🏷️ Likely Rental
3660 20th St · San Francisco, CA
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $659 – $1,223
Heat risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Hot days now (above 78°F)
- 8 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 19 days/yr
Wind risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- —
Air-quality risk 8/10 · Major
- Unhealthy air days now
- 15 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 15 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +30.0/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +10.0/10.0
- 1% rule +8.6/10.0
- Rent growth +5.0/5.0
- Schools +5.0/10.0
- Livability +3.8/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$1,350,000
🖨 Deal sheet 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Multi-family units
County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records
5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.
Listing remarks MLS
Exceptional value-add multifamily opportunity in the heart of San Francisco's Mission District. 3660 20th Street is a five-unit building offered at $1,350,000 ($270,000/unit, $350/SF), featuring a strong unit mix of (3) two-bedroom units, (2) one-bedroom units, and a non-tenant-occupied garage providing ancillary income free of tenant protections. The 3,862 SF building sits on a 2,866 SF lot and currently generates $7,113/month against estimated market rents of $19,000/month approximately 167% upside to gross scheduled income. Steps from Mission Dolores Park, the Valencia Corridor, Tartine, Bi-Rite, and Delfina, with walkable access to both 16th Street and 24th Street BART stations and U. S. 101. Originally acquired through a trust sale with historically below-market rents, the asset offers a clear path to stabilization through organic turnover and targeted renovations in one of San Francisco's most supply-constrained submarkets. Listed at a 3.40% cap rate and 15.82 GRM on in-place numbers.
Key facts
- Strong unit mix
- Targeted renovations
- Walkable access
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 8-bed/5.0-bath multifamily listed at $1.35M.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($66k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($18k rent vs $1.35M).
- Recommended offer: $1.31M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
- Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
- San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
- Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
- At $18,415/mo this rent would consume 140% of the median local household income ($158k/yr) (locally 2732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $40k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
- At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $378k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.31M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Questions for the listing agent
- It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.36% ✓
- Cap rate
- 11.15%
- Cash-on-cash
- 17.33%
- DSCR
- 1.77
- GRM
- 6.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $2,092,459
- List price
- $1,350,000
- Delta
- -35.48%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75-79 Brosnan St | 0.68mi | 8/4.0 | 3,656 (-5%) | 5mo | $1,385,000 | $379 | 51 |
| 3283 25th St | 0.66mi | 7/5.0 (-1) | 4,273 (+11%) | 0mo | $2,400,000 | $562 | 46 |
| 67-71 Sharon St | 0.58mi | 8/3.0 | 3,851 (-0%) | 22mo | $2,455,000 | $637 | 46 |
| 3017 20th St | 0.63mi | 9/— (+1) | 4,200 (+9%) | 8mo | $900,000 | $214 | 44 |
| 759 Capp St | 0.43mi | 7/6.0 (-1) | 3,500 (-9%) | 15mo | $905,000 | $259 | 43 |
| 2760-2762 Folsom St | 0.59mi | 7/3.0 (-1) | 3,750 (-3%) | 19mo | $1,932,125 | $515 | 39 |
| 685 Noe St | 0.52mi | 8/5.0 | 4,385 (+14%) | 18mo | $3,880,000 | $885 | 38 |
| 3932-3934 26th St | 0.74mi | 7/— (-1) | 4,155 (+8%) | 20mo | $4,999,000 | $1,203 | 31 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- 14.1%
- Equity multiple
- 1.60×
- Total profit
- $226,424
- Equity at exit
- $201,289
- IRR
- 26.4%
- Equity multiple
- 3.88×
- Total profit
- $1,088,393
- Equity at exit
- $116,723
Cash invested: $378,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (CITY)
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
- State California
- 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City San Francisco
- 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57
ZIP-level market 94110
- Rents YoY
- 14.5%
- Active inventory
- 161
- Price-to-rent
- 17.2×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $18,415 high interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$7,080
- Tax from tax record
- −$1,446 /mo · $17,353/yr
- Insurance
- −$562
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$3,867
- Net cashflow
- $5,460
Break-even live
3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)
| Units | Beds | Baths | Est. rent |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2× units | 2 | 1 | $13,106 |
| #1 | 2 | 1 | $6,553 |
| #2 | 2 | 1 | $6,553 |
| 1× unit | 1 | 1 | $5,309 |
| Total (3 units) | $18,415 | ||
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $337,500
- Closing costs
- $40,500
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 20 events
-
2026-06-18days on market $1,350,000 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $1,350,000 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $1,350,000 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $1,350,000 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $1,350,000 Active 46 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $1,350,000 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $1,350,000 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $1,350,000 Active 41 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $1,350,000 Active 40 DOM
-
2026-06-04days on market $1,350,000 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $1,350,000 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $1,350,000 Active 35 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $1,350,000 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $1,350,000 Active 33 DOM
-
2026-04-28$1,350,000 Active 1006-char remark
Show marketing remark (1006 chars)
Exceptional value-add multifamily opportunity in the heart of San Francisco's Mission District. 3660 20th Street is a five-unit building offered at $1,350,000 ($270,000/unit, $350/SF), featuring a strong unit mix of (3) two-bedroom units, (2) one-bedroom units, and a non-tenant-occupied garage providing ancillary income free of tenant protections. The 3,862 SF building sits on a 2,866 SF lot and currently generates $7,113/month against estimated market rents of $19,000/month approximately 167% upside to gross scheduled income. Steps from Mission Dolores Park, the Valencia Corridor, Tartine, Bi-Rite, and Delfina, with walkable access to both 16th Street and 24th Street BART stations and U. S. 101. Originally acquired through a trust sale with historically below-market rents, the asset offers a clear path to stabilization through organic turnover and targeted renovations in one of San Francisco's most supply-constrained submarkets. Listed at a 3.40% cap rate and 15.82 GRM on in-place numbers.
-
2021-12-03soldstatus $1,275,000 Closed 77-char remark
Show marketing remark (77 chars)
* * * Court Confirmation and Overbid Date is Set * * * November 8, 2021.
-
2021-12-03soldstatus $1,275,000
Show marketing remark (77 chars)
* * * Court Confirmation and Overbid Date is Set * * * November 8, 2021.
-
2021-11-08status Pending 77-char remark
Show marketing remark (77 chars)
* * * Court Confirmation and Overbid Date is Set * * * November 8, 2021.
-
2021-07-30$1,100,000 Active 77-char remark
Show marketing remark (77 chars)
* * * Court Confirmation and Overbid Date is Set * * * November 8, 2021.
-
2005-07-29$935,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price
- Current annual tax
- $17,353 · $1,446/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $17,353 · $1,446/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 1/10 Low
- Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥78°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 1/10 Low
- Air quality 8/10 Severe 15 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $220,980
- − Mortgage interest
- −$75,621
- − Property taxes
- −$17,353
- − Insurance
- −$6,750
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$17,678
- − Management
- −$17,678
- − Depreciation
- −$39,273
- Taxable income
- $46,627
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$11,190
- After-tax cash flow
- $54,326/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- San Francisco Unified
- NCES district ID
- 0634410
- Math proficiency
- 50% ▬ 0.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 56% ▲ 1.00%
- Median HH income
- $81,249
- Composite
- 50.14/100
- National rank
- #4088
- State rank
- #322 of 1400 in CA
Livability — San Francisco
- Score
- 76/100
- State rank
- #90
- US rank
- #3143
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- San Francisco, CA
- County
- San Francisco County · 827,552 people
- City population
- 827,552
- Metro
- San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
- Population (ZIP)
- 66,865
- Household income
- $158,351
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 2732.0
Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 1,030,936 people
- By 2030
- 1,110,409 · +7.7%
- By 2040
- 1,270,010 · +23.2%
- By 2050
- 1,435,001 · +39.2%
- By 2075
- 1,779,074 · +72.6%
- By 2100
- 1,966,767 · +90.8%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 41% Hispanic / Latino 32% Asian 16% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Native American 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
- Foreign-born
- 28% · Canada, China, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 58% English-only · Spanish 27% Chinese 5% Other Indo-European 2%
Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco
- 2024 margin
- Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -1385.62%
- Current HPI
- 267.2424
- Rent YoY
- ▲ 14.54%
- Metro
- San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.21%
- F500 in state
- 116
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | 27 | $1,492B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 3 | $174B |
|
||
| Retail | 3 | $44B |
|
||
| Insurance | 3 | $26B |
|
||
| Media / Entertainment | 2 | $115B |
|
||
| Pharmaceuticals / Biotech | 2 | $62B |
|
||
Price history
+44.4% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-04-28 Listed $1,350,000 San Francisco MLS
- 2021-12-03 Sold (Public Records) $1,275,000 Public Records
- 2021-12-03 Sold (MLS) $1,275,000 San Francisco MLS
- 2021-11-08 Pending — San Francisco MLS
- 2021-07-30 Listed $1,100,000 San Francisco MLS
- 2005-07-29 Listed $935,000 San Francisco MLS
Property tax history
+10.0%/yrLatest (2025): $17,353 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…