638 Western Ave · Covington, KY 41011

$326,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 959 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1920

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.3/30.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful skyline view. Property has been vandalized but remains a high level Investment. Street level Apartment has access to additional upstairs Room. Being sold as is Investors may submit at any time. This Property could be used as a Single Family or Duplex

Key facts

• New water line
• Entry foyer
• Large decks

Tags

• NEW WATER LINE
• LARGE DECKS
• ENTRY FOYER
• GREAT VIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath multifamily listed at $326k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $596 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $320k (1.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $320k (1.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.3% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#40 in KY, #376 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+.
• Covington Independent (suburban): math 10% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #162 of 165 in KY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 214 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 699 units permitted in Kenton County in 2024 (287 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,200/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 1488% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kenton County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $326k implies a 3332% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $320,000 (1.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.83%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-19,643
• Equity at exit: $48,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $12,795
• Equity at exit: $28,187

Cash invested: $91,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41011

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 214
• Price-to-rent: 16.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,710
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,044/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $596

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,446

Max offer price $326,000

Occupancy floor 76%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	1	1	$1,650
1× unit	2	1	$1,551
Total (2 units)			$3,200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,500
• Closing costs: $9,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
515 Main St Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	934	$2,215	$2.37	2d	8	0.35mi
1000 Parkvale Ct Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	44d	1	0.69mi
1002 Parkvale Ct Unit 1004 1 Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	850	$995	$1.17	44d	1	0.70mi
22 Swain Ct Covington, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	951	$2,295	$2.41	2d	3	0.74mi
50 W Rivercenter Blvd Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1273	$3,640	$2.86	2d	9	0.78mi
1261 Parkway Ave Covington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	4d	3	0.81mi
1431 Dixie Hwy Park Hills, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	920	$2,553	$2.77	2d	10	0.87mi
1025 Scott St Unit 2 Covington, KY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	3d	1	0.89mi
44 W Freedom Way Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	943	$2,859	$3.03	2d	28	1.13mi
205 W 4th St Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	648	$2,162	$3.33	2d	44	1.20mi
151 W 4th St Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0	726	$2,399	$3.30	2d	102	1.21mi
121 E Freedom Way Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	988	$2,999	$3.03	2d	27	1.23mi
309 Vine St Cincinnati, OH	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	955	$3,334	$3.49	2d	15	1.25mi
344 E 13th St Unit 1 Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,275	$1.27	24d	1	1.26mi
1 W 4th St Cincinnati, OH	3.0	1.0–3.5	1675	$9,200	$5.49	3d	96	1.29mi
1215 Elberta Cir Park Hills, KY	2.0	1.0	825	$1,050	$1.27	3d	1	1.39mi
5 Devou Woods Covington, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$890	$1.27	2d	1	1.42mi
105 Ash St Unit 1364141P Ludlow, KY	2.0	1.0	699	$2,906	$4.16	7d	1	1.43mi
210 W 5th St Newport, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$1,800	$2.13	3d	15	1.44mi
309 Sycamore St #201 Cincinnati, OH	2.0	2.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	24d	1	1.44mi
151 Seventh St W Cincinnati, OH	2.0	1.0–2.0	1191	$2,129	$1.79	2d	4	1.46mi
7 W 7th St Cincinnati, OH	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	976	$3,420	$3.50	3d	65	1.50mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $326,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $326,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $326,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $326,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $326,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $326,000 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $326,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $326,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $326,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $326,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $326,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-05-20
    listed $326,000 Active
13. 2017-02-17
    historical
14. 2016-08-11
    listed $110,000
15. 2015-10-30
    soldstatus $9,500 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    Wonderful skyline view. Property has been vandalized but remains a high level Investment. Street level Apartment has access to additional upstairs Room. Being sold as is Investors may submit at any time. This Property could be used as a Single Family or Duplex

16. 2015-10-30
    soldstatus $9,500

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    Wonderful skyline view. Property has been vandalized but remains a high level Investment. Street level Apartment has access to additional upstairs Room. Being sold as is Investors may submit at any time. This Property could be used as a Single Family or Duplex

17. 2015-08-18
    listed $9,900 260-char remark

    Show marketing remark (260 chars)

    Wonderful skyline view. Property has been vandalized but remains a high level Investment. Street level Apartment has access to additional upstairs Room. Being sold as is Investors may submit at any time. This Property could be used as a Single Family or Duplex

18. 2015-07-17
    listed $9,900
19. 2015-03-31
    historical
20. 2013-04-10
    listed $45,000
21. 2013-01-17
    historical
22. 2012-07-18
    listed $75,000
23. 2011-06-10
    historical
24. 2010-09-10
    listed $104,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,044 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,804 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,760/yr (+$147/mo · 168.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,261
• − Property taxes: −$1,044
• − Insurance: −$1,630
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,072
• − Management: −$3,072
• − Depreciation: −$9,484
• Taxable income: $1,837
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$441
• After-tax cash flow: $6,706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Covington Independent
• NCES district ID: 2101350
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $33,681
• Composite: 15.04/100
• National rank: #9353
• State rank: #162 of 165 in KY

Livability — Covington

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #376

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Covington, KY
• County: Kenton County · 142,881 people
• City population: 34,373
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 26,981
• Household income: $69,970
• Rent vs Own: 53.9% rent · 46.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1488.0

Population outlook (Kenton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 174,205 people
• By 2030: 177,897 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 182,671 · +4.9%
• By 2050: 183,543 · +5.4%
• By 2075: 178,977 · +2.7%
• By 2100: 159,920 · -8.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 10% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kenton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.7) · D 38.2% · R 59.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: -20.9pp · 2024: -21.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.7 2020: R+19.3 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+24.3 2008: R+20.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -215.20%
• Current HPI: 237.0869
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+210.8% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Listed $326,000 FSBO.com
• 2017-02-17 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2016-08-11 Listed $110,000 NKMLS
• 2015-10-30 Sold (MLS) $9,500 NKMLS
• 2015-10-30 Sold (MLS) $9,500 NKMLS
• 2015-08-18 Listed $9,900 NKMLS
• 2015-07-17 Listed $9,900 NKMLS
• 2015-03-31 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2013-04-10 Listed $45,000 NKMLS
• 2013-01-17 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2012-07-18 Listed $75,000 NKMLS
• 2011-06-10 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2010-09-10 Listed $104,900 NKMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,044 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.