3017 Lyons Rd · Austin, TX 78702

$450,000

6 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 1942 6,642 sqft lot $269/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.2/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated at 3017 Lyons RD, Austin, TX, USA, this single-family residence presents a unique opportunity for discerning individuals seeking a home with a storied past, originally established in the year 1942. The essence of a single-family residence, as presented here, offers the distinct advantage of a private domain, providing the foundational elements for crafting a highly individualized living environment. This property, established in 1942, embodies a particular architectural period, providing a canvas for contemporary design aspirations within a structure that has witnessed decades of history. This single-family residence in Austin, established in 1942, represents a compelling opportunity to create a bespoke living experience within a city renowned for its dynamic appeal.

Key facts

• 6,642 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1942

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $450k).
• Recommended offer: $423k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Austin ISD (urban): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #431 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 312 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,575/mo this rent would consume 65% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) (locally 1750% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($423k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1942 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $423,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1942 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.95%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,026,838
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -56.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-15,856
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $18,051
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78702

• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 312
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,575 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$707 /mo · $8,484/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,171
• Net cashflow: $1,150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,119

Max offer price $450,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,404	-5% $1,277	+0% $1,150	+5% $1,022	+10% $895
Rent	-10% $709	-5% $930	+0% $1,150	+5% $1,370	+10% $1,590
Rate	-1.0pp $1,376	-0.5pp $1,264	base $1,150	+0.5pp $1,033	+1.0pp $915

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3116 Prado St Unit 1 Austin, TX	5.0	4.0	1833	$7,500	$4.09	13d	1	0.15mi
1702 Singleton Ave Unit A Austin, TX	5.0	2.5	1640	$2,595	$1.58	24d	1	1.25mi
1702 Singleton Ave Unit A Austin, TX	5.0	2.5	1500	$2,495	$1.66	2d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $450,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $450,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $450,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $450,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $450,000 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $450,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $450,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $450,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $450,000 Active 50 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $450,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $450,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $450,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $450,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-04-15
    listed $450,000 Active 786-char remark

    Show marketing remark (786 chars)

    Situated at 3017 Lyons RD, Austin, TX, USA, this single-family residence presents a unique opportunity for discerning individuals seeking a home with a storied past, originally established in the year 1942. The essence of a single-family residence, as presented here, offers the distinct advantage of a private domain, providing the foundational elements for crafting a highly individualized living environment. This property, established in 1942, embodies a particular architectural period, providing a canvas for contemporary design aspirations within a structure that has witnessed decades of history. This single-family residence in Austin, established in 1942, represents a compelling opportunity to create a bespoke living experience within a city renowned for its dynamic appeal.

15. 1999-02-08
    soldstatus
16. 1960-08-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,484 · $707/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,484 · $707/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $66,897
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$8,484
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,352
• − Management: −$5,352
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable income: $7,162
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,719
• After-tax cash flow: $12,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Austin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,627
• Composite: 33.65/100
• National rank: #5397
• State rank: #431 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Austin, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,985
• Household income: $102,171
• Rent vs Own: 59.1% rent · 40.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1750.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 14% Black 12% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -394.53%
• Current HPI: 295.5178
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.06%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $450,000 Unlock MLS
• 1999-02-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1960-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.6%/yr

Latest (2026): $8,484 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.