1626 Redfin Dr · Poinciana, FL 34759

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,286 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 2021 8,002 sqft lot $140/mo HOA · 7% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. BEAUTIFUL HOME ON SHORT SALE — GREAT OPPORTUNITY! ? Experience modern comfort in this beautiful 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom single-family home built in 2021. This move-in-ready residence offers 1,286 sq. ft. of bright, open living space designed for effortless entertaining and everyday convenience. Enjoy a spacious kitchen, a private primary suite, a flexible floor plan, and a built-in Smart Home system for enhanced comfort and security. The large backyard provides plenty of space for outdoor activities, gardening, or future upgrades, while the attached 2-car garage offers added storage and convenience. Located in the desirable Association of Poincia

Key facts

• Community amenities
• Spacious kitchen
• Large backyard

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• BUILT-IN SMART HOME SYSTEM
• LARGE BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Owner-occupied (homestead indicated)
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $140 (The Poinciana Community); Association fees are required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single Family Residence; One-story; South-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built by Moranda Homes
• Exterior features: Irrigation equipment; Paved road access; Lot approximately 0.18 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric water heater; Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-179 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $203k (13.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $194k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $194k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 4.3% in Poinciana — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,935 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-37,590
• Equity at exit: $51,376

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-47,074
• Equity at exit: $49,512

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,939 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,887/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$407
• Net cashflow: $-179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,166

Max offer price $203,421

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-112	+0% $-179	+5% $-245	+10% $-312
Rent	-10% $-332	-5% $-255	+0% $-179	+5% $-102	+10% $-26
Rate	-1.0pp $-60	-0.5pp $-119	base $-179	+0.5pp $-240	+1.0pp $-302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1658 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,810	$1.09	3d	1	0.05mi
1660 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,975	$1.19	3d	1	0.06mi
1662 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1852	$1,940	$1.05	24d	1	0.08mi
1701 Pilchard Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,050	$1.19	24d	1	0.20mi
1613 Sail Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1711	$1,625	$0.95	24d	1	0.23mi
1731 Minnow Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,750	$1.45	24d	1	0.28mi
1637 Sail Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,720	$1.38	3d	1	0.31mi
116 Sail Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,805	$1.09	12d	1	0.32mi
1707 Sail Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,015	$1.11	3d	1	0.33mi
223 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,595	$1.08	24d	1	0.38mi
241 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1762	$2,000	$1.14	24d	1	0.42mi
202 Snapper Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,050	$1.23	3d	1	0.44mi
260 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$1,400	$1.24	3d	1	0.45mi
1884 Snapper Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1682	$1,985	$1.18	15d	1	0.50mi
205 Dogfish Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,680	$1.06	14d	1	0.52mi
10 Trout Way Unit B Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,749	$1.51	21d	1	0.53mi
10 Trout Way Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,750	$1.51	24d	1	0.53mi
12 Trout Way Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,750	$1.51	21d	1	0.54mi
12 Trout Way Unit B Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,750	$1.51	24d	1	0.54mi
16 Trout Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1304	$1,775	$1.36	3d	1	0.57mi
12 Herring Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1055	$1,613	$1.53	24d	1	0.58mi
106 Herring Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1062	$1,575	$1.48	3d	1	0.58mi
104 Herring Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,925	$1.13	3d	1	0.58mi
21 Trout Way Unit A Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,750	$1.51	24d	1	0.60mi
352 Kingfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,950	$1.17	24d	1	0.73mi
320 Kingfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	3.0	1606	$1,795	$1.12	24d	1	0.73mi
308 Bass Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,850	$1.15	24d	1	0.74mi
308 Bass Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1614	$2,100	$1.30	3d	1	0.74mi
310 Dogfish Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	24d	1	0.75mi
5 Flatfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,150	$1.30	24d	1	0.76mi
321 Drum Ln Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1785	$1,715	$0.96	19d	1	0.77mi
1406 Orlando Pl Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,450	$1.15	3d	1	0.77mi
8 Flatfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,650	$1.19	3d	1	0.80mi
313 Amberjack Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,750	$1.41	24d	1	0.86mi
149 Conch Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,700	$1.08	19d	1	0.98mi
1364 Congo Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	3d	1	1.02mi
557 Peace Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$1,699	$1.10	3d	1	1.04mi
1907 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	24d	1	1.06mi
1805 Hudson Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1531	$1,835	$1.20	24d	1	1.08mi
1417 Kissimmee Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,629	$1.06	24d	1	1.08mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Active
2. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-18
   price $235,000
4. 2026-03-18
   status Active
5. 2026-02-18
   historical
6. 2026-02-04
   price $260,000
7. 2026-01-06
   price $270,000
8. 2025-11-28
   listed $275,000 Active
9. 2022-08-21
   soldstatus $220,240
10. 2022-08-21
    listed $220,240
11. 2021-01-27
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,887 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,887 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,272
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,887
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,862
• − Management: −$1,862
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$6,193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,486
• After-tax cash flow: $-659/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+683.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-06 Price Changed $270,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-28 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-21 Listed $220,240 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-21 Sold (MLS) $220,240 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-27 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+32.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,887 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.