Plan 2062 Modeled Plan · Cresson, TX 76008

$359,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,062 sqft · SingleFamily · 349 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Den * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Front porch
• Kitchen island

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $359,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $419,627.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-822 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $301k (16.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $263k (26.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $263k (26.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#843 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: health & safety D+, crime D, schools F.
• Aledo ISD (rural): math 66% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #11 of 826 in TX (top 1%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 818 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 437 units permitted in Parker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Parker County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 349 days — a 12% lower offer ($317k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $263,024 (26.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 349 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.40%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $419,627
• List price: $359,995
• Delta: -14.21%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 Gallegos Rd	0.07mi	4/2.0	2,062 (0%)	4mo	$402,193	$195	93
165 Gallegos Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,062 (0%)	5mo	$406,438	$197	91
125 Gallegos Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0	2,062 (0%)	7mo	$375,047	$182	91
345 Fallbrook Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	2,062 (0%)	3mo	$417,852	$203	90
344 Fallbrook Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,062 (0%)	3mo	$387,265	$188	90
348 Fallbrook Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	2,062 (0%)	2mo	$419,627	$204	90
113 Gallegos Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,888 (-8%)	3mo	$359,568	$190	79
649 Fallbrook Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,888 (-8%)	2mo	$359,778	$191	78
200 Gallegos Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,355 (+14%)	3mo	$419,633	$178	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-118,128
• Equity at exit: $62,568

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.37×
• Total profit: $-160,992
• Equity at exit: $36,282

Cash invested: $117,496 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76008

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 818
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,630 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,201
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$525 /mo · $6,294/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$552
• Net cashflow: $-822

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,671

Max offer price $300,674

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-532	-5% $-677	+0% $-822	+5% $-967	+10% $-1,112
Rent	-10% $-1,030	-5% $-926	+0% $-822	+5% $-718	+10% $-614
Rate	-1.0pp $-611	-0.5pp $-715	base $-822	+0.5pp $-931	+1.0pp $-1,041

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,907
• Closing costs: $12,589
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $359,995 Active 349 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $359,995 Active 348 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $359,995 Active 347 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $359,995 Active 346 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $359,995 Active 344 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $359,995 Active 340 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $359,995 Active 339 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $359,995 Active 338 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $373,995 Active 335 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $373,995 Active 334 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $373,995 Active 333 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $373,995 Active 332 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $373,995 Active 331 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    price $373,995 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

15. 2026-04-16
    price $371,995 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

16. 2026-03-25
    price $369,995 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

17. 2026-02-28
    status Active 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

18. 2026-02-27
    historical 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

19. 2026-01-10
    price $359,995 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

20. 2025-11-19
    price $349,995 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

21. 2025-11-06
    price $378,995 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

22. 2025-09-12
    price $368,995 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

23. 2025-07-04
    listed $373,995 Active 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    * Den * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Dual-sink vanity at primary bath * Front porch * Smart thermostat * Tankless water heater * Spacious great room * Kitchen island * Open floor plan * Granite kitchen countertops * WaterSense® labeled faucets * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Award-winning schools * Convenient to downtown * Oversized homesites * Close to golf courses * Planned swimming pools * Pickleball courts

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,506
• − Property taxes: −$6,294
• − Insurance: −$2,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,525
• − Management: −$2,525
• − Depreciation: −$12,207
• Taxable loss: −$17,593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,222
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,642/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Aledo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807780
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $102,936
• Composite: 61.94/100
• National rank: #725
• State rank: #11 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cresson

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #15205

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Parker County · 144,797 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,165
• Household income: $168,314
• Rent vs Own: 8.2% rent · 91.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 27.0

Population outlook (Parker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 147,426 people
• By 2030: 157,863 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 177,519 · +20.4%
• By 2050: 194,786 · +32.1%
• By 2075: 238,799 · +62.0%
• By 2100: 264,126 · +79.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Parker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.4) · D 16.4% · R 82.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -55.2pp · 2024: -66.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.4 2020: R+64.4 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+55.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.05%
• Current HPI: 242.9582
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.82%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $373,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $371,995 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $369,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-28 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Delisted — Zillow
• 2026-01-10 Price Changed $359,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-19 Price Changed $349,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-06 Price Changed $378,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $368,995 Zillow
• 2025-07-04 Listed $373,995 Zillow