Jasmine Plan · Billings, MT 59102

$188,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,217 sqft · Townhouse · 804 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• <den can be office>
• Parking
• Listed 804 days

Tags

• <DEN CAN BE OFFICE>
• <DEN CAN BE CRAFT ROOM>

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active
• Financial info: List price $188,000

Exterior

• Home design: Plan: Jasmine; New construction plan
• Construction: Living area approximately 1217; Address: 3412 Colton Blvd, Billings MT 59102

Interior

• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Virtual tour available

🏗️ New construction. The $188,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $222,711.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $188k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-219 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (11.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.0% in Billings — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#10 in MT, #1,830 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Billings H S (urban): math 29% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #69 of 116 in MT (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Boulder School (math 56% / reading 49%, grade C-, #68 of 293 statewide, top 23%, 507 students, 0% FRL); Will James Middle School (math 33% / reading 44%, grade F, #73 of 146 statewide, top 50%, 598 students, 0% FRL); Billings Sr High School (math 25% / reading 43%, grade F, #55 of 132 statewide, top 41%, 1,739 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 197 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,401 units permitted in Yellowstone County in 2024 (281 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yellowstone County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 804 days — a 12% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $165,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 804 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.21%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,711
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3405 Arlene Cir	0.50mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,256 (+3%)	4mo	$229,900	$183	61
3819 Avenue D	0.55mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,212 (-0%)	14mo	$299,000	$247	54
3116 Boulder Ave Ave #2	0.36mi	2/1.5 (+1)	1,392 (+14%)	20mo	$239,900	$172	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-46,528
• Equity at exit: $33,207

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-43,477
• Equity at exit: $19,256

Cash invested: $62,359 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59102

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 197
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,671 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,168
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$278 /mo · $3,341/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,948

Max offer price $191,025

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-142	+0% $-219	+5% $-296	+10% $-373
Rent	-10% $-351	-5% $-285	+0% $-219	+5% $-153	+10% $-87
Rate	-1.0pp $-107	-0.5pp $-162	base $-219	+0.5pp $-277	+1.0pp $-335

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,678
• Closing costs: $6,681
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1965 Home Valley Dr Billings, MT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$1,824	$1.67	15d	6	0.22mi
3635 Harvest Time Ln Billings, MT	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.0	1501	$2,799	$1.86	15d	10	0.29mi
2323 32nd St W Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	745	$1,314	$1.76	15d	4	0.31mi
1550 Country Manor Blvd Billings, MT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1086	$1,335	$1.23	15d	10	0.77mi
1141 28th St W Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	838	$1,045	$1.25	15d	1	0.96mi
2325 Avenue C Billings, MT	2.0	1.0	768	$1,655	$2.15	15d	2	1.33mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $188,000 Active 804 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $188,000 Active 802 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $188,000 Active 801 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $188,000 Active 800 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $188,000 Active 799 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,000 Active 798 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $188,000 Active 796 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,000 Active 795 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $188,000 Active 793 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $188,000 Active 792 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $188,000 Active 791 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $188,000 Active 790 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $188,000 Active 787 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,000 Active 785 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $188,000 Active 784 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,000 Active 783 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $188,000 Active 782 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,475
• − Property taxes: −$3,341
• − Insurance: −$1,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$6,479
• Taxable loss: −$6,564
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,575
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,052/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Billings H S
• NCES district ID: 3003900
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,863
• Composite: 31.93/100
• National rank: #5848
• State rank: #69 of 116 in MT

Livability — Billings

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1830

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Billings, MT
• County: Yellowstone County · 159,426 people
• City population: 147,124
• Metro: Billings, MT
• Population (ZIP): 47,977
• Household income: $76,141
• Rent vs Own: 31.5% rent · 68.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1584.0

Population outlook (Yellowstone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 176,227 people
• By 2030: 185,619 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 203,543 · +15.5%
• By 2050: 221,100 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 266,931 · +51.5%
• By 2100: 301,141 · +70.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yellowstone

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 34.9% · R 62.0% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.8pp toward R · 2008: -6.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+24.0 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -364.20%
• Current HPI: 205.0915
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.03%
• Metro: Billings, MT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B