1567 Rustling Creek Dr · Sienna, TX 77459

$278,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,941 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2021 4,482 sqft lot Est $367k · 24% under $133/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• $133 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $278k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $870 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $278k).
• Recommended offer: $261k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 3.3% in Sienna — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ronald Thornton Middle (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D+, #462 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 1,529 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($129k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($261k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,319 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.41%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $366,849
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9451 Garden Gate Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,901 (-2%)	1mo	$352,990	$186	86
9447 Garden Gate Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,866 (-4%)	1mo	$354,990	$190	83
9431 Garden Gate Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,835 (-6%)	1mo	$350,000	$191	81
1456 Shaded Rock Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,838 (-5%)	3mo	$330,000	$180	79
1334 Shaded Rock Dr	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,910 (-2%)	0mo	$349,990	$183	75
1212 Shaded Rock Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,977 (+2%)	3mo	$365,115	$185	71
9442 Spring Rain Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-12%)	3mo	$337,990	$198	69
9443 Garden Gate Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,710 (-12%)	3mo	$337,990	$198	68
1310 Shaded Rock Dr	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,838 (-5%)	3mo	$347,740	$189	68
10210 Water Harbor Dr	0.47mi	3/3.0	2,033 (+5%)	2mo	$344,900	$170	64
1306 Shaded Rock Dr	0.41mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+5%)	2mo	$365,915	$179	64
10311 Tranquil Lake Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,973 (+2%)	3mo	$392,844	$199	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $14,231
• Equity at exit: $58,305

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $51,917
• Equity at exit: $54,004

Cash invested: $77,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,222 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax from tax record: −$759 /mo · $9,106/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$887
• Net cashflow: $870

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,121

Max offer price $278,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,027	-5% $949	+0% $870	+5% $791	+10% $713
Rent	-10% $536	-5% $703	+0% $870	+5% $1,037	+10% $1,204
Rate	-1.0pp $1,010	-0.5pp $941	base $870	+0.5pp $798	+1.0pp $725

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,500
• Closing costs: $8,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8719 Fox Trail Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2143	$6,000	$2.80	22d	1	0.47mi
1714 Forest Mist Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	3.0	1979	$3,000	$1.52	44d	1	0.52mi
2142 Ironwood Pass Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2140	$6,000	$2.80	1d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $133 · $1,596/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   pricestatus $278,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-27
   status Active
4. 2026-04-27
   price $280,000
5. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
6. 2026-03-23
   status Active
7. 2026-03-16
   status Pending
8. 2026-02-24
   price $269,000
9. 2026-02-07
   price $290,000
10. 2026-01-30
    price $262,000
11. 2026-01-14
    price $269,000
12. 2026-01-06
    listed $275,000 Active
13. 2025-12-26
    historical $2,600
14. 2025-09-26
    listed $2,600

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,106 · $759/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,106 · $759/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,667
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,572
• − Property taxes: −$9,106
• − Insurance: −$1,390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,053
• − Management: −$4,053
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$8,087
• Taxable income: $6,808
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,634
• After-tax cash flow: $8,806/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sienna

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sienna, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10669.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $262,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $269,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-26 Rental Removed $2,600 HARMLS
• 2025-09-26 Listed for Rent $2,600 HARMLS

Property tax history

+29.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,106 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.