1830 E Yosemite Ave #116 · Manteca, CA 95336

$149,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Built 1974 Good condition $104/sqft · 14% above area Est $132k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +1.4/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A Must See with updates throughout! Welcome to El Rancho Mobile Home Park, one of the best Senior Parks in the area with gated security. Nice open floor plan with great room concept and space for dining adjacent to your updated/remodeled kitchen. Kitchen consists of shaker style cabinets, pull outs, pantry, island, updated countertops and stainless-steel B/I appliances. There is also a space for formal dining! Both bedrooms have their own full bath and are on the opposite side of home for privacy. Large Master Suite with walk-in closet, full bath with dual sinks and slider to access backyard. Other bedroom is of good size as well. This home offers new windows throughout, updated kitchen, e

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Gated security
• Formal dining space

Tags

• GATED SECURITY
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• FORMAL DINING SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $796 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.7% vs local median 2.7% in Manteca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#535 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools D+, amenities D, commute F.
• Manteca Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #297 of 517 in CA (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 270 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($89k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,451 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.76%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $132,002
• List price: $149,950
• Delta: 13.60%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1830 E Yosemite #128	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	2mo	$100,000	$69	97
1830 Yosemite Ave #4	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$131,000	$97	88
1830 E Yosemite Ave #275	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	8mo	$114,000	$76	87
1830 E Yosemite Ave #1	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,444 (+0%)	14mo	$232,000	$161	85
1830 E Yosemite Ave #257	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+3%)	11mo	$143,500	$96	85
1830 E Yosemite #207	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	7mo	$148,000	$96	83
1830 E Yosemite Ave #137	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	17mo	$125,000	$87	81
1830 E Yosemite Ave #68	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,300 (-10%)	6mo	$135,000	$104	78
1830 Yosemite Ave #118	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,624 (+13%)	10mo	$207,000	$127	68
150 Pestana Ave #25	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$125,000	$87	68
150 Pestana #34	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	19mo	$149,888	$104	64
150 Pestana #21	0.30mi	2/1.5	1,248 (-13%)	6mo	$87,000	$70	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $19,664
• Equity at exit: $22,358

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $56,309
• Equity at exit: $12,965

Cash invested: $41,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95336

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 270
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,320 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$187 /mo · $2,249/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$487
• Net cashflow: $796

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $149,950

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $900	-5% $848	+0% $796	+5% $745	+10% $693
Rent	-10% $613	-5% $705	+0% $796	+5% $888	+10% $980
Rate	-1.0pp $872	-0.5pp $835	base $796	+0.5pp $758	+1.0pp $718

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,488
• Closing costs: $4,498
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1815 Azure Ct Unit C Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,800	$1.29	19d	1	0.30mi
2054 Hyannis Cir Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1664	$2,495	$1.50	19d	1	0.31mi
200 Northwoods Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,675	$1.86	4d	1	0.40mi
1634 Sierra Creek Dr Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1411	$3,100	$2.20	19d	1	0.79mi
311 Charles Ave Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1092	$2,750	$2.52	24d	1	0.83mi
794 Button Ave Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	1075	$2,300	$2.14	15d	1	1.05mi
1005 E Atherton Dr Manteca, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1008	$2,495	$2.47	0d	6	1.15mi
801 Atherton Dr Manteca, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	977	$2,695	$2.76	3d	8	1.26mi
522 Dawn Dr Manteca, CA	3.0	2.5	1687	$2,500	$1.48	44d	1	1.30mi
225 N Fremont St Manteca, CA	2.0	2.0	926	$1,875	$2.02	44d	1	1.31mi
708 Meadow Way Manteca, CA	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,750	$1.49	15d	1	1.45mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,400
• − Property taxes: −$2,249
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,227
• − Management: −$2,227
• − Depreciation: −$4,362
• Taxable income: $7,624
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,830
• After-tax cash flow: $7,728/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a solid investment with potential for both resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves tenant satisfaction and retention

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Replace carpet — Fresh carpet improves tenant satisfaction and retention ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manteca Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623610
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,426
• Composite: 28.5/100
• National rank: #6737
• State rank: #297 of 517 in CA

Livability — Manteca

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #17877

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manteca, CA
• County: San Joaquin County · 729,570 people
• City population: 98,916
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• Population (ZIP): 50,185
• Household income: $89,172
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 876.0

Population outlook (San Joaquin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 796,965 people
• By 2030: 828,849 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 885,611 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 929,798 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 994,578 · +24.8%
• By 2100: 971,291 · +21.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 42% Two or more races 18% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 23% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Joaquin

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 48.9% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: 10.7pp · 2024: -0.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+0.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+12.9 2012: D+8.9 2008: D+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -407.05%
• Current HPI: 268.5708
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Stockton, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B