240 E Elm Dr · Callender Lake, TX 75778

$78,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 952 sqft · Manufactured public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1977 0.88 ac lot $82/sqft · 212% above area $30/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY – Rare chance to acquire four lots for the price of one in the gated Hickory Hills HOA on Callender Lake in Murchison, TX. This corner property includes a 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with lake views and road frontage on all four lots. Property is currently occupied. The home needs repairs and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors, flippers, or developers. Keep and renovate the existing home, or remove the home and split into four individual buildable lots — strong upside potential either way. This Subdivision allows for Tiny Homes, RVs, Mobile Homes are all allowed. HOA amenities include private gated access, private boat ramp, swimming pool, park, and large pavilion. Property features a fenced backyard, storage building, large tornado shelter, and wood-burning stove in the living area. Road access is solid, utilities connected, and the rear of the property offers mature trees with a creek running behind all four lots, adding value, privacy, and drainage. Lake-area demand plus gated access makes this a strong long-term hold, flip, or resale play. Priced for condition and potential. Bring offers.

Key facts

• Lake views
• Storage building
• Wood-burning stove

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• ROAD FRONTAGE
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STORAGE BUILDING
• TORNADO SHELTER
• WOOD-BURNING STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $364 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.2% in Callender Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,447 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Van ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($539 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $68,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.02%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $25,000
• List price: $78,000
• Delta: 212.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $39,407
• Equity at exit: $42,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.58×
• Total profit: $100,038
• Equity at exit: $71,410

Cash invested: $21,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75778

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax from tax record: −$92 /mo · $1,106/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $364

Break-even live

Break-even rent $714

Max offer price $78,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,500
• Closing costs: $2,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $78,000 Active 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $78,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,000 Active 150 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $78,000 Active 148 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,000 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $78,000 Active 145 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,000 Active 144 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $78,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $78,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,000 Active 135 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $78,000 Active 134 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $78,000 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY – Rare chance to acquire four lots for the price of one in the gated Hickory Hills HOA on Callender Lake in Murchison, TX. This corner property includes a 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with lake views and road frontage on all four lots. Property is currently occupied. The home needs repairs and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors, flippers, or developers. Keep and renovate the existing home, or remove the home and split into four individual buildable lots — strong upside potential either way. This Subdivision allows for Tiny Homes, RVs, Mobile Homes are all allowed. HOA amenities include private gated access, private boat ramp, swimming pool, park, and large pavilion. Property features a fenced backyard, storage building, large tornado shelter, and wood-burning stove in the living area. Road access is solid, utilities connected, and the rear of the property offers mature trees with a creek running behind all four lots, adding value, privacy, and drainage. Lake-area demand plus gated access makes this a strong long-term hold, flip, or resale play. Priced for condition and potential. Bring offers.

17. 2026-04-30
    price $78,000 1160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1160 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY – Rare chance to acquire four lots for the price of one in the gated Hickory Hills HOA on Callender Lake in Murchison, TX. This corner property includes a 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with lake views and road frontage on all four lots. Property is currently occupied. The home needs repairs and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors, flippers, or developers. Keep and renovate the existing home, or remove the home and split into four individual buildable lots — strong upside potential either way. This Subdivision allows for Tiny Homes, RVs, Mobile Homes are all allowed. HOA amenities include private gated access, private boat ramp, swimming pool, park, and large pavilion. Property features a fenced backyard, storage building, large tornado shelter, and wood-burning stove in the living area. Road access is solid, utilities connected, and the rear of the property offers mature trees with a creek running behind all four lots, adding value, privacy, and drainage. Lake-area demand plus gated access makes this a strong long-term hold, flip, or resale play. Priced for condition and potential. Bring offers.

18. 2026-01-17
    listed $88,000 Active 1160-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1160 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY – Rare chance to acquire four lots for the price of one in the gated Hickory Hills HOA on Callender Lake in Murchison, TX. This corner property includes a 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with lake views and road frontage on all four lots. Property is currently occupied. The home needs repairs and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors, flippers, or developers. Keep and renovate the existing home, or remove the home and split into four individual buildable lots — strong upside potential either way. This Subdivision allows for Tiny Homes, RVs, Mobile Homes are all allowed. HOA amenities include private gated access, private boat ramp, swimming pool, park, and large pavilion. Property features a fenced backyard, storage building, large tornado shelter, and wood-burning stove in the living area. Road access is solid, utilities connected, and the rear of the property offers mature trees with a creek running behind all four lots, adding value, privacy, and drainage. Lake-area demand plus gated access makes this a strong long-term hold, flip, or resale play. Priced for condition and potential. Bring offers.

19. 2026-01-16
    listed $88,000 Active 1162-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1162 chars)

    INVESTOR OPPORTUNITY – Rare chance to acquire four lots for the price of one in the gated Hickory Hills HOA on Callender Lake in Murchison, TX. This corner property includes a 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home with lake views and road frontage on all four lots. Property is currently occupied. The home needs repairs and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors, flippers, or developers. Keep and renovate the existing home, or remove the home and split into four individual buildable lots — strong upside potential either way. This Subdivision allows for Tiny Homes, RVs, Mobile Homes are all allowed. HOA amenities include private gated access, private boat ramp, swimming pool, park, and large pavilion. Property features a fenced backyard, storage building, large tornado shelter, and wood-burning stove in the living area. Road access is solid, utilities connected, and the rear of the property offers mature trees with a creek running behind all four lots, adding value, privacy, and drainage. Lake-area demand plus gated access makes this a strong long-term hold, flip, or resale play. Priced for condition and potential. Bring offers.

20. 2025-03-03
    price $79,900
21. 2020-08-26
    soldstatus
22. 2018-08-27
    soldstatus
23. 2018-08-24
    soldstatus
24. 2018-08-24
    soldstatus
25. 2018-08-14
    listed $35,900
26. 2018-06-22
    listed $35,900
27. 2016-08-22
    soldstatus
28. 1996-07-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,427 · $119/mo
• Expected delta: +$321/yr (+$27/mo · 29.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,098
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,369
• − Property taxes: −$1,106
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$2,269
• Taxable income: $3,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$804
• After-tax cash flow: $3,569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843920
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,308
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5120
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Callender Lake

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1447
• US rank: #24766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Callender Lake, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,987

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.59%
• Current HPI: 216.4151
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+117.3% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $78,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $78,000 GTAR
• 2026-01-17 Listed $88,000 GTAR
• 2026-01-16 Listed $88,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-03 Price Changed $79,900 GTAR
• 2020-08-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-27 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-24 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2018-08-24 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2018-08-14 Listed $35,900 GTAR
• 2018-06-22 Listed $35,900 HCBOR
• 2016-08-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-07-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,106 · +180.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.