1407 Rising Springs Ln · Houston, TX 77073

$199,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,798 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2006 4,399 sqft lot $111/sqft · 14% below area Est $233k · 14% under $47/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 1407 Rising Springs Ln, a two-story home offering 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and 1,798 sqft with a functional layout. The primary bedroom is located on the first floor, along with a full bathroom and a half bath for guests. Major updates include an HVAC system installed in 2025 and a roof that’s approximately 5 years old. The home also features a new gas stove and new microwave, with a layout that offers both space and flexibility. Upstairs includes the remaining bedrooms, a full bathroom, and a game room perfect for extra living space, a home office, or entertainment. Located just 15 minutes from the airport with easy access to major highways, shopping, and dining. Schedule yo

Key facts

• 4,399 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Meadow View Farms HOA; Annual association fee of $562

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2006; Single-family design (2-story with entry on first floor)
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Private yard; Lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the second floor (three bedrooms); Total of 6 rooms
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Primary bedroom with private bath; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-31 ($-376/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $194k (2.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (2.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Aldine ISD (suburban): math 16% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #790 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Teague Middle (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,491 of 1,662 statewide, top 91%, 1,180 students, 87% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 159 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $194,455 (2.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $233,249
• List price: $199,990
• Delta: -14.26%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1407 Rising Springs Ln	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,798 (0%)	1mo	$199,990	$111	99
1431 Joy Oaks Ln	0.14mi	4/2.5	1,838 (+2%)	0mo	$240,000	$131	89
19211 Archer Glen Dr	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,673 (-7%)	2mo	$216,888	$130	79
1619 Evermore Manor Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,867 (+4%)	1mo	$239,000	$128	78
19410 Green Chase Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5	1,772 (-1%)	1mo	$222,899	$126	75
1071 Verde Trails Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5	1,630 (-9%)	1mo	$190,000	$117	65
611 Remwick Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,832 (+2%)	1mo	$249,900	$136	65
802 NW Bandon Ln	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,915 (+6%)	2mo	$229,900	$120	63
930 Belshear Ct	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,980 (+10%)	2mo	$229,999	$116	61
19515 Fletcher Way Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,716 (-5%)	2mo	$229,000	$133	58
19822 Bettencourt Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,554 (-14%)	3mo	$206,500	$133	57
711 Ashlen Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,540 (-14%)	0mo	$225,000	$146	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.68% appreciation · 0.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-18,617
• Equity at exit: $51,384

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-16,975
• Equity at exit: $56,653

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77073

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,063 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$482 /mo · $5,788/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$47
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$433
• Net cashflow: $-31

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,103

Max offer price $194,455

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1418 Spencer Glen Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,900	$1.23	16d	1	0.18mi
19959 Oland Way Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2005	$1,800	$0.90	24d	1	0.42mi
1514 Glasholm Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,300	$0.93	22d	1	0.46mi
920 Century Plaza Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1298	$1,799	$1.39	1d	1	0.92mi
815 Richcrest Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1766	$1,921	$1.09	24d	1	1.24mi
18011 Kinsale Valley Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1826	$1,750	$0.96	7d	1	1.26mi
17715 Wayforest Dr Apt 113 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1356	$1,340	$0.99	2d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $47 · $564/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 766-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   status Pending 766-char remark
3. 2026-04-27
   listed $199,990 Active 766-char remark
4. 2026-04-26
   historical $199,990 766-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,788 · $482/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,788 · $482/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$5,788
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,981
• − Management: −$1,981
• − HOA: −$564
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$3,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$858
• After-tax cash flow: $482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aldine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807710
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $37,081
• Composite: 15.42/100
• National rank: #9317
• State rank: #790 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,084
• Household income: $78,592
• Rent vs Own: 35.1% rent · 64.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 59% Black 27% Two or more races 24% White 9% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Current HPI: 215.8688
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-29 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-26 Coming Soon $199,990 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,788 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.