558 Yale Farm Rd · Geneva, NY 14541

$209,777

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,128 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1998 1.90 ac lot $99/sqft · 70% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy views of Seneca Lake with 1.9 acres. Private and tranquil setting. Minutes from wineries, fishing and relaxation. Ranch double-wide with vaulted ceilings. Kitchen open to the living room, formal dining room, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, Primary suite with primary bath, walk-in closet, central air, 2 decks, insulated 3 car detached garage, Storage buildings, mature trees with room to grow! Delayed negotiations until 9/30/24 at 3PM

Key facts

• 1.9 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Built 1998

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with 3 spaces; Garage with workshop, electricity and garage door opener; Electric vehicle charging station
• Utilities: Public water connected; Septic tank; Circuit breaker electric service; Cable and high-speed internet available
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story (1 story); Existing construction; Block foundation; Asphalt roof; Rectangular, rural and agricultural lot (approximately 1.9 acres, dimensions 178 x 452)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; PEX plumbing
• Exterior features: Deck; Partial fencing; Fence; Gravel driveway; Propane tank (owned); Barn(s) and outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; 3 bathrooms located on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Separate/formal living room; Main level primary suite; Bedroom on main level; Primary suite
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on the main level; Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-134 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (18.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (18.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#177 in NY, #2,760 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, employment D.
• Romulus Central School District (rural): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #535 of 755 in NY (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Seneca County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Seneca County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $171,295 (18.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.75%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $710,000
• List price: $209,777
• Delta: -70.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4911 E Lake Rd	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,886 (-11%)	4mo	$610,000	$323	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $105,737
• Equity at exit: $188,984

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $318,210
• Equity at exit: $407,551

Cash invested: $58,738 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14541

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,713 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,100
• Tax from tax record: −$300 /mo · $3,602/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$360
• Net cashflow: $-134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,883

Max offer price $186,030

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-16	-5% $-75	+0% $-134	+5% $-194	+10% $-253
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-202	+0% $-134	+5% $-67	+10% $1
Rate	-1.0pp $-29	-0.5pp $-81	base $-134	+0.5pp $-189	+1.0pp $-244

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,444
• Closing costs: $6,293
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-05-12
   historical Active Under Contract 912-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $209,777 Active 912-char remark
3. 2024-12-12
   soldstatus $189,000
4. 2024-12-04
   soldstatus $189,000 Closed 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Enjoy views of Seneca Lake with 1.9 acres. Private and tranquil setting. Minutes from wineries, fishing and relaxation. Ranch double-wide with vaulted ceilings. Kitchen open to the living room, formal dining room, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, Primary suite with primary bath, walk-in closet, central air, 2 decks, insulated 3 car detached garage, Storage buildings, mature trees with room to grow! Delayed negotiations until 9/30/24 at 3PM

5. 2024-10-03
   status Pending 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Enjoy views of Seneca Lake with 1.9 acres. Private and tranquil setting. Minutes from wineries, fishing and relaxation. Ranch double-wide with vaulted ceilings. Kitchen open to the living room, formal dining room, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, Primary suite with primary bath, walk-in closet, central air, 2 decks, insulated 3 car detached garage, Storage buildings, mature trees with room to grow! Delayed negotiations until 9/30/24 at 3PM

6. 2024-09-23
   listed $149,900 Active 433-char remark

   Show marketing remark (433 chars)

   Enjoy views of Seneca Lake with 1.9 acres. Private and tranquil setting. Minutes from wineries, fishing and relaxation. Ranch double-wide with vaulted ceilings. Kitchen open to the living room, formal dining room, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, Primary suite with primary bath, walk-in closet, central air, 2 decks, insulated 3 car detached garage, Storage buildings, mature trees with room to grow! Delayed negotiations until 9/30/24 at 3PM

7. 2017-04-04
   soldstatus $114,000
8. 2017-04-03
   soldstatus $114,000

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   Enjoy views of Seneca Lake with 1.9 acres. Ranch double-wide with vaulted ceilings - kitchen open to the living room, formal dining room, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, Master with master bath and garden tub, walk-in closet, central air, 2 decks, insulated 3 car detached garage with garage door openers, paved driveway, Storage buildings, very private setting , mature trees with room to grow! Town water for inside & well water for gardening!

9. 2016-05-21
   listed $116,500

   Show marketing remark (442 chars)

   Enjoy views of Seneca Lake with 1.9 acres. Ranch double-wide with vaulted ceilings - kitchen open to the living room, formal dining room, 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, Master with master bath and garden tub, walk-in closet, central air, 2 decks, insulated 3 car detached garage with garage door openers, paved driveway, Storage buildings, very private setting , mature trees with room to grow! Town water for inside & well water for gardening!

10. 2010-12-17
    soldstatus $100,000
11. 2010-03-31
    listed $107,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,602 · $300/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,602 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,555
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,751
• − Property taxes: −$3,602
• − Insurance: −$1,049
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,644
• − Management: −$1,644
• − Depreciation: −$6,103
• Taxable loss: −$5,238
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,257
• After-tax cash flow: $-356/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Romulus Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624930
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $56,592
• Composite: 41.89/100
• National rank: #7126
• State rank: #535 of 755 in NY

Livability — Geneva

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #177
• US rank: #2760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,523

Population outlook (Seneca County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,457 people
• By 2030: 32,540 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 30,680 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 28,875 · -13.7%
• By 2075: 24,757 · -26.0%
• By 2100: 19,591 · -41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 4% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Seneca

• 2024 margin: R (+11.8) · D 44.1% · R 55.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -11.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.8 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+12.1 2012: D+9.2 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.44%
• Current HPI: 354.6427
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+94.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $209,777 UNYREIS
• 2024-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-04 Sold (MLS) $189,000 UNYREIS
• 2024-10-03 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-09-23 Listed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2017-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $114,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-03 Sold (MLS) $114,000 UNYREIS
• 2016-05-21 Listed $116,500 UNYREIS
• 2010-12-17 Sold (MLS) $100,000 UNYREIS
• 2010-03-31 Listed $107,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,602 · +8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.