1378 S Avenida Polar Unit L-3 · Tucson, AZ 85710

$105,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,150 sqft · Townhouse · 98 Days on market

Built 1964 $91/sqft · 32% below area Est $154k · 32% under $485/mo HOA · 32% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-kept unit, updated kitchen, double pane windows, covered patio- convenient to parking! Community Pool, well maintained grounds, Monthly fee covers-heating & cooling, water, gas, exterior roof & common areas.

Key facts

• $485 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1964

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-191/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (2.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 210 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $57k; list at $105k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 4→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $95,550 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.65%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,338
• List price: $105,000
• Delta: -31.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1354 S Avenida Polar Unit H8	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,150 (0%)	7mo	$148,000	$129	92
1354 S Avenida Polar Unit H5	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,150 (0%)	15mo	$157,230	$137	85
1330 S Avenida Polar Unit E-4	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,050 (-9%)	13mo	$138,000	$131	74
1330 S Avenida Polar Unit E12	0.00mi	2/1.5 (-1)	985 (-14%)	4mo	$132,000	$134	68
1306 S Avenida Polar Unit B2	0.08mi	2/2.0 (-1)	985 (-14%)	3mo	$155,000	$157	63
1250 S Sahuara Ave	0.65mi	2/2.0 (-1)	986 (-14%)	10mo	$220,000	$223	31
1258 S Sahuara Ave	0.65mi	2/1.0 (-1)	999 (-13%)	16mo	$165,000	$165	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-19,795
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-25,565
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85710

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,575/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$485
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,532

Max offer price $102,694

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6402 E Calle Altair Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1170	$1,850	$1.58	44d	1	0.09mi
1051 S Duke Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,595	$1.14	20d	1	0.30mi
6508 E Calle Dened Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1066	$1,741	$1.63	12d	1	0.38mi
6122 E Sylvane St Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	1007	$1,560	$1.55	3d	1	0.42mi
1733 S Avenida Regulo Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1215	$1,620	$1.33	44d	1	0.48mi
6225 E Calle Aurora Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1144	$1,595	$1.39	44d	1	0.50mi
6158 E 31st St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,800	$1.27	44d	1	0.60mi
1833 S Poetry Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	0.63mi
1312 S Sahuara Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	730	$1,290	$1.77	3d	1	0.63mi
1266 S Sahuara Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	986	$1,195	$1.21	24d	1	0.64mi
5758 E 24th St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	860	$1,175	$1.37	44d	1	0.77mi
822 S Langley Ave #207 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,050	$1.11	3d	1	0.79mi
822 S Langley Ave #207 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	948	$1,175	$1.24	24d	1	0.79mi
834 S Langley Ave #201 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	970	$1,200	$1.24	44d	1	0.80mi
5737 E 24th St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	873	$1,200	$1.37	44d	1	0.80mi
820 S Langley Ave Unit 204 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	945	$1,100	$1.16	12d	1	0.83mi
5711 E 26th St Apt B Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$800	$1.14	44d	1	0.84mi
2020 S Avenida Ursa Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,795	$1.20	44d	1	0.84mi
808 S Langley Ave Unit 201 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	945	$1,050	$1.11	24d	1	0.84mi
808 S Langley Ave Unit 106 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	945	$1,175	$1.24	2d	1	0.84mi
5706 E 24th St Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	784	$1,250	$1.59	12d	1	0.84mi
816 S Langley Ave #204 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	945	$1,800	$1.90	44d	1	0.88mi
816 S Langley Ave #203 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	945	$1,050	$1.11	24d	1	0.88mi
1809 S Van Buren Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	816	$995	$1.22	16d	1	0.90mi
6625 E Golf Links Rd #2 Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	849	$995	$1.17	12d	1	0.91mi
810 S Kolb Rd Unit 4 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	44d	1	0.92mi
6091 E Golf Links Rd Unit 6121-14 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	810	$1,139	$1.41	24d	1	0.92mi
6091 E Golf Links Rd Unit 6141-06 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,270	$1.41	24d	1	0.92mi
6502 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	550	$1,009	$1.83	10d	12	0.97mi
5723 E 19th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1211	$2,350	$1.94	44d	1	0.97mi
5674 E Eastland St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,645	$1.15	44d	1	1.02mi
1345 S Kolb Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,399	$1.33	44d	1	1.05mi
5828 E 35th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.0	949	$1,650	$1.74	15d	1	1.05mi
6940 E Julia St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1457	$1,950	$1.34	3d	1	1.06mi
7237 E Pierce Pl Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1161	$2,055	$1.77	16d	1	1.07mi
1704 S Jefferson Ave Unit WI1710-6 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	44d	1	1.07mi
5547 E 29th St Unit 1 Tucson, AZ	3.0	1.5	1175	$995	$0.85	10d	1	1.10mi
5624 E 18th St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,300	$1.58	20d	1	1.12mi
7001 E Golf Links Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,371	$1.55	2d	9	1.16mi
1401 S Woodland Ave Unit 1401 Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	830	$700	$0.84	24d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $485 · $5,820/yr
• Likely covers: watergaslandscapingpool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $105,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $105,000 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-04-18
    price $109,000 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Well-kept unit, updated kitchen, double pane windows, covered patio- convenient to parking! Community Pool, well maintained grounds, Monthly fee covers-heating & cooling, water, gas, exterior roof & common areas.

16. 2026-03-12
    listed $120,000 Active 220-char remark

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Well-kept unit, updated kitchen, double pane windows, covered patio- convenient to parking! Community Pool, well maintained grounds, Monthly fee covers-heating & cooling, water, gas, exterior roof & common areas.

17. 2005-10-24
    soldstatus $57,000 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Cash only please. No financing,no rentals. Well kept unit, new kitchen, double pane windows, covered patio, Sparkling Comm. pool, well maintained grounds. Monthly fee covers-heating & cooling, water, gas, exterior, roof, common areas, and part of PITI. Where else in Tucson can you get such quality for under $80,000

18. 2005-07-02
    listed $60,000 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Cash only please. No financing,no rentals. Well kept unit, new kitchen, double pane windows, covered patio, Sparkling Comm. pool, well maintained grounds. Monthly fee covers-heating & cooling, water, gas, exterior, roof, common areas, and part of PITI. Where else in Tucson can you get such quality for under $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥105°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$1,575
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − HOA: −$5,820
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable loss: −$1,612
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$387
• After-tax cash flow: $196/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 56,125
• Household income: $57,175
• Rent vs Own: 45.5% rent · 54.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 3888.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 11% Arabic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -287.68%
• Current HPI: 291.8039
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.61%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+81.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Price Changed $109,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-12 Listed $120,000 MLSSAZ
• 2005-10-24 Sold (MLS) $57,000 MLSSAZ
• 2005-07-02 Listed $60,000 MLSSAZ