2984 VT Route 153 · Rupert, VT 05761

$69,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 491 Days on market

Built 1890 Poor condition 6,969 sqft lot $47/sqft · 69% below area ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Classic late 1800's Colonial home located in the center of the Village of Pawlet. This home offers four bedrooms, one bath in 1500 square feet. All on a 0.16 lot with a detached one car garage. Lot is level and open. Although she'll need some love -- she'll shine again!!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1890

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $878 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Bennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($483 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Bennington County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 491 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $61,512 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 491 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 53.80%
• DSCR: 3.39
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,787
• List price: $69,900
• Delta: -69.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 60.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $70,518
• Equity at exit: $38,004

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.8%
• Equity multiple: 9.46×
• Total profit: $165,663
• Equity at exit: $64,297

Cash invested: $19,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05761

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,722 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $878

Break-even live

Break-even rent $611

Max offer price $69,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,475
• Closing costs: $2,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $69,900 Active 491 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $69,900 Active 490 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $69,900 Active 489 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $69,900 Active 488 DOM
5. 2026-03-08
   status Active 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Classic late 1800's Colonial home located in the center of the Village of Pawlet. This home offers four bedrooms, one bath in 1500 square feet. All on a 0.16 lot with a detached one car garage. Lot is level and open. Although she'll need some love -- she'll shine again!!

6. 2026-02-20
   status Pending 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Classic late 1800's Colonial home located in the center of the Village of Pawlet. This home offers four bedrooms, one bath in 1500 square feet. All on a 0.16 lot with a detached one car garage. Lot is level and open. Although she'll need some love -- she'll shine again!!

7. 2025-11-25
   price $69,900 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Classic late 1800's Colonial home located in the center of the Village of Pawlet. This home offers four bedrooms, one bath in 1500 square feet. All on a 0.16 lot with a detached one car garage. Lot is level and open. Although she'll need some love -- she'll shine again!!

8. 2025-09-12
   price $79,900 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Classic late 1800's Colonial home located in the center of the Village of Pawlet. This home offers four bedrooms, one bath in 1500 square feet. All on a 0.16 lot with a detached one car garage. Lot is level and open. Although she'll need some love -- she'll shine again!!

9. 2025-05-06
   price $89,900 271-char remark

   Show marketing remark (271 chars)

   Classic late 1800's Colonial home located in the center of the Village of Pawlet. This home offers four bedrooms, one bath in 1500 square feet. All on a 0.16 lot with a detached one car garage. Lot is level and open. Although she'll need some love -- she'll shine again!!

10. 2024-12-30
    listed $99,900 Active 271-char remark

    Show marketing remark (271 chars)

    Classic late 1800's Colonial home located in the center of the Village of Pawlet. This home offers four bedrooms, one bath in 1500 square feet. All on a 0.16 lot with a detached one car garage. Lot is level and open. Although she'll need some love -- she'll shine again!!

11. 2006-10-16
    soldstatus $92,000 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    This late 19th century village home offers plenty of space for a growing family and a growing business. Located in the heart of West Pawlet, this 3 bedroom and 1 bath home has plenty of privacy with an enclosed front porch and fenced backyard. The detached oversized garage is zoned for commercial space and would fit the needs of many businesses.

12. 2005-08-17
    listed $99,000 347-char remark

    Show marketing remark (347 chars)

    This late 19th century village home offers plenty of space for a growing family and a growing business. Located in the heart of West Pawlet, this 3 bedroom and 1 bath home has plenty of privacy with an enclosed front porch and fenced backyard. The detached oversized garage is zoned for commercial space and would fit the needs of many businesses.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,915
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,653
• − Management: −$1,653
• − Depreciation: −$2,033
• Taxable income: $10,014
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,403
• After-tax cash flow: $8,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This 1800s Colonial home requires extensive renovations to bring it up to modern standards. Immediate repairs are needed in the kitchen and bathroom, while the exterior and interior walls also require significant work.

Repairs flagged

• Major ceiling in kitchen — Exposed and damaged
• Major cabinets in kitchen — Worn and outdated
• Major plumbing in bathroom — Exposed and missing fixtures
• Major windows — Missing

Value-add opportunities

• Both Kitchen renovation — Modernizing the kitchen will increase both resale and rental value
• Both Bathroom renovation — Updating the bathroom will improve both resale and rental value
• Both Exterior siding and windows — Updating the exterior will improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
ceiling in kitchen · Exposed and damaged	Major	$15,000–50,000
cabinets in kitchen · Worn and outdated	Major	$15,000–50,000
plumbing in bathroom · Exposed and missing fixtures	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Missing	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Kitchen renovation — Modernizing the kitchen will increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — Updating the bathroom will improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Exterior siding and windows — Updating the exterior will improve curb appeal and increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Rupert

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,019

Population outlook (Bennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,407 people
• By 2030: 32,975 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 29,711 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 26,638 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 21,318 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 16,086 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Native American 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bennington

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.5) · D 60.0% · R 37.5% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 33.4pp · 2024: 22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.5 2020: D+27.3 2016: D+22.1 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+33.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.62%
• Current HPI: 144.5269
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-29.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-08 Relisted — PrimeMLS
• 2026-02-20 Pending — PrimeMLS
• 2025-11-25 Price Changed $69,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $79,900 PrimeMLS
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $89,900 PrimeMLS
• 2024-12-30 Listed $99,900 PrimeMLS
• 2006-10-16 Sold (MLS) $92,000 PrimeMLS
• 2005-08-17 Listed $99,000 PrimeMLS