Pecos Plan · Austin, TX 78724

$109,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect starter home with the Pecos Farmhouse. This expansive 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers over 1,400 square feet of comfortable living space. Ideal for first-time homebuyers, the Pecos Farmhouse provides a fantastic foundation for building your dream life. The open floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere. Enjoy the convenience of a kitchen island, double vanity sinks in the bathroom, and a dedicated laundry room. Key features include: Air conditioning Double sinks in bathroom Entertainment unit Kitchen island Open floor plan Utility room Experience the charm of farmhouse living combined with modern amenities. Contact us today to learn more about the Pecos Farmhouse.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Utility room
• Entertainment unit

Tags

• KITCHEN ISLAND
• DOUBLE SINKS IN BATHROOM
• ENTERTAINMENT UNIT
• UTILITY ROOM
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

🏗️ New construction. The $109,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $205,435.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $235 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 1.8% in Austin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#16 in TX, #1,208 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D, crime F.
• Manor ISD (rural): math 18% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #729 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 180 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,395 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.67%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.91%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $205,435
• List price: $109,995
• Delta: -46.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-23,889
• Equity at exit: $30,631

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-23,209
• Equity at exit: $17,762

Cash invested: $57,522 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78724

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,095 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,077
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$257 /mo · $3,082/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $235

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,797

Max offer price $205,435

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $306	+0% $235	+5% $164	+10% $93
Rent	-10% $70	-5% $153	+0% $235	+5% $318	+10% $401
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $288	base $235	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $128

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,359
• Closing costs: $6,163
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6109 Decker Ln Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1277	$2,059	$1.61	21d	1	0.15mi
6109 Decker Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$2,275	$1.50	17d	1	0.15mi
8310 Canoga Ave Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1167	$1,450	$1.24	44d	1	0.16mi
6107 Decker Ln Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,785	$2.81	2d	62	0.20mi
6506 Decker Ln Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1164	$1,599	$1.37	44d	1	0.33mi
8701 Decker Lake Rd Austin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,887	$2.02	2d	142	0.39mi
8703 Decker Lake Rd Austin, TX	2.0	2.0	1241	$1,747	$1.41	21d	1	0.42mi
8101 Loyola Ln Austin, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1333	$3,049	$2.29	3d	99	0.48mi
8305 Garcreek Cir Unit A&C Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1100	$1,399	$1.27	44d	1	0.55mi
8401 Garcreek Cir Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,850	$1.54	4d	1	0.57mi
9212 China Rose Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1429	$1,800	$1.26	44d	1	0.58mi
9351 Decker Lake Rd Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1002	$1,732	$1.73	2d	12	0.59mi
5813 Knoll Pines Pass Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,750	$1.15	5d	1	0.62mi
5301 Decker Ln Austin, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,752	$1.71	2d	15	0.63mi
9025 Sun Shower Bnd Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$2,200	$1.29	24d	1	0.65mi
5717 Levenwood Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,895	$1.25	18d	1	0.69mi
6013 Florencia Ln Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	1957	$3,600	$1.84	13d	1	0.71mi
5517 Agatha Cir Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1627	$2,850	$1.75	5d	1	0.83mi
7000 Decker Ln Austin, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	955	$1,626	$1.70	4d	19	0.83mi
5928 Signal Pt Austin, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	0.85mi
5724 Signal Pt Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,725	$1.31	44d	1	0.86mi
6308 Perlita Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1438	$1,895	$1.32	44d	1	0.86mi
5929 Alsace Trl Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,950	$1.48	24d	1	0.91mi
5334 Sendero Hills Pkwy Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	2166	$4,299	$1.98	24d	1	0.91mi
6902 Colony Park Dr Austin, TX	4.0	1.5	1500	$2,250	$1.50	24d	1	1.27mi
8340 Mimi Ln Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	1811	$2,700	$1.49	5d	1	1.29mi
8304 Mimi Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2138	$2,425	$1.13	24d	1	1.30mi
8025 City Top Blvd Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$2,300	$1.56	24d	1	1.34mi
8220 Linnie Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,700	$1.23	24d	1	1.36mi
7717 Lowenfield Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$2,270	$1.50	24d	1	1.37mi
7120 Carwill Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	15d	1	1.38mi
7512 Daves Landing Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$2,200	$1.61	24d	1	1.43mi
6809 Jaired Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1162	$1,900	$1.64	44d	1	1.43mi
7925 Linnie Ln Austin, TX	4.0	2.5	2216	$2,395	$1.08	5d	1	1.44mi
7320 Muffin Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.0	1499	$2,045	$1.36	15d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $109,995 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,995 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,995 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,995 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,995 Active 65 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,995 Active 63 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,995 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $109,995 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,995 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $109,995 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,995 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,995 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,995 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,995 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $109,995 Active 703-char remark

    Show marketing remark (703 chars)

    Discover the perfect starter home with the Pecos Farmhouse. This expansive 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home offers over 1,400 square feet of comfortable living space. Ideal for first-time homebuyers, the Pecos Farmhouse provides a fantastic foundation for building your dream life. The open floor plan creates a welcoming atmosphere. Enjoy the convenience of a kitchen island, double vanity sinks in the bathroom, and a dedicated laundry room. Key features include: Air conditioning Double sinks in bathroom Entertainment unit Kitchen island Open floor plan Utility room Experience the charm of farmhouse living combined with modern amenities. Contact us today to learn more about the Pecos Farmhouse.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,508
• − Property taxes: −$3,082
• − Insurance: −$1,027
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,011
• − Management: −$2,011
• − Depreciation: −$5,976
• Taxable loss: −$475
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$114
• After-tax cash flow: $2,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Pecos Farmhouse mobile home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It is move-in ready with a cosmetic rehab level and minor maintenance items to address. The home has a good resale and rental value with updates like painting the exterior siding and installing hardwood flooring and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value.
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and home value. ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Hardwood flooring is more durable and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828890
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,255
• Composite: 20.14/100
• National rank: #8641
• State rank: #729 of 826 in TX

Livability — Austin

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #1208

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 1,066,854
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,103
• Household income: $77,926
• Rent vs Own: 39.4% rent · 60.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 873.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 30% Black 15% White 15% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 48% English-only · Spanish 48% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -42.92%
• Current HPI: 284.1007
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $109,995 Zillow