1567 Rustling Creek Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,941 sqft · Townhouse public records · 179 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 4,482 sqft lot $126/sqft · 24% below area Est $321k · 24% under $133/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Key facts

• $133 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-304 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (21.9% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $245k).
• Recommended offer: $191k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.8% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1941 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 117d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,290 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.32%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $320,912
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -23.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1571 Rustling Creek Dr	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,941 (0%)	7mo	$299,500	$154	92
1554 Rustling Creek Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5	1,858 (-4%)	18mo	$309,000	$166	74
1519 Cathedral Bend Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,908 (-2%)	22mo	$299,999	$157	71
1703 Anchor Breeze Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-9%)	1mo	$299,477	$169	58
10306 Water Harbor Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-9%)	16mo	$403,546	$228	47
1623 Anchor Breeze Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-9%)	16mo	$339,814	$192	45
10319 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,770 (-9%)	17mo	$398,068	$225	45
10302 Water Harbor Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-11%)	19mo	$358,475	$207	42
10318 Water Harbor Dr	0.55mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (-11%)	14mo	$359,231	$208	40
1622 Anchor Breeze Dr	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,098 (+8%)	21mo	$488,578	$233	40
1610 Sterling Water Dr	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,730 (-11%)	17mo	$328,240	$190	38
1610 Anchor Breeze Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-11%)	22mo	$376,960	$218	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-52,031
• Equity at exit: $51,384

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.23×
• Total profit: $-84,269
• Equity at exit: $47,594

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 60.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $341,500 ($183/sqft)
• Median days on market: 56 d
• This list price: 10% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -9.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1941
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$759 /mo · $9,106/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,884

Max offer price $191,290

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-165	-5% $-235	+0% $-304	+5% $-373	+10% $-443
Rent	-10% $-502	-5% $-403	+0% $-304	+5% $-205	+10% $-107
Rate	-1.0pp $-181	-0.5pp $-242	base $-304	+0.5pp $-368	+1.0pp $-432

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1523 Rustling Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1858	$2,500	$1.35	69d	1	0.06mi
1914 Misty Field Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	2051	$2,200	$1.07	10d	1	0.41mi
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	163d	1	0.47mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	184d	1	0.52mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	116d	1	0.67mi
10602 William Park Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1524	$2,500	$1.64	130d	1	0.91mi
1414 Emma Lake Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2337	$2,750	$1.18	119d	1	0.98mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	90d	1	1.03mi
8735 Morris Woods Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1780	$2,000	$1.12	10d	1	1.03mi
2507 Manor Valley Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1870	$1,900	$1.02	10d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-10-06
   days on market $245,000 Active 179 DOM
2. 2026-10-05
   days on market $245,000 Active 178 DOM
3. 2026-10-04
   days on market $245,000 Active 177 DOM
4. 2026-10-04
   days on market $245,000 Active 176 DOM
5. 2026-10-02
   days on market $245,000 Active 175 DOM
6. 2026-10-01
   days on market $245,000 Active 174 DOM
7. 2026-09-30
   days on market $245,000 Active 173 DOM
8. 2026-09-29
   days on market $245,000 Active 172 DOM
9. 2026-09-28
   days on market $245,000 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-09-27
    days on market $245,000 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-09-26
    days on market $245,000 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-09-25
    days on market $245,000 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-09-24
    days on market $245,000 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-09-23
    days on market $245,000 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-09-22
    days on market $245,000 Active 165 DOM
16. 2026-09-21
    days on market $245,000 Active 164 DOM
17. 2026-09-20
    days on market $245,000 Active 163 DOM
18. 2026-09-19
    days on market $245,000 Active 162 DOM
19. 2026-09-18
    days on market $245,000 Active 161 DOM
20. 2026-09-17
    days on market $245,000 Active 160 DOM
21. 2026-09-16
    days on market $245,000 Active 159 DOM
22. 2026-09-15
    days on market $245,000 Active 158 DOM
23. 2026-09-14
    days on market $245,000 Active 157 DOM
24. 2026-09-13
    days on market $245,000 Active 156 DOM
25. 2026-09-12
    days on market $245,000 Active 155 DOM
26. 2026-09-11
    days on market $245,000 Active 154 DOM
27. 2026-09-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 148 DOM
28. 2026-09-04
    days on market $245,000 Active 147 DOM
29. 2026-08-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 143 DOM
30. 2026-08-30
    days on market $245,000 Active 142 DOM
31. 2026-08-29
    days on market $245,000 Active 141 DOM
32. 2026-08-28
    days on market $245,000 Active 140 DOM
33. 2026-08-27
    days on market $245,000 Active 139 DOM
34. 2026-08-25
    days on market $245,000 Active 137 DOM
35. 2026-08-24
    days on market $245,000 Active 136 DOM
36. 2026-08-23
    days on market $245,000 Active 135 DOM
37. 2026-08-22
    days on market $245,000 Active 134 DOM
38. 2026-08-21
    days on market $245,000 Active 133 DOM
39. 2026-08-20
    days on market $245,000 Active 132 DOM
40. 2026-08-19
    days on market $245,000 Active 131 DOM
41. 2026-08-18
    days on market $245,000 Active 130 DOM
42. 2026-08-17
    days on market $245,000 Active 129 DOM
43. 2026-08-16
    days on market $245,000 Active 128 DOM
44. 2026-08-15
    days on market $245,000 Active 127 DOM
45. 2026-08-15
    price $245,000 Active 126 DOM
46. 2026-08-14
    days on market $259,000 Active 126 DOM
47. 2026-08-13
    days on market $259,000 Active 125 DOM
48. 2026-08-12
    days on market $259,000 Active 124 DOM
49. 2026-08-11
    days on market $259,000 Active 123 DOM
50. 2026-08-10
    days on market $259,000 Active 122 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,106 · $759/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,106 · $759/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,995
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$9,106
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$7,582
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,820
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,829/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,705–$29,115 screening

This townhouse is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good layout and modern finishes, making it a good candidate for a cosmetic renovation to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Components & finishes AI

Flooring laminate Counters granite Appliances stainless steel

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood in the staircase — Improves aesthetics and is easier to maintain ↑
• Both Install modern light fixtures in the kitchen and bathrooms — Modernizes the space and improves curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Alyssa Ferguson El Middle Ronald Thornton Middle D+ TX #462/1,662 Nat'l #4,433/14,009 High Almeta Crawford H S

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10669.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $262,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-26 Rental Removed $2,600 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed for Rent $2,600 HARMLS

Property tax history

+29.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,106 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.