408 E Gardenia Ave · Hidalgo, TX 78557

$117,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 860 sqft · SingleFamily · 137 Days on market

Built 1980 Poor condition 0.26 ac lot $136/sqft · 50% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This property is a fantastic opportunity for investors or buyers looking to create their dream home. Situated on a spacious lot in a well-established neighborhood. Outside, you’ll find a large backyard perfect for entertaining or expansion. Close to Hidalgo International bridge. Property is sold 'AS IS'. Utilities will not be turned on.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Spacious lot
• 0.26 acre lot

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• LARGE BACKYARD
• WELL-ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $117k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $376 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.2% in Hidalgo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#488 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hidalgo ISD (suburban): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #678 of 826 in TX (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 98 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($809 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,960 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.77%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,867
• List price: $117,000
• Delta: 50.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 E Gardenia Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	860 (0%)	20mo	$78,000	$91	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $87,689
• Equity at exit: $105,403

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.31×
• Total profit: $239,445
• Equity at exit: $227,305

Cash invested: $32,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78557

• Home prices YoY: 17.9%
• Active inventory: 98
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,499 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$614
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$146 /mo · $1,755/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $376

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,023

Max offer price $117,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $457	-5% $416	+0% $376	+5% $336	+10% $295
Rent	-10% $258	-5% $317	+0% $376	+5% $435	+10% $494
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $406	base $376	+0.5pp $346	+1.0pp $315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,250
• Closing costs: $3,510
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
605 Buccaneer Dr Unit 3 Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,400	$1.31	24d	1	0.75mi
607 Buccaneer Dr Unit 4 Hidalgo, TX	3.0	2.0	1068	$1,600	$1.50	44d	1	0.76mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $117,000 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $117,000 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-01-14
   listed $117,000 Active 345-char remark

   Show marketing remark (345 chars)

   This property is a fantastic opportunity for investors or buyers looking to create their dream home. Situated on a spacious lot in a well-established neighborhood. Outside, you’ll find a large backyard perfect for entertaining or expansion. Close to Hidalgo International bridge. Property is sold 'AS IS'. Utilities will not be turned on.

4. 2025-07-09
   listed $117,000 Active
5. 2024-10-23
   soldstatus Sold
6. 2024-08-22
   status Pending
7. 2024-07-10
   price $78,000
8. 2024-05-25
   listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,554
• − Property taxes: −$1,755
• − Insurance: −$585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − Depreciation: −$3,404
• Taxable income: $2,816
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$676
• After-tax cash flow: $3,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations to bring it up to code and improve its value. Immediate repairs are needed to address safety hazards and structural issues.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed wiring — Safety hazard
• Major Worn cabinets — Structural integrity
• Major Worn carpet — Safety hazard
• Major Peeling paint — Safety hazard
• Major Exposed wiring — Safety hazard

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and property value
• Both Painting — Enhances interior and exterior appearance
• Both Reframing windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Both Rebuilding cabinets — Restores structural integrity and functionality
• Both Replacing carpet — Improves comfort and safety

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed wiring · Safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Worn cabinets · Structural integrity	Major	$15,000–50,000
Worn carpet · Safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Peeling paint · Safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed wiring · Safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Painting — Enhances interior and exterior appearance ↑
• Both Reframing windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Rebuilding cabinets — Restores structural integrity and functionality ↑
• Both Replacing carpet — Improves comfort and safety ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hidalgo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823100
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $35,219
• Composite: 23.52/100
• National rank: #7866
• State rank: #678 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hidalgo

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #488
• US rank: #9681

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hidalgo, TX
• City population: 14,250
• Population (ZIP): 14,250

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 99% Two or more races 47%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 39% · Canada
• Languages at home: 6% English-only · Spanish 94%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.26%
• Current HPI: 225.701
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+46.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Listed $117,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $117,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-10-23 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-08-22 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2024-07-10 Price Changed $78,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2024-05-25 Listed $80,000 MCALLENMLS