5730 Roadhouse Dr · Forney, TX 75126

$229,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · Land · 22 Days on market

Built 2026

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This one-story home is the ideal space for couples or families looking to create new memories. Enjoy cooking on granite countertops while using brand new stainless steel appliances. The Atlantis includes an open concept kitchen and a patio that's perfect for entertaining.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Granite countertops
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• PATIO FOR ENTERTAINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $229k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $205k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.1% in Forney — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby El (math 37% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 682 students, 59% FRL); Brown Middle (math 29% / reading 39%, grade F, #892 of 1,662 statewide, top 55%, 673 students, 56% FRL); North Forney H S (math 32% / reading 45%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 2,502 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2200 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $204,771 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.08%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-26,497
• Equity at exit: $34,145

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-18,250
• Equity at exit: $19,800

Cash invested: $64,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2200
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,048 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,201
• Tax from tax record: −$103 /mo · $1,238/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,772

Max offer price $229,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $348	-5% $283	+0% $218	+5% $153	+10% $89
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $137	+0% $218	+5% $299	+10% $380
Rate	-1.0pp $334	-0.5pp $276	base $218	+0.5pp $159	+1.0pp $98

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,250
• Closing costs: $6,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5730 Roadhouse Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$2,150	$1.79	8d	1	0.01mi
6086 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,995	$1.41	9d	1	0.09mi
6222 Old Bridge Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,795	$1.27	14d	1	0.10mi
6211 Old Bridge Way Unit 6211OB Heath, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,845	$1.31	4d	1	0.14mi
6309 Tropicana Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,050	$1.45	45d	1	0.20mi
6029 Mojave Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,695	$1.41	26d	1	0.21mi
6109 Harrah Ln Unit 6109HL Heath, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,745	$1.25	4d	1	0.22mi
6103 Harrah Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,845	$1.31	4d	1	0.24mi
6101 Harrah Ln Unit 6101HL Heath, TX	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,745	$1.25	26d	1	0.24mi
6624 Charleston Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,045	$1.45	5d	1	0.26mi
3112 Shorthorn Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,150	$1.48	9d	1	1.09mi
3083 Chillingham Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$2,800	$2.29	45d	1	1.20mi
1222 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,775	$1.36	45d	1	1.39mi
1228 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,785	$1.23	45d	1	1.41mi
1227 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1474	$1,995	$1.35	45d	1	1.42mi
1229 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,785	$1.22	45d	1	1.42mi
1231 Canyon Wren Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,785	$1.23	45d	1	1.43mi
1419 Merlin Bluff St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,900	$1.31	14d	1	1.45mi
1405 Merlin Bluff St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	8d	1	1.47mi
1716 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,785	$1.23	45d	1	1.48mi
1718 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,730	$1.32	23d	1	1.48mi
1720 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,785	$1.22	45d	1	1.49mi
1719 Crossbill St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,795	$1.22	23d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $229,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $229,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-05-12
   listed $229,000 Active 272-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,238 · $103/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,191 · $349/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,953/yr (+$246/mo · 238.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,573
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,828
• − Property taxes: −$1,238
• − Insurance: −$1,145
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,966
• − Management: −$1,966
• − Depreciation: −$6,662
• Taxable loss: −$1,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$296
• After-tax cash flow: $2,914/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed for Rent $2,150 NTREIS