7647 S Scenic Hwy · Bland, VA 24315

$150,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,592 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1980 5.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

The house has a new survey with 5 acres. There is a right of way through the front acreage (also available) to the home. The house was in good condition until a leak from the patio into the basement created a problem. The living area is fair condition but could use remodeling. The house is being sold "AS IS/WHERE IS WITH NO WARRENTIES OR GUARANTEES. The house by itself will only sell with cash. House has well and septic but water and sewer is available at the public road.

Key facts

• Gas well
• Septic
• 5 acres

Tags

• 5 ACRES
• RIGHT OF WAY
• GAS WELL
• SEPTIC
• WATER AND SEWER AVAILABLE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#202 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Bland County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #23 of 131 in VA (top 18%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Bland County Elementary (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B, #416 of 1,108 statewide, top 41%, 371 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 32% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Bland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Bland County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $150k implies a 278% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.77%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.3% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.14×
• Total profit: $47,764
• Equity at exit: $87,788

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.19×
• Total profit: $133,957
• Equity at exit: $153,864

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24315

• Home prices YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,376 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $858/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,165

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $252	-5% $209	+0% $167	+5% $124	+10% $82
Rent	-10% $58	-5% $112	+0% $167	+5% $221	+10% $276
Rate	-1.0pp $242	-0.5pp $205	base $167	+0.5pp $128	+1.0pp $88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-11-06
   status Pending
2. 2025-07-11
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 2024-03-19
   historical
4. 2023-08-29
   status Active
5. 2023-08-22
   historical
6. 2020-12-11
   listed $750,000 Active
7. 2019-05-13
   listed $1,080,000
8. 1993-12-06
   soldstatus $39,640

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $858 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,230 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 43.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 4 d/yr ≥91°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$858
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,321
• − Management: −$1,321
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$499
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$120
• After-tax cash flow: $2,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100390
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $44,048
• Composite: 59.56/100
• National rank: #917
• State rank: #23 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bland

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #202
• US rank: #6245

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,789

Population outlook (Bland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,172 people
• By 2030: 5,928 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 5,402 · -12.5%
• By 2050: 4,926 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 4,051 · -34.4%
• By 2100: 3,028 · -50.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Black 6% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.7) · D 14.8% · R 84.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -39.4pp · 2024: -69.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.7 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+67.8 2012: R+48.0 2008: R+39.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.30%
• Current HPI: 166.2616
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+278.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-06 Pending — SWVAR
• 2025-07-11 Listed $150,000 SWVAR
• 2024-03-19 Delisted — SWVAR
• 2023-08-29 Relisted — SWVAR
• 2023-08-22 Delisted — SWVAR
• 2020-12-11 Listed $750,000 SWVAR
• 2019-05-13 Listed $1,080,000 NRVMLS
• 1993-12-06 Sold (Public Records) $39,640 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $858 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.