200 W Burkholder Dr Lot 8 · Clay, PA 17543

$89,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 696 sqft · Manufactured public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2026 $129/sqft · 71% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

;; BRAND NEW SUPERIOR HOMES SPEC HOME – ORDER TODAY! ; ; Lititz PA Manufactured Home Community next to beautiful farm land and scenic views! Step inside to a bright and inviting living area that flows seamlessly into the spacious kitchen featuring brand-new appliances, ample cabinetry, and plenty of counter space. The well-designed floor plan offers comfortable bedrooms, a full bath, and energy-efficient construction for peace of mind and affordable living. Enjoy the benefits of brand-new construction along with manufacturer warranties. Monthly lot rent is $450 and includes water, sewer, trash, and snow removal. Drive by and check out this beautiful homesite to see if this could be the perfect place to call home! Then schedule a visit to Superior Homes where you can pick out your colors, options, and customize your brand-new home exactly the way you want it. ✨ Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, dining, and major routes. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautiful new home in a well-maintained community! Schedule your private showing today! ; ;

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 42 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 0.8% in Clay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,137 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Ephrata Area SD (suburban): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #173 of 539 in PA (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 214 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,093 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (201 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.45%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,241
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 72.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $30,150
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.33×
• Total profit: $83,906
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17543

• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $89,900 1092-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1092 chars)

    ;; BRAND NEW SUPERIOR HOMES SPEC HOME – ORDER TODAY! ; ; Lititz PA Manufactured Home Community next to beautiful farm land and scenic views! Step inside to a bright and inviting living area that flows seamlessly into the spacious kitchen featuring brand-new appliances, ample cabinetry, and plenty of counter space. The well-designed floor plan offers comfortable bedrooms, a full bath, and energy-efficient construction for peace of mind and affordable living. Enjoy the benefits of brand-new construction along with manufacturer warranties. Monthly lot rent is $450 and includes water, sewer, trash, and snow removal. Drive by and check out this beautiful homesite to see if this could be the perfect place to call home! Then schedule a visit to Superior Homes where you can pick out your colors, options, and customize your brand-new home exactly the way you want it. ✨ Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, dining, and major routes. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautiful new home in a well-maintained community! Schedule your private showing today! ; ;

16. 2026-05-08
    price $88,900 1092-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1092 chars)

    ;; BRAND NEW SUPERIOR HOMES SPEC HOME – ORDER TODAY! ; ; Lititz PA Manufactured Home Community next to beautiful farm land and scenic views! Step inside to a bright and inviting living area that flows seamlessly into the spacious kitchen featuring brand-new appliances, ample cabinetry, and plenty of counter space. The well-designed floor plan offers comfortable bedrooms, a full bath, and energy-efficient construction for peace of mind and affordable living. Enjoy the benefits of brand-new construction along with manufacturer warranties. Monthly lot rent is $450 and includes water, sewer, trash, and snow removal. Drive by and check out this beautiful homesite to see if this could be the perfect place to call home! Then schedule a visit to Superior Homes where you can pick out your colors, options, and customize your brand-new home exactly the way you want it. ✨ Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, dining, and major routes. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautiful new home in a well-maintained community! Schedule your private showing today! ; ;

17. 2026-05-07
    listed $84,900 Active 1092-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1092 chars)

    ;; BRAND NEW SUPERIOR HOMES SPEC HOME – ORDER TODAY! ; ; Lititz PA Manufactured Home Community next to beautiful farm land and scenic views! Step inside to a bright and inviting living area that flows seamlessly into the spacious kitchen featuring brand-new appliances, ample cabinetry, and plenty of counter space. The well-designed floor plan offers comfortable bedrooms, a full bath, and energy-efficient construction for peace of mind and affordable living. Enjoy the benefits of brand-new construction along with manufacturer warranties. Monthly lot rent is $450 and includes water, sewer, trash, and snow removal. Drive by and check out this beautiful homesite to see if this could be the perfect place to call home! Then schedule a visit to Superior Homes where you can pick out your colors, options, and customize your brand-new home exactly the way you want it. ✨ Conveniently located near local amenities, shopping, dining, and major routes. Don’t miss this opportunity to own a beautiful new home in a well-maintained community! Schedule your private showing today! ; ;

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $7,432
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,784
• After-tax cash flow: $6,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ephrata Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209270
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $54,320
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3078
• State rank: #173 of 539 in PA

Livability — Clay

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #1137
• US rank: #13048

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lancaster County · 390,309 people
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• Population (ZIP): 45,912
• Household income: $97,435
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1164.0

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 561,011 people
• By 2030: 570,969 · +1.8%
• By 2040: 585,929 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 591,056 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 594,747 · +6.0%
• By 2100: 558,850 · -0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, India, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: R (+15.9) · D 41.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.1pp toward R · 2008: -11.8pp · 2024: -15.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.9 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+19.7 2012: R+19.2 2008: R+11.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.22%
• Current HPI: 265.3653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lancaster, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+5.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $89,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $88,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $84,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $83 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.