2004 N 40th St · Waco, TX 76707

$195,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1948 7,318 sqft lot Est $193k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.1/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Would you like an adorable home, on a dead end street, that's also within walking distance of near by Waco schools? Come check out this cozy 3 bedroom, 2 bath home - with an additional BONUS ROOM that can be used as a fourth bedroom, home gym, office, or game room! This home features a large master bedroom with raised entry, seating area, and it's own private bathroom featuring a tiled surround walk-in shower. The connected living and dining area, along with a large enclosed kitchen boasting beautiful granite countertops, make the perfect pairing for hosting friends and family. Enjoy relaxing on your covered back patio listening to the rain fall on the metal roof or, soak up the sun in your very own, larger than life, above ground, salt water pool. The amenities are limitless!

Key facts

• Fenced yard
• Covered back patio
• Functional layout

Tags

• QUIET DEAD-END STREET
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• FENCED YARD
• BEAUTIFUL TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking space; Attached garage (1-car) with garage facing front; Driveway; Direct garage access; 2-car single door configuration
• Utilities: City water (individual meter); City sewer; Electricity available and connected; Individual gas meter; Curbs
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Entry level: main level
• Construction: Built in 1948; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Metal and shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Covered patio; Patio; Wood fenced back yard; Fenced back yard; Cleared lot; Grassed vegetation; Poultry coop

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); One living area; One dining area; Room count: 4
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Full-size washer/dryer area; Laundry located in kitchen; On-site laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (14.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.9% in Waco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#166 in TX, #4,378 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F, employment D-.
• Waco ISD (urban): math 20% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #773 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Dean Highland El (math 15% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,805 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 598 students, 93% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 144 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,592/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($40k/yr) (locally 704% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,160 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.52%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,140
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3816 Parrott Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,468 (+10%)	3mo	$235,000	$160	66
2325 N 41st St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+3%)	9mo	$160,000	$117	63
4012 Maple Ave	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,164 (-13%)	6mo	$175,000	$150	62
3616 Parrott Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,392 (+4%)	10mo	$179,777	$129	62
3728 Parrott Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,149 (-14%)	2mo	$219,500	$191	58
3817 Leland Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+8%)	9mo	$205,000	$142	56
3320 Parrott Ave	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (-5%)	4mo	$89,000	$71	54
2433 N 42nd St	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,446 (+9%)	1mo	$220,000	$152	53
3400 Cumberland Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-12%)	2mo	$154,000	$131	51
3400 Live Oak Ave	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,306 (-2%)	10mo	$189,900	$145	49
3300 Lasker Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,464 (+10%)	1mo	$175,000	$120	48
3317 Ethel Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+6%)	9mo	$205,000	$145	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-44,664
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -26.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.16×
• Total profit: $-63,326
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76707

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 144
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,592 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,766/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,794

Max offer price $166,685

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3821 Lasker Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1209	$1,850	$1.53	21d	1	0.16mi
2213 N 41st St Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	1299	$1,550	$1.19	13d	1	0.32mi
2217 N 41st St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,295	$1.44	13d	1	0.34mi
3625 Maple Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,275	$1.34	44d	1	0.36mi
2332 Melissa Dr Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$1,395	$1.41	13d	1	0.43mi
3825 Kimberly Dr Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,250	$1.01	21d	1	0.45mi
3532 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,475	$1.34	13d	1	0.47mi
3701 Parkwood St Unit 3703 Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	13d	1	0.58mi
1300 N 43rd St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1109	$860	$0.78	21d	1	0.60mi
4019 Huaco Ln Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	875	$1,095	$1.25	21d	1	0.62mi
1309 Sunset St Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1102	$1,295	$1.18	21d	1	0.64mi
2100 N 33rd St Waco, TX	3.0	3.0	1858	$2,200	$1.18	44d	1	0.70mi
5025 Loch Lomond Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$1,850	$1.15	21d	1	0.74mi
1113 N New Rd Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,620	$1.22	21d	1	0.80mi
3125 Ethel Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1760	$1,900	$1.08	21d	1	0.82mi
2324 N 50th St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1875	$3,300	$1.76	44d	1	0.83mi
3116 Bosque Blvd Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	13d	1	0.90mi
3007 Parrott Ave Unit 1 Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1458	$1,650	$1.13	21d	1	0.92mi
3121 Colonial Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,600	$1.47	21d	1	0.92mi
3121 Colonial Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,600	$1.47	44d	1	0.92mi
3400 W Brookview Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	865	$1,209	$1.40	13d	5	0.97mi
736 Grice St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,750	$1.56	44d	1	0.98mi
4320 Guthrie Cir Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1069	$1,700	$1.59	21d	1	1.02mi
3621 Gorman Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.5	1086	$1,950	$1.80	13d	1	1.04mi
1901 N 28th St Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,950	$1.09	21d	1	1.05mi
2714 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	979	$1,300	$1.33	44d	1	1.12mi
2724 Bosque Blvd Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,100	$0.98	21d	1	1.17mi
2621 Windsor Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1108	$1,175	$1.06	21d	1	1.21mi
2705 Bosque Blvd Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,599	$1.56	44d	1	1.21mi
5101 Tennyson Dr Unit 5101-C Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	958	$1,050	$1.10	21d	1	1.22mi
901 Wooded Acres Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,340	$1.61	13d	9	1.23mi
4502 Lake Shore Dr Waco, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	820	$2,595	$3.16	13d	10	1.25mi
2704 Herring Ave Waco, TX	2.0	2.0	1286	$1,750	$1.36	21d	1	1.25mi
2805 Mitchell Ave Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	1024	$1,145	$1.12	13d	1	1.27mi
2712 Lyle Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	44d	1	1.27mi
2712 Lyle Ave Waco, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,500	$1.36	21d	1	1.27mi
2511 Parrott Ave Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	44d	1	1.27mi
4372 Lake Shore Dr Waco, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1027	$1,480	$1.44	13d	1	1.28mi
2632 Colonial Ave Unit B Waco, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,050	$1.17	21d	1	1.28mi
5813 Fairview Dr Waco, TX	3.0	2.0	1319	$1,400	$1.06	44d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $195,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,900 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    listed $199,900 Active
18. 2020-11-19
    soldstatus
19. 2020-11-17
    soldstatus 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Would you like an adorable home, on a dead end street, that's also within walking distance of near by Waco schools? Come check out this cozy 3 bedroom, 2 bath home - with an additional BONUS ROOM that can be used as a fourth bedroom, home gym, office, or game room! This home features a large master bedroom with raised entry, seating area, and it's own private bathroom featuring a tiled surround walk-in shower. The connected living and dining area, along with a large enclosed kitchen boasting beautiful granite countertops, make the perfect pairing for hosting friends and family. Enjoy relaxing on your covered back patio listening to the rain fall on the metal roof or, soak up the sun in your very own, larger than life, above ground, salt water pool. The amenities are limitless!

20. 2020-09-15
    listed $149,500 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Would you like an adorable home, on a dead end street, that's also within walking distance of near by Waco schools? Come check out this cozy 3 bedroom, 2 bath home - with an additional BONUS ROOM that can be used as a fourth bedroom, home gym, office, or game room! This home features a large master bedroom with raised entry, seating area, and it's own private bathroom featuring a tiled surround walk-in shower. The connected living and dining area, along with a large enclosed kitchen boasting beautiful granite countertops, make the perfect pairing for hosting friends and family. Enjoy relaxing on your covered back patio listening to the rain fall on the metal roof or, soak up the sun in your very own, larger than life, above ground, salt water pool. The amenities are limitless!

21. 2010-02-24
    soldstatus
22. 2006-12-29
    soldstatus
23. 2006-10-18
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,766 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,766 · $314/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,099
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$3,766
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,528
• − Management: −$1,528
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$5,293
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $-653/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844280
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $29,208
• Composite: 17.57/100
• National rank: #9043
• State rank: #773 of 826 in TX

Livability — Waco

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #166
• US rank: #4378

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waco, TX
• County: McLennan County · 213,088 people
• City population: 125,319
• Metro: Waco, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,879
• Household income: $40,443
• Rent vs Own: 41.1% rent · 58.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 704.0

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 47% Black 32% Two or more races 26% White 18%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 34% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.95%
• Current HPI: 239.639
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Waco, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+33.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2020-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-17 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-09-15 Listed $149,500 NTREIS
• 2010-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,766 · +9.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.