15713 81st St E #135 · Alderton, WA 98372

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,299 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1973 $104/sqft · 14% above area Est $120k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.7/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great well taken care of home in ALL AGES Bowman Hilton Park! Surrounded by picturesque rural scene within the heart of beautiful Puyallup valley and close to edge of Puyallup River. Love the seamless open concept floor plan from living to dining room. French doors to covered outside patio for year-round enjoyment. Nicely upgraded kitchen and baths. Oversized primary bedroom with spacious bath & walk in closet in addition to two good sized bedrooms. Recent updates include durable Hardy-plank siding, roof and windows. Owner took care of it so you don’t have to! Cool off with A/C. Excellent location – close to everything. Welcome Home!

Key facts

• Hardy-plank siding
• A/c
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT FLOOR PLAN
• COVERED OUTSIDE PATIO
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• HARDY-PLANK SIDING
• A/C
• EXCELLENT LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 2.5% in Alderton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#269 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumner School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #18 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $135k implies a 559% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.85% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.86%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $119,519
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: 12.95%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.46% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.36×
• Total profit: $51,555
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.98×
• Total profit: $150,387
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98372

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,495 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$46 /mo · $552/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $1,094

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,110

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,171	-5% $1,133	+0% $1,094	+5% $1,056	+10% $1,018
Rent	-10% $897	-5% $996	+0% $1,094	+5% $1,193	+10% $1,292
Rate	-1.0pp $1,162	-0.5pp $1,129	base $1,094	+0.5pp $1,060	+1.0pp $1,024

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16120 64th St E Sumner, WA	2.0	2.5	1224	$2,774	$2.27	0d	5	1.04mi
15716 63rd Street Ct E Unit B Sumner, WA	2.0	1.5	896	$1,700	$1.90	25d	1	1.10mi
7105 142nd Ave E Unit A Sumner, WA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,925	$1.67	25d	1	1.11mi
15721 Main St E Sumner, WA	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,950	$1.90	44d	1	1.31mi
15367 Main St E Sumner, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$2,540	$2.98	0d	12	1.35mi
5816 162nd Ave E Sumner, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	766	$2,720	$3.55	0d	12	1.37mi
15318 Washington St Sumner, WA	3.0	2.0–2.5	1288	$3,193	$2.48	0d	4	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $135,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $135,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $135,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $135,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    listed $135,000 Active
15. 2001-09-26
    soldstatus $20,500
16. 2001-09-01
    historical
17. 2001-06-02
    listed $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $552 · $46/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: +$771/yr (+$64/mo · 139.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$552
• − Insurance: −$1,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,395
• − Management: −$2,395
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $11,637
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,793
• After-tax cash flow: $10,341/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumner School District
• NCES district ID: 5308610
• Math proficiency: 64% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $76,138
• Composite: 61.86/100
• National rank: #1497
• State rank: #18 of 291 in WA

Livability — Alderton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #9357

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alderton, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 26,012
• Household income: $98,152
• Rent vs Own: 47.5% rent · 52.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 871.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 6% Black 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.81%
• Current HPI: 309.7871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.46%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+487.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $135,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-26 Sold (MLS) $20,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-09-01 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-02 Listed $23,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $552 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.