196 Lago Vista St · Mercedes, TX 78570

$68,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 930 sqft · Other · 34 Days on market

Built 2014 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks

15 x 68 2014 Champion mobile home on leased land in LLano Grande Resort, Mercedes TX. Lot rent is $650 includes: internet, water, sewer and trash.

Key facts

• Built 2014
• Listed 34 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $69k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $420 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 3.3% in Mercedes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#547 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Weslaco ISD (suburban): math 23% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #705 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 390 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($476 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.5% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (4.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $66,833 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.15%
• DSCR: 2.16
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $40,817
• Equity at exit: $37,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.25×
• Total profit: $101,216
• Equity at exit: $62,414

Cash invested: $19,292 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78570

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,135 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$361
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$86 /mo · $1,034/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $420

Break-even live

Break-even rent $603

Max offer price $68,900

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,225
• Closing costs: $2,067
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2801 Laquinta Weslaco, TX	2.0	1.0	984	$1,350	$1.37	43d	1	1.14mi
3918 Las Vistas Ln Unit 4 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	1061	$1,125	$1.06	43d	1	1.35mi
1635 Playa Dr Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$1,095	$1.11	43d	1	1.36mi
3921 Las Vistas Ln Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,050	$0.98	43d	1	1.38mi
1630 Playa Dr Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	935	$1,095	$1.17	43d	1	1.39mi
3808 Las Vistas Ln Unit 1 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$1,100	$1.19	43d	1	1.42mi
3814 Bella Costa Dr Unit 2 Weslaco, TX	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,175	$1.08	43d	1	1.42mi
1603 Playa Dr Unit 3 Weslaco, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	43d	1	1.45mi
1511 Playa Dr Unit 2 Progreso Lakes, TX	3.0	2.0	987	$1,250	$1.27	43d	1	1.46mi
1424 Alta Vista Dr Apt 1 Progreso Lakes, TX	2.0	2.0	825	$995	$1.21	43d	1	1.47mi
1413 Alta Vista Dr Unit 4 Progreso Lakes, TX	3.0	2.0	1087	$1,150	$1.06	43d	1	1.48mi
1416 Alta Vista Dr Apt 1 Progreso Lakes, TX	2.0	2.0	985	$1,025	$1.04	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,900 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,900 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,900 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,900 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,900 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $68,900 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $68,900 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $68,900 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $68,900 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $68,900 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $68,900 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $68,900 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,900 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-16
    listed $68,900 Active 146-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,617
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,859
• − Property taxes: −$1,034
• − Insurance: −$344
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,089
• − Management: −$1,089
• − Depreciation: −$2,004
• Taxable income: $4,197
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,007
• After-tax cash flow: $4,037/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 40/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in fair condition with cosmetic repairs needed. Painting, flooring replacement, and exterior siding repair would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor exterior siding — Siding shows some wear
• Minor flooring — Flooring looks worn

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value
• Both replace worn flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the home's condition and appeal
• Both repair exterior siding — Fresh siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Siding shows some wear	Minor	$500–3,000
flooring · Flooring looks worn	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both replace worn flooring — New flooring can significantly improve the home's condition and appeal ↑
• Both repair exterior siding — Fresh siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weslaco ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844960
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $32,867
• Composite: 22.05/100
• National rank: #8196
• State rank: #705 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mercedes

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #547
• US rank: #10619

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mercedes, TX
• City population: 33,596
• Population (ZIP): 33,596

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 96% Two or more races 44% White 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 91%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Current HPI: 238.8386
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $68,900 FSBO.com