15-2702 Maikoiko St · Hawaiian Beaches, HI 96778

$249,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1972 0.28 ac lot Est $206k · 21% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity to build your own home in the Hawaiian Shores Recreational Estates Subdivision. Located where many say is the heart of Puna, this vacant lot sits on a paved street surrounded by newer homes, giving a growing neighborhood feel, with the privacy of being at the less-trafficked end of the road. The property features beautiful ʻōhiʻa trees and active bird life. Subdivision benefits include a Recreational Center and Pool for residents. Enjoy access to private water, direct mail services, and a rural island lifestyle. Conveniently located near local bake stands, farmers' markets, and easy access to stunning coastal views and black sand beaches. Close to shopping, grocery stores, and medical offices. This is an excellent opportunity to build in an established community and enjoy Puna life.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 34 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; Private water source; Cesspool sewer; Solid waste handled by private contractor
• Home design: Full ownership
• Exterior features: Fairly level topography; Fee simple land tenure; Located in Lava Zone 2; Zoned A-1A

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (total 1 full and 1 half)
• Interior features: Laminate and vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (12.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.8% in Hawaiian Beaches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#128 in HI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hawaii Department Of Education (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #1 of 1 in HI (top 100%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keonepoko Elementary School (math 8% / reading 24%, grade F, #169 of 183 statewide, top 93%, 562 students, 75% FRL); Pahoa High & Intermediate School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #35 of 43 statewide, top 86%, 723 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 39% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Hawaii Department Of Education average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 388 active listings in the ZIP; 982 units permitted in Hawaii County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hawaii County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $249k implies a 1058% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $217,631 (12.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.73%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $205,632
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15-2687 Kawakawa St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,008 (0%)	17mo	$116,500	$116	66
15-457 Anae St	0.45mi	2/2.0 (-1)	925 (-8%)	1mo	$295,000	$319	58
15-2785 Manini St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,056 (+5%)	15mo	$215,000	$204	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-30,301
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-13,629
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 37 Tenant-Leaning
• State Hawaii: 37 Tenant-Leaning · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Honolulu has source-of-income protections; warranty of habitability strong.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96778

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 388
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,176 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$151 /mo · $1,812/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,975

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $229	+0% $159	+5% $88	+10% $18
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $73	+0% $159	+5% $245	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $284	-0.5pp $222	base $159	+0.5pp $94	+1.0pp $29

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 13 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $249,000 Active
18. 2026-03-11
    soldstatus $21,500 Closed 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    Opportunity to build your own home in the Hawaiian Shores Recreational Estates Subdivision. Located where many say is the heart of Puna, this vacant lot sits on a paved street surrounded by newer homes, giving a growing neighborhood feel, with the privacy of being at the less-trafficked end of the road. The property features beautiful ʻōhiʻa trees and active bird life. Subdivision benefits include a Recreational Center and Pool for residents. Enjoy access to private water, direct mail services, and a rural island lifestyle. Conveniently located near local bake stands, farmers' markets, and easy access to stunning coastal views and black sand beaches. Close to shopping, grocery stores, and medical offices. This is an excellent opportunity to build in an established community and enjoy Puna life.

19. 2026-02-07
    status Active 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    Opportunity to build your own home in the Hawaiian Shores Recreational Estates Subdivision. Located where many say is the heart of Puna, this vacant lot sits on a paved street surrounded by newer homes, giving a growing neighborhood feel, with the privacy of being at the less-trafficked end of the road. The property features beautiful ʻōhiʻa trees and active bird life. Subdivision benefits include a Recreational Center and Pool for residents. Enjoy access to private water, direct mail services, and a rural island lifestyle. Conveniently located near local bake stands, farmers' markets, and easy access to stunning coastal views and black sand beaches. Close to shopping, grocery stores, and medical offices. This is an excellent opportunity to build in an established community and enjoy Puna life.

20. 2026-02-06
    historical 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    Opportunity to build your own home in the Hawaiian Shores Recreational Estates Subdivision. Located where many say is the heart of Puna, this vacant lot sits on a paved street surrounded by newer homes, giving a growing neighborhood feel, with the privacy of being at the less-trafficked end of the road. The property features beautiful ʻōhiʻa trees and active bird life. Subdivision benefits include a Recreational Center and Pool for residents. Enjoy access to private water, direct mail services, and a rural island lifestyle. Conveniently located near local bake stands, farmers' markets, and easy access to stunning coastal views and black sand beaches. Close to shopping, grocery stores, and medical offices. This is an excellent opportunity to build in an established community and enjoy Puna life.

21. 2026-01-14
    listed $22,500 Active 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    Opportunity to build your own home in the Hawaiian Shores Recreational Estates Subdivision. Located where many say is the heart of Puna, this vacant lot sits on a paved street surrounded by newer homes, giving a growing neighborhood feel, with the privacy of being at the less-trafficked end of the road. The property features beautiful ʻōhiʻa trees and active bird life. Subdivision benefits include a Recreational Center and Pool for residents. Enjoy access to private water, direct mail services, and a rural island lifestyle. Conveniently located near local bake stands, farmers' markets, and easy access to stunning coastal views and black sand beaches. Close to shopping, grocery stores, and medical offices. This is an excellent opportunity to build in an established community and enjoy Puna life.

22. 2024-04-09
    historical
23. 2023-12-11
    listed $230,000 Active
24. 2016-11-22
    soldstatus $70,000 Sold
25. 2016-11-22
    soldstatus $70,200
26. 2016-10-07
    status Under Contract
27. 2016-10-02
    listed $65,000 Active
28. 2010-04-15
    soldstatus $65,000
29. 2010-02-17
    listed $64,900
30. 1999-12-21
    soldstatus $57,500
31. 1984-10-01
    soldstatus $51,500
32. 1984-08-01
    soldstatus $51,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast HI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,812 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$1,812
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,089
• − Management: −$2,089
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$2,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$555
• After-tax cash flow: $2,460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hawaii Department Of Education
• NCES district ID: 1500030
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $69,005
• Composite: 37.07/100
• National rank: #4504
• State rank: #1 of 1 in HI

Livability — Hawaiian Beaches

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #23148

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment D- Housing B Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hawaiian Beaches, HI
• Population (ZIP): 14,225

Population outlook (Hawaii County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,733 people
• By 2030: 232,156 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 252,486 · +14.4%
• By 2050: 272,703 · +23.5%
• By 2075: 332,113 · +50.5%
• By 2100: 398,342 · +80.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.82)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Two or more races 30% Hispanic / Latino 15% Pacific Islander 15% Asian 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Russian 7% Italian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 11% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hawaii

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.3) · D 63.0% · R 34.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.7pp · 2024: 28.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.3 2020: D+36.2 2016: D+36.6 2012: D+51.3 2008: D+53.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.52%
• Current HPI: 173.8168
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+383.5% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $249,000 HI Information Service
• 2026-03-11 Sold (MLS) $21,500 HI Information Service
• 2026-02-07 Relisted — HI Information Service
• 2026-02-06 Listing Removed — HI Information Service
• 2026-01-14 Listed $22,500 HI Information Service
• 2024-04-09 Listing Removed — HI Information Service
• 2023-12-11 Listed $230,000 HI Information Service
• 2016-11-22 Sold (MLS) $70,000 HI Information Service
• 2016-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $70,200 Public Records
• 2016-10-07 Pending — HI Information Service
• 2016-10-02 Listed $65,000 HI Information Service
• 2010-04-15 Sold (MLS) $65,000 HI Information Service
• 2010-02-17 Listed $64,900 HI Information Service
• 1999-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $57,500 Public Records
• 1984-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records
• 1984-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $51,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,812 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.