8440 Sitting Bull Cv · Hernando, MS 38632

$190,000

3 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,233 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1976 Est $243k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FANNIE MAE - GREAT DEAL ON THIS UNIQUE SHAPED OCTAGON HOME LOCATED ON THE LAKE. HOME FEATURES A WALK AROUND DECK ON THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL. BOAT DOCK

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Lake community
• Lake front

Tags

• LAKE FRONT
• DOUBLE LOT
• WRAPAROUND DECK
• METAL ROOF
• OPEN KITCHEN
• LAKE COMMUNITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $463 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $187k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.2% in Hernando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#44 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Desoto County School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #20 of 130 in MS (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.4%/yr); 403 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,155 units permitted in DeSoto County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• DeSoto County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $76k; list at $190k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,150 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.45%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $242,901
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
537 Thunderbird Dr	0.33mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,258 (+2%)	4mo	$250,000	$199	65
614 Red Fox Cv	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-3%)	15mo	$249,900	$208	55
296 Thunderbird Dr N	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,261 (+2%)	21mo	$239,900	$190	42
8819 Howling Fox Cv	0.30mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,397 (+13%)	16mo	$275,000	$197	40
8647 E Thunderbird Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,322 (+7%)	18mo	$239,900	$181	40
573 S Thunderbird Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,325 (+8%)	18mo	$269,900	$204	36
793 Chickadee Cv	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+14%)	18mo	$205,000	$146	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-7,557
• Equity at exit: $28,330

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $7,161
• Equity at exit: $16,428

Cash invested: $53,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38632

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 403
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,133 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$146 /mo · $1,751/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $463

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,546

Max offer price $190,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,500
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $190,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $190,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $190,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $190,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $190,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $190,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $190,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $190,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $190,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $190,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $190,000 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $190,000 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $190,000 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $190,000 Active
15. 2005-08-04
    soldstatus 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    FANNIE MAE - GREAT DEAL ON THIS UNIQUE SHAPED OCTAGON HOME LOCATED ON THE LAKE. HOME FEATURES A WALK AROUND DECK ON THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL. BOAT DOCK

16. 2005-05-31
    listed $117,500 152-char remark

    Show marketing remark (152 chars)

    FANNIE MAE - GREAT DEAL ON THIS UNIQUE SHAPED OCTAGON HOME LOCATED ON THE LAKE. HOME FEATURES A WALK AROUND DECK ON THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL. BOAT DOCK

17. 2005-03-28
    soldstatus $76,387

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,751 · $146/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,751 · $146/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 18% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,590
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,643
• − Property taxes: −$1,751
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable income: $2,625
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$630
• After-tax cash flow: $4,929/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto County School District
• NCES district ID: 2801320
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $59,272
• Composite: 39.56/100
• National rank: #3933
• State rank: #20 of 130 in MS

Livability — Hernando

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #44
• US rank: #8034

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: DeSoto County · 176,513 people
• City population: 31,374
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 31,374
• Household income: $93,583
• Rent vs Own: 11.8% rent · 88.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 24.0

Population outlook (DeSoto County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 203,338 people
• By 2030: 217,692 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 245,320 · +20.6%
• By 2050: 270,133 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 323,341 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 348,742 · +71.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 13% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · DeSoto

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 36.7% · R 60.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.2pp toward D · 2008: -38.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.9 2016: R+34.8 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+38.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.49%
• Current HPI: 176.8843
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.43%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+148.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $190,000 FSBO.com
• 2005-08-04 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2005-05-31 Listed $117,500 MLSU
• 2005-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $76,387 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,751 · +15.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.