14968 Fritz Cir · Gulfport, MS 39503

$289,515

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,029 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 7,840 sqft lot $143/sqft · at area comps Est $292k · at est. $27/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY! Welcome to the beautifully designed 2029 Plan--a spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home perfectly positioned on a desirable corner lot, offering added privacy, extra yard space, and standout curb appeal. Six-foot wooden fence with a double gate on the side and a single gate on the other side. This thoughtful two-story layout blends open-concept living with smart functionality, creating a home that lives comfortably and impresses from the moment you step inside. The main level features a bright, inviting flow anchored by a generous great room that opens seamlessly to the dining area and a well-appointed kitchen. A walk-in pantry, convenient half bath, and access to both the covered porch and rear patio make everyday living effortless. The corner-lot orientation brings in natural light from multiple angles, enhancing the openness of the main living spaces. Upstairs, all four bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged for comfort and privacy. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with its own bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms share a centrally located full bath, and the dedicated laundry room adds everyday convenience. With a 2-car garage, trey ceiling details, and a layout designed for both style and practicality, this home delivers the space today's buyers want--inside and out. The corner lot provides a wider presence, flexible outdoor possibilities, and a standout setting within the neighborhood. A perfect blend of comfort, function, and modern design. Located in a country setting yet minutes away from shopping, entertainment, beaches and casinos.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Open concept living
• Rear patio

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING
• WALK IN PANTRY
• COVERED PORCH
• REAR PATIO
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-202 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#15 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Harrison County School District (rural): math 52% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #14 of 130 in MS (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.0%/yr); 763 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,194 units permitted in Harrison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harrison County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $231,119 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.99%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,156
• List price: $289,515
• Delta: -0.90%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14864 Fritz Cir	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,930 (-5%)	3mo	$270,250	$140	84
14892 Fritz Cir	0.01mi	4/2.0	2,202 (+8%)	3mo	$292,525	$133	81
14836 Fritz Cir	0.08mi	4/2.0	2,202 (+8%)	0mo	$307,231	$140	80
14940 Fritz Cir	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,200 (+8%)	3mo	$278,975	$127	78
14169 Hartland Dr	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,200 (+8%)	2mo	$283,230	$129	77
14175 Hartland Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,820 (-10%)	1mo	$247,500	$136	75
14141 Hartland Dr	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,200 (+8%)	2mo	$284,086	$129	75
14151 Hartland Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,820 (-10%)	2mo	$249,900	$137	72
14837 Fritz Cir	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,300 (+13%)	1mo	$311,325	$135	71
14884 Fritz Cir	0.07mi	4/3.0	2,300 (+13%)	2mo	$307,475	$134	71
14456 N Swan Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-11%)	2mo	$265,000	$147	64
14423 S Swan Rd	0.67mi	4/3.0	2,304 (+14%)	4mo	$373,900	$162	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-50,073
• Equity at exit: $43,168

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-16,955
• Equity at exit: $25,032

Cash invested: $81,064 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39503

• Home prices YoY: -21.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 763
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,311 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,518
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$362 /mo · $4,343/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$27
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,567

Max offer price $260,296

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2	-5% $-102	+0% $-202	+5% $-302	+10% $-402
Rent	-10% $-385	-5% $-293	+0% $-202	+5% $-111	+10% $-19
Rate	-1.0pp $-56	-0.5pp $-128	base $-202	+0.5pp $-277	+1.0pp $-353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,379
• Closing costs: $8,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15033 S White Swan Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.5	1933	$2,495	$1.29	21d	1	0.48mi
15336 Lakeview Ct Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1837	$2,195	$1.19	21d	1	0.49mi
15740 Rachael Dr Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	1928	$2,400	$1.24	14d	1	0.85mi
13518 Huntington Cir Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	2084	$1,950	$0.94	44d	1	1.15mi
15395 Percy St Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,975	$1.15	44d	1	1.39mi
14348 Atwood Cv Gulfport, MS	3.0	2.0	2145	$2,150	$1.00	44d	1	1.46mi
14347 Atwood Cv Gulfport, MS	4.0	2.0	2133	$2,175	$1.02	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $27 · $324/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 1619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1619 chars)

   MOVE IN READY! Welcome to the beautifully designed 2029 Plan--a spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home perfectly positioned on a desirable corner lot, offering added privacy, extra yard space, and standout curb appeal. Six-foot wooden fence with a double gate on the side and a single gate on the other side. This thoughtful two-story layout blends open-concept living with smart functionality, creating a home that lives comfortably and impresses from the moment you step inside. The main level features a bright, inviting flow anchored by a generous great room that opens seamlessly to the dining area and a well-appointed kitchen. A walk-in pantry, convenient half bath, and access to both the covered porch and rear patio make everyday living effortless. The corner-lot orientation brings in natural light from multiple angles, enhancing the openness of the main living spaces. Upstairs, all four bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged for comfort and privacy. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with its own bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms share a centrally located full bath, and the dedicated laundry room adds everyday convenience. With a 2-car garage, trey ceiling details, and a layout designed for both style and practicality, this home delivers the space today's buyers want--inside and out. The corner lot provides a wider presence, flexible outdoor possibilities, and a standout setting within the neighborhood. A perfect blend of comfort, function, and modern design. Located in a country setting yet minutes away from shopping, entertainment, beaches and casinos.

2. 2026-05-06
   price $289,515 1619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1619 chars)

   MOVE IN READY! Welcome to the beautifully designed 2029 Plan--a spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home perfectly positioned on a desirable corner lot, offering added privacy, extra yard space, and standout curb appeal. Six-foot wooden fence with a double gate on the side and a single gate on the other side. This thoughtful two-story layout blends open-concept living with smart functionality, creating a home that lives comfortably and impresses from the moment you step inside. The main level features a bright, inviting flow anchored by a generous great room that opens seamlessly to the dining area and a well-appointed kitchen. A walk-in pantry, convenient half bath, and access to both the covered porch and rear patio make everyday living effortless. The corner-lot orientation brings in natural light from multiple angles, enhancing the openness of the main living spaces. Upstairs, all four bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged for comfort and privacy. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with its own bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms share a centrally located full bath, and the dedicated laundry room adds everyday convenience. With a 2-car garage, trey ceiling details, and a layout designed for both style and practicality, this home delivers the space today's buyers want--inside and out. The corner lot provides a wider presence, flexible outdoor possibilities, and a standout setting within the neighborhood. A perfect blend of comfort, function, and modern design. Located in a country setting yet minutes away from shopping, entertainment, beaches and casinos.

3. 2026-04-19
   price $286,515 1619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1619 chars)

   MOVE IN READY! Welcome to the beautifully designed 2029 Plan--a spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home perfectly positioned on a desirable corner lot, offering added privacy, extra yard space, and standout curb appeal. Six-foot wooden fence with a double gate on the side and a single gate on the other side. This thoughtful two-story layout blends open-concept living with smart functionality, creating a home that lives comfortably and impresses from the moment you step inside. The main level features a bright, inviting flow anchored by a generous great room that opens seamlessly to the dining area and a well-appointed kitchen. A walk-in pantry, convenient half bath, and access to both the covered porch and rear patio make everyday living effortless. The corner-lot orientation brings in natural light from multiple angles, enhancing the openness of the main living spaces. Upstairs, all four bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged for comfort and privacy. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with its own bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms share a centrally located full bath, and the dedicated laundry room adds everyday convenience. With a 2-car garage, trey ceiling details, and a layout designed for both style and practicality, this home delivers the space today's buyers want--inside and out. The corner lot provides a wider presence, flexible outdoor possibilities, and a standout setting within the neighborhood. A perfect blend of comfort, function, and modern design. Located in a country setting yet minutes away from shopping, entertainment, beaches and casinos.

4. 2026-04-10
   price $280,975 1619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1619 chars)

   MOVE IN READY! Welcome to the beautifully designed 2029 Plan--a spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home perfectly positioned on a desirable corner lot, offering added privacy, extra yard space, and standout curb appeal. Six-foot wooden fence with a double gate on the side and a single gate on the other side. This thoughtful two-story layout blends open-concept living with smart functionality, creating a home that lives comfortably and impresses from the moment you step inside. The main level features a bright, inviting flow anchored by a generous great room that opens seamlessly to the dining area and a well-appointed kitchen. A walk-in pantry, convenient half bath, and access to both the covered porch and rear patio make everyday living effortless. The corner-lot orientation brings in natural light from multiple angles, enhancing the openness of the main living spaces. Upstairs, all four bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged for comfort and privacy. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with its own bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms share a centrally located full bath, and the dedicated laundry room adds everyday convenience. With a 2-car garage, trey ceiling details, and a layout designed for both style and practicality, this home delivers the space today's buyers want--inside and out. The corner lot provides a wider presence, flexible outdoor possibilities, and a standout setting within the neighborhood. A perfect blend of comfort, function, and modern design. Located in a country setting yet minutes away from shopping, entertainment, beaches and casinos.

5. 2026-04-07
   listed $277,975 Active 1619-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1619 chars)

   MOVE IN READY! Welcome to the beautifully designed 2029 Plan--a spacious 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home perfectly positioned on a desirable corner lot, offering added privacy, extra yard space, and standout curb appeal. Six-foot wooden fence with a double gate on the side and a single gate on the other side. This thoughtful two-story layout blends open-concept living with smart functionality, creating a home that lives comfortably and impresses from the moment you step inside. The main level features a bright, inviting flow anchored by a generous great room that opens seamlessly to the dining area and a well-appointed kitchen. A walk-in pantry, convenient half bath, and access to both the covered porch and rear patio make everyday living effortless. The corner-lot orientation brings in natural light from multiple angles, enhancing the openness of the main living spaces. Upstairs, all four bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged for comfort and privacy. The primary suite offers a peaceful retreat with its own bathroom and a spacious walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms share a centrally located full bath, and the dedicated laundry room adds everyday convenience. With a 2-car garage, trey ceiling details, and a layout designed for both style and practicality, this home delivers the space today's buyers want--inside and out. The corner lot provides a wider presence, flexible outdoor possibilities, and a standout setting within the neighborhood. A perfect blend of comfort, function, and modern design. Located in a country setting yet minutes away from shopping, entertainment, beaches and casinos.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,217
• − Property taxes: −$4,343
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,219
• − Management: −$2,219
• − HOA: −$324
• − Depreciation: −$8,422
• Taxable loss: −$7,457
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,790
• After-tax cash flow: $-633/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This move-in ready home features a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a spacious layout. Potential buyers and renters will appreciate the curb appeal and the opportunity to add small updates for a fresh look.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the appeal of the property and provide additional living space for residents.
• Both Upgrading the lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can enhance the overall aesthetic and functionality of the home.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a small outdoor seating area — This can increase the appeal of the property and provide additional living space for residents. ↑
• Both Upgrading the lighting fixtures — Modern lighting can enhance the overall aesthetic and functionality of the home. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harrison County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801770
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,504
• Composite: 41.66/100
• National rank: #3419
• State rank: #14 of 130 in MS

Livability — Gulfport

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #5010

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harrison County · 178,171 people
• City population: 96,188
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• Population (ZIP): 55,059
• Household income: $62,641
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1686.0

Population outlook (Harrison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,444 people
• By 2030: 241,942 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 267,531 · +17.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +27.4%
• By 2075: 346,711 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 378,165 · +65.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harrison

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.9) · D 35.0% · R 63.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.9pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -28.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.9 2020: R+25.2 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+26.6 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.39%
• Current HPI: 187.285
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.99%
• Metro: Gulfport-Biloxi, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+4.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $289,515 MLSU
• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $286,515 MLSU
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $280,975 MLSU
• 2026-04-07 Listed $277,975 MLSU