807 NW 5th St · Andrews, TX 79714

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,433 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1955 8,276 sqft lot $104/sqft · 29% below area Est $211k · 29% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3-bedroom, 3-bath home featuring a new roof installed last year—making it a solid and reliable investment opportunity.

Key facts

• New roof
• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Built 1955

Tags

• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $224 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $149k).
• Recommended offer: $140k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#151 in TX, #4,199 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Andrews ISD (town): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #311 of 826 in TX (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 72 units permitted in Andrews County in 2024 (48 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Andrews County population projected at +90% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.43%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $211,086
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -29.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1102 NW 13th St	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,506 (+5%)	18mo	$169,900	$113	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-9,845
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $10,004
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79714

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,657 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,906/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$348
• Net cashflow: $224

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,374

Max offer price $149,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
601 NW 12th Pl Andrews, TX	3.0	2.0	1705	$1,875	$1.10	43d	1	0.54mi
400 NW 12th St Andrews, TX	3.0	2.0	1152	$1,450	$1.26	43d	1	0.58mi
200 NW Avenue M Andrews, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$1,900	$2.11	43d	12	0.60mi
1103 SW 2nd St Unit A Andrews, TX	2.0	2.0	1007	$1,450	$1.44	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   pricedays on market $149,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,500 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,500 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $154,500 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $154,500 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,500 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,500 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,500 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $154,500 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    listed $154,500 Active 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Beautiful 3-bedroom, 3-bath home featuring a new roof installed last year—making it a solid and reliable investment opportunity.

17. 2025-10-11
    price $159,500
18. 2025-10-10
    price $155,000
19. 2025-06-20
    price $160,000
20. 2025-05-28
    price $166,000
21. 1994-05-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,906 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,906 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$2,906
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,591
• − Management: −$1,591
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable income: $373
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$89
• After-tax cash flow: $2,593/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Andrews ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808280
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $59,795
• Composite: 36.68/100
• National rank: #4606
• State rank: #311 of 826 in TX

Livability — Andrews

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #151
• US rank: #4199

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Andrews, TX
• County: Andrews County · 18,610 people
• City population: 18,610
• Metro: Andrews, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,610
• Household income: $72,242
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 277.0

Population outlook (Andrews County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,215 people
• By 2030: 29,208 · +15.8%
• By 2040: 38,047 · +50.9%
• By 2050: 47,841 · +89.7%
• By 2075: 74,028 · +193.6%
• By 2100: 94,141 · +273.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (57%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 57% White 40% Two or more races 24% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 40%

Political lean MEDSL · Andrews

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.6) · D 13.3% · R 85.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.2pp toward R · 2008: -65.4pp · 2024: -72.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.6 2020: R+69.8 2016: R+62.7 2012: R+63.5 2008: R+65.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.13%
• Current HPI: 216.4244
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Andrews, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Listed $154,500 ODMLS
• 2025-10-11 Price Changed $159,500 ODMLS
• 2025-10-10 Price Changed $155,000 ODMLS
• 2025-06-20 Price Changed $160,000 ODMLS
• 2025-05-28 Price Changed $166,000 ODMLS
• 1994-05-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,906 · +15.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.