13325 SW 33rd Ct · Marion Oaks, FL 34473

$297,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,487 sqft · Land · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Nestled on a generous corner lot at the end of a peaceful roundabout, this brand-new construction home offers the rare combination of architectural beauty and true tranquility. The property is a standout for those seeking peace and quiet, featuring a sprawling yard fully enclosed by a 6-foot vinyl privacy fence. This expansive outdoor space serves as a secure, private retreat perfect for weekend gatherings or a quiet afternoon in the sun, all while enjoying the low-traffic benefit of its unique position on the circle. Inside, the home radiates a modern, airy energy defined by high-end finishes and an intuitive layout. Luxury Vinyl Plank (LVP) flooring stretches across ev

Key facts

• Sprawling yard
• Designer kitchen
• Quartz countertops

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SPRAWLING YARD
• 6-FOOT VINYL PRIVACY FENCE
• DESIGNER KITCHEN
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• 3-PANEL GLASS SLIDER

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $298k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (32.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (32.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.8% in Marion Oaks — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1355 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($293k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,634 (32.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.99%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-63,198
• Equity at exit: $44,418

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-90,014
• Equity at exit: $25,757

Cash invested: $83,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34473

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1355
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,562
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $636/yr
• Insurance: −$124
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,202

Max offer price $273,432

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,475
• Closing costs: $8,937
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13341 SW 29th Cir Unit NA Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,685	$1.06	21d	1	0.12mi
13341 SW 29th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,725	$1.08	13d	1	0.12mi
13410 SW 31st Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$1,899	$1.06	21d	1	0.16mi
13416 SW 31st Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,199	$1.23	13d	1	0.17mi
3995 SW 134th St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,100	$1.20	21d	1	0.61mi
12732 SW 33rd Ave Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,200	$1.30	13d	1	0.63mi
4052 SW 132nd Ln Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1751	$2,000	$1.14	21d	1	0.64mi
3892 SW 130th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,200	$1.29	13d	1	0.66mi
14007 SW 30th Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,675	$0.98	21d	1	0.71mi
13731 SW 40th Cir Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1463	$1,695	$1.16	13d	1	0.76mi
3971 SW 130th Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1485	$2,000	$1.35	13d	1	0.78mi
4004 SW 138th Pl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,695	$1.26	21d	1	0.82mi
13690 SW 43rd Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	3.0	1802	$2,200	$1.22	13d	1	0.84mi
13401 SW 43rd Avenue Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1514	$1,900	$1.25	13d	1	0.89mi
13805 SW 43rd Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1494	$1,800	$1.20	21d	1	0.99mi
4428 SW 132nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,700	$1.06	21d	1	1.00mi
14245 SW 28th Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,900	$1.07	13d	1	1.04mi
3011 SW 140th Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,695	$1.27	21d	1	1.23mi
251 Marion Oaks Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,795	$1.31	21d	1	1.27mi
4691 SW 129th Pl Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1643	$1,850	$1.13	21d	1	1.29mi
14193 SW 44th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,599	$1.10	13d	1	1.30mi
4309 SW 143rd Lane Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1238	$1,799	$1.45	13d	1	1.31mi
2730 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1373	$1,725	$1.26	21d	1	1.34mi
2632 SW 145th Place Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,675	$1.13	13d	1	1.38mi
14587 SW 25th Ter Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1580	$1,750	$1.11	21d	1	1.46mi
14525 SW 42nd Terrace Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,850	$1.38	13d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $297,900
3. 2026-04-01
   status Active
4. 2026-02-26
   status Pending
5. 2026-02-15
   listed $299,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $636 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,473 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,837/yr (+$153/mo · 289.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,687
• − Property taxes: −$636
• − Insurance: −$1,490
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − Depreciation: −$8,666
• Taxable loss: −$7,053
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,693
• After-tax cash flow: $31/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Marion Oaks

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marion Oaks, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 25,030
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,813
• Household income: $72,366
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 228.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 17% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Portuguese 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 27% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.25%
• Current HPI: 224.3536
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.67%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-0.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $297,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-15 Listed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $636 · +13.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.