15 Kenwood Rd · Kenmore, NY 14217

$274,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,776 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1956 4,357 sqft lot Est $270k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +6.7/15.0
• Rent growth +4.9/5.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

LOCATION! NICELY MAINTAINED FOR 25 YEARS FOYER ENTRANCE CARPETED - LOWER -LIVING, DINING, EAT-IN KITCHEN, 2 BEDROOMS, BATH/TUB AND SHOWER. LONG TERM TENANT - UPPER - SAME FLOOR PLAN - BOTH HAVE LARGE LIVING ROOMS, KICHENS. ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS AND MOLDINGS THROUGHOUT. BASEMENT - SUMP CERTIFIED 5/2026 - NEW FORCED HOT AIR FURNACES - 2 NEW HOT WATER TANKS ALL 5 YEARS - SUMP TO CODE 5/2026 - CIRCUIT BREAKES 2005. DETACHED TWO CAR GARAGE, CONCRETE DRIVEWAY - LONG TERM TENANTS WOULD LIKE TO REMAIN.

Key facts

• 4,357 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1956

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Owner pays garage and water; Rent includes parking and water; Operating expenses may include advertising, insurance, and water/sewer; Two units with separate gas and electric meters; Unit rents reported: Unit 1 actual rent $600; Unit 2 actual rent $320 (Unit 2 is month-to-month)

Exterior

• Parking: Concrete driveway; Garage with garage door opener; Two or more parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Two-story building; Residential 2-unit property; Resale condition
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt shingle roof; Poured foundation; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Partial fence; Covered porch; Porch; Near public transit; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Unit 1: Refrigerator, Eat-in kitchen, Dining area with living room; Unit 2: Oven/Range, Refrigerator, Eat-in kitchen, Dining area with living room
• Bedrooms: Two 2-bedroom units (each unit listed with 2 bedrooms)
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms total (each unit has 1 full bathroom)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Natural woodwork
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-136 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $251k (8.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $262k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.0% in Kenmore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#114 in NY, #1,843 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D-, commute F.
• Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District (suburban): math 44% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #453 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.8%/yr); 99 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($74k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $250,889 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.12%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $269,952
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Tremont Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,896 (+7%)	1mo	$331,000	$175	71
104 Shepard Ave	0.25mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,633 (-8%)	8mo	$278,000	$170	63
130 W Hazeltine Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,806 (+2%)	4mo	$246,000	$136	63
79 Lincoln Blvd	0.39mi	4/2.0	1,968 (+11%)	2mo	$260,000	$132	62
86 Pullman Ave	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,792 (+1%)	6mo	$315,000	$176	61
120 Victoria Blvd	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,592 (-10%)	8mo	$300,000	$188	57
204 E Hazeltine Ave	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,733 (-2%)	9mo	$270,000	$156	55
180 Euclid Ave	0.62mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,836 (+3%)	7mo	$230,000	$125	54
87 Eiseman Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,012 (+13%)	5mo	$133,000	$66	53
175 W Girard Blvd	0.44mi	4/2.0	2,002 (+13%)	7mo	$265,000	$132	53
371 Hamilton Blvd	0.75mi	4/2.0	1,968 (+11%)	8mo	$300,000	$152	41
345 Westgate Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,538 (-13%)	9mo	$217,000	$141	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-39,135
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $18,693
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14217

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Rents YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 17.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,619 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$649 /mo · $7,785/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$550
• Net cashflow: $-136

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,791

Max offer price $250,889

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-58	+0% $-136	+5% $-214	+10% $-292
Rent	-10% $-343	-5% $-239	+0% $-136	+5% $-32	+10% $71
Rate	-1.0pp $3	-0.5pp $-66	base $-136	+0.5pp $-207	+1.0pp $-280

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 2× units	2	1	$2,620
Total (2 units)			$2,619

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
172 Tremont Ave Kenmore, NY	3.0	1.5	1569	$2,500	$1.59	11d	1	0.38mi
237 W Girard Blvd Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.5	1329	$4,000	$3.01	24d	1	0.54mi
351 Stillwell Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2586	$1,800	$0.70	24d	1	0.77mi
244 Hartwell Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	3d	1	1.03mi
2514 Delaware Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1620	$1,650	$1.02	2d	1	1.06mi
148 Colonial Ave Buffalo, NY	4.0	2.0	1240	$2,900	$2.34	24d	1	1.10mi
309 N Park Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2560	$1,750	$0.68	15d	1	1.26mi
77 Lovering Ave #2 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1450	$1,895	$1.31	44d	1	1.29mi
359 Colvin Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	2010	$2,100	$1.04	24d	1	1.32mi
307 Sterling Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1632	$1,800	$1.10	4d	1	1.34mi
140 Commonwealth Ave Unit 1 Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1250	$3,500	$2.80	44d	1	1.37mi
414 Taunton Pl Unit Lowet Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1232	$1,700	$1.38	15d	1	1.41mi
62 Seabrook St Buffalo, NY	4.0	1.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	2d	1	1.41mi
88 Commonwealth Ave Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1355	$1,695	$1.25	20d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-17
   listed $274,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,785 · $649/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,785 · $649/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$7,785
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,514
• − Management: −$2,514
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$6,156
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,477
• After-tax cash flow: $-154/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kenmore-Tonawanda Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3616230
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $51,433
• Composite: 39.18/100
• National rank: #4024
• State rank: #453 of 590 in NY

Livability — Kenmore

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #114
• US rank: #1843

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime D- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kenmore, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 22,566
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 22,471
• Household income: $73,800
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 727.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 13% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Arabic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.52%
• Current HPI: 330.7596
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.76%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-17 Listed $274,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,785 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.