Bergen Plan · Houston, TX 77493

$308,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,875 sqft · SingleFamily · 127 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Lakes for kayaking
• Swimming pool
• Lakes for fishing

Tags

• SWIMMING POOL
• LAKES FOR FISHING
• LAKES FOR KAYAKING
• LOCAL SHOPPING
• LOCAL DINING
• MAJOR HIGHWAYS

🏗️ New construction. The $308,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $301,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $309k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($237/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $305k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $267k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $267k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Katy ISD (suburban): math 61% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #29 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Robert King El (math 41% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 981 students, 68% FRL); Katy J H (math 52% / reading 51%, grade C, #318 of 1,662 statewide, top 20%, 1,094 students, 53% FRL); Katy H S (math 62% / reading 74%, grade B, #150 of 1,632 statewide, top 10%, 3,330 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 27% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 2729 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 127 days — a 12% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $266,671 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 127 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,990
• List price: $308,990
• Delta: 2.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6427 Green Pedal Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,880 (+0%)	1mo	$308,990	$164	67
6634 Sienna Sunrise Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0	2,013 (+7%)	0mo	$305,990	$152	66
26803 Scarlet Willow Dr	0.52mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+5%)	0mo	$275,240	$140	65
6426 Green Pedal Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (+2%)	1mo	$294,440	$154	65
26707 Scarlet Willow Dr	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-8%)	1mo	$322,990	$188	61
7310 Dover View Ln	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,916 (+2%)	1mo	$296,000	$154	60
26527 Ivory Petal Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	2,083 (+11%)	1mo	$309,140	$148	60
26811 Scarlet Willow Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-8%)	1mo	$270,590	$157	57
6666 Iron Clover Dr	0.44mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-12%)	1mo	$283,590	$171	56
6671 Iron Clover Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,635 (-13%)	0mo	$265,000	$162	53
26843 Vanilla Pearls Ln	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,656 (-12%)	0mo	$254,240	$154	46
6431 Green Pedal Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (-15%)	1mo	$271,090	$169	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-55,454
• Equity at exit: $45,028

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-76,711
• Equity at exit: $26,111

Cash invested: $84,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77493

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 2729
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,667 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,584
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$377 /mo · $4,530/yr
• Insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,642

Max offer price $301,990

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $124	+0% $20	+5% $-85	+10% $-189
Rent	-10% $-191	-5% $-86	+0% $20	+5% $125	+10% $230
Rate	-1.0pp $172	-0.5pp $97	base $20	+0.5pp $-59	+1.0pp $-138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,498
• Closing costs: $9,060
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26642 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,300	$1.18	45d	1	0.20mi
26811 Prairie Smoke Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1656	$2,250	$1.36	45d	1	0.28mi
6758 Sunset Velvet Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,350	$1.49	45d	1	0.42mi
26802 Cenzontle Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1470	$1,850	$1.26	45d	1	0.64mi
6414 Orchid Beach Dr Katy, TX	5.0	4.0	2490	$3,000	$1.20	14d	1	0.67mi
7402 Clover Chase Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	1840	$2,400	$1.30	45d	1	0.75mi
7410 Hillside Arbor Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2289	$2,400	$1.05	45d	1	0.81mi
6303 Marigold Blaze Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$2,250	$1.53	45d	1	0.88mi
6427 Seafoam Lake Dr Katy, TX	4.0	4.0	2479	$3,000	$1.21	0d	1	0.95mi
27507 Hudson Sands Ln Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2294	$3,000	$1.31	18d	1	1.07mi
5819 Bright Keel Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2598	$2,400	$0.92	45d	1	1.22mi
27327 Blue Pool Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2100	$2,600	$1.24	45d	1	1.24mi
3084 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,325	$1.12	14d	1	1.29mi
3081 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,275	$1.36	26d	1	1.30mi
3072 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2279	$2,550	$1.12	24d	1	1.31mi
5631 Pearl Vista Dr Katy, TX	4.0	3.0	2039	$3,000	$1.47	22d	1	1.32mi
3020 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	2408	$3,995	$1.66	26d	1	1.34mi
3053 Fantasy Terrace Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	2085	$2,440	$1.17	17d	1	1.35mi
3064 Dawn Sound Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1464	$1,950	$1.33	45d	1	1.38mi
3076 Dylan Skyland Dr Katy, TX	4.0	2.5	2240	$3,395	$1.52	26d	1	1.41mi
3104 Nori Shores Dr Katy, TX	5.0	2.5	1947	$3,695	$1.90	5d	1	1.45mi
27064 Beach Ball Dr Katy, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1705	$2,957	$1.73	0d	25	1.47mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $308,990 Active 127 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,990 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $294,990 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $320,990 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $320,990 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $320,990 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $320,990 Active 114 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $320,990 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $320,990 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $320,990 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $320,990 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $320,990 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $320,990 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-02-14
    listed $320,990 Active 374-char remark

    Show marketing remark (374 chars)

    This new single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. An open-concept floorplan blends the kitchen, living and dining areas to maximize interior space, with access to a covered patio for simple entertaining and multitasking. All four bedrooms are tucked away to the side of the home, including the luxe owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,916
• − Property taxes: −$4,530
• − Insurance: −$1,510
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,560
• − Management: −$2,560
• − Depreciation: −$8,785
• Taxable loss: −$4,861
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,167
• After-tax cash flow: $1,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-level home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout with a good condition score. It is move-in ready with minor updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Kitchen and bathroom updates — Modernizing these spaces can attract more buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Katy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825170
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $90,312
• Composite: 56.59/100
• National rank: #1146
• State rank: #29 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 71,484
• Household income: $118,464
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 913.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 36% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.65%
• Current HPI: 233.1683
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.80%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $320,990 Zillow