🏗️ New Construction
24153 NW Tamarind Ln · Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL
Flood risk 1/10 · Minimal
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.0%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 9/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 106°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 22 days/yr
Wind risk 9/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 1/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 0 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 0 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +8.5/30.0
- ARV discount +7.5/15.0
- Schools +4.5/10.0
- Condition / age +4.2/5.0
- 1% rule +2.6/10.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Livability +2.5/5.0
- DSCR +2.3/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$207,999
24153 NW Tamarind Ln · Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL 34431
3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · SingleFamily
· 64 Days on market
Built 2026
10,454 sqft lot
Garage
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Under Construction. Welcome to this brand-new “Aleida” model by Bakan Homes, scheduled for completion by December 3rd, 2026. With 1,058 square feet of living space, this charming wood-frame home is designed to offer modern comforts at an accessible price point. Step inside to discover an open-concept living area featuring waterproof vinyl-plank flooring in the social spaces and plush carpet in the bedrooms. The stylish L-shaped kitchen features sleek quartz countertops and stainless-steel appliances, including a dishwasher. Enjoy the contemporary touch of LED pendant lighting in the dining area, adding a touch of elegance to the space.
Key facts
- 0.24 acre lot
- Garage
- Built 2026
Neighborhood map
Sold within
Property
Rental comp
Retail
Costco
Walmart
Transit
Schools
Stadiums
Fortune 500
· Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction.
The $207,999 list price is a builder
figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from
comparable previous sales — $216,367.
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-190 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (9.2% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (20.6% below list).
- Recommended offer: $165k (20.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Location & tenants
- Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
- Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
- Zoned schools: Romeo Elementary School (math 51% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,234 of 2,144 statewide, top 58%, 707 students, 76% FRL); Dunnellon Middle School (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D, #310 of 571 statewide, top 56%, 678 students, 68% FRL); Dunnellon High School (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,350 students, 63% FRL).
- Market conditions: 780 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer
$165,216
(20.6% below list)
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.76% ✗
- Cap rate
- 5.24%
- Cash-on-cash
- -3.76%
- DSCR
- 0.83
- GRM
- 10.9
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $216,367
- List price
- $207,999
- Delta
- -3.87%
- Verdict
- FAIR
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24294 NW Tamarind Ln | 0.11mi | 3/2.0 | 1,003 (-5%) | 0mo | $210,000 | $209 | 86 |
| 24162 NW Hemlock Ave | 0.03mi | 3/2.0 | 1,003 (-5%) | 5mo | $200,000 | $199 | 86 |
| 24134 NW Tamarind Ln | 0.04mi | 3/2.0 | 1,003 (-5%) | 5mo | $207,000 | $206 | 85 |
| 24352 NW Hemlock Ave | 0.16mi | 3/2.0 | 1,129 (+7%) | 1mo | $214,900 | $190 | 81 |
| 24071 NW Aspen Ln | 0.41mi | 3/2.0 | 1,058 (0%) | 1mo | $208,400 | $197 | 80 |
| 24146 NW Foxglove Ln | 0.23mi | 3/2.0 | 1,003 (-5%) | 4mo | $200,000 | $199 | 77 |
| 24202 NW Aspen Ln | 0.36mi | 3/2.0 | 1,099 (+4%) | 2mo | $218,500 | $199 | 75 |
| 24477 NW Geranium Ave | 0.34mi | 3/2.0 | 1,003 (-5%) | 4mo | $209,995 | $209 | 72 |
| 24172 NW Aspen Ln | 0.36mi | 3/2.0 | 1,003 (-5%) | 7mo | $199,995 | $199 | 69 |
| 24370 NW Falcon Ave | 0.48mi | 3/2.0 | 1,013 (-4%) | 6mo | $218,000 | $215 | 65 |
| 284 SW Commodore Rd | 0.65mi | 3/2.0 | 1,003 (-5%) | 4mo | $200,000 | $199 | 58 |
| 55 SW Tree Top Rd | 0.74mi | 3/2.0 | 1,003 (-5%) | 6mo | $205,000 | $204 | 52 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
5-year hold
- IRR
- -22.6%
- Equity multiple
- 0.22×
- Total profit
- $-47,141
- Equity at exit
- $32,261
10-year hold
- IRR
- -16.8%
- Equity multiple
- 0.07×
- Total profit
- $-56,535
- Equity at exit
- $18,707
Cash invested: $60,583 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Balanced market
Market conditions
within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 11 active · 13 under contract
- Months of supply
- 4.1 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
- Median asking
- $229,000 ($194/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 123 d
- This list price
- 9% of active listings are priced below it
- ARV vs active asking
- +5.5% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 34431
- Home prices YoY
- -3.2%
- Active inventory
- 780
- Price-to-rent
- 10.5×
Monthly cashflow live
↻
- Estimated rent
- $1,652 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,135
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$270 /mo · $3,246/yr
- Insurance
- −$90
- HOA
- −$0
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$347
- Net cashflow
- $-190
Break-even live
Break-even rent
$1,893
Max offer price
$188,865
Occupancy floor
—
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-41 | -5% $-115 | +0% $-190 | +5% $-265 | +10% $-340 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-321 | -5% $-255 | +0% $-190 | +5% $-125 | +10% $-60 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-81 | -0.5pp $-135 | base $-190 | +0.5pp $-246 | +1.0pp $-303 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $54,092
- Closing costs
- $6,491
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 1 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24449 NW Falcon Ave Dunnellon, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1017 | $1,595 | $1.57 | 5d | 1 | 0.55mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Lot approximately 0.24 acres (70 x 150)Living area about 1,058 square feet (builder source); total building area about 1,378 square feetLot size reported as 0 to less than 1/4 acrePermit number BLDR-25-11-01098Zoning: R1
Exterior
- Parking
- DrivewayAttached garage (1 car)
- Utilities
- Well waterSeptic tankElectricity connectedWater connected
- Home design
- Single-family residenceOne levelSouth-facingUnder construction (projected completion Aug 21, 2026)
- Construction
- New constructionVinyl siding with frame constructionShingle roofSlab foundationBuilder: Bakan Homes LLC (model: Aleida)
- Exterior features
- Sliding doorsPaved road access
Interior
- Kitchen
- DishwasherMicrowaveRangeRefrigerator
- Bedrooms
- 3 bedrooms
- Flooring
- CarpetVinyl
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathrooms
- Heating & cooling
- Electric heatingCentral air conditioning
- Interior features
- Vaulted ceilingsDining areaThermostat
- Laundry & utility
- Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups
Listing history 50 events
-
2026-09-25days on market $207,999 Active 64 DOM
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2026-09-24days on market $207,999 Active 63 DOM
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2026-09-24days on market $207,999 Active 62 DOM
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2026-09-22days on market $207,999 Active 61 DOM
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2026-07-31days on market $207,999 Active 60 DOM
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2026-07-30days on market $207,999 Active 59 DOM
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2026-07-29days on market $207,999 Active 58 DOM
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2026-07-27days on market $207,999 Active 56 DOM
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2026-07-25days on market $207,999 Active 54 DOM
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2026-07-23days on market $207,999 Active 52 DOM
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2026-07-22days on market $207,999 Active 51 DOM
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2026-07-21days on market $207,999 Active 50 DOM
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2026-07-18days on market $207,999 Active 47 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $207,999 Active 45 DOM
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2026-07-16days on market $207,999 Active 44 DOM
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2026-07-14days on market $207,999 Active 43 DOM
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2026-07-13days on market $207,999 Active 42 DOM
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2026-07-12days on market $207,999 Active 41 DOM
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2026-07-11days on market $207,999 Active 40 DOM
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2026-07-10days on market $207,999 Active 39 DOM
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2026-07-09days on market $207,999 Active 38 DOM
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2026-07-08days on market $207,999 Active 37 DOM
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2026-07-07days on market $207,999 Active 36 DOM
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2026-07-06days on market $207,999 Active 35 DOM
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2026-07-05days on market $207,999 Active 34 DOM
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2026-07-04days on market $207,999 Active 33 DOM
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2026-07-03days on market $207,999 Active 32 DOM
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2026-07-02days on market $207,999 Active 31 DOM
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2026-07-01days on market $207,999 Active 30 DOM
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2026-06-30days on market $207,999 Active 29 DOM
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2026-06-29days on market $207,999 Active 28 DOM
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2026-06-28days on market $207,999 Active 27 DOM
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2026-06-28days on market $207,999 Active 26 DOM
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2026-06-27days on market $207,999 Active 25 DOM
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2026-06-25days on market $207,999 Active 23 DOM
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2026-06-23days on market $207,999 Active 21 DOM
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2026-06-21days on market $207,999 Active 20 DOM
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2026-06-18days on market $207,999 Active 17 DOM
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2026-06-17days on market $207,999 Active 16 DOM
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2026-06-16days on market $207,999 Active 15 DOM
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2026-06-15days on market $207,999 Active 14 DOM
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2026-06-14days on market $207,999 Active 12 DOM
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2026-06-13days on market $207,999 Active 11 DOM
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2026-06-10days on market $207,999 Active 9 DOM
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2026-06-09days on market $207,999 Active 8 DOM
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2026-06-08days on market $207,999 Active 7 DOM
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2026-06-07days on market $207,999 Active 6 DOM
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2026-06-03days on market $207,999 Active 2 DOM
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2026-06-02remarks 687-char remark
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2026-06-02$207,999 Active 1 DOM
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $19,826
- − Mortgage interest
- −$12,120
- − Property taxes
- −$3,246
- − Insurance
- −$1,082
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,586
- − Management
- −$1,586
- − Depreciation
- −$6,294
- Taxable loss
- −$6,088
combined federal + state — saved on this device
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$1,461
- After-tax cash flow
- $-820/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
85/100
None rehab
This brand-new home is move-in ready with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. Minor updates to the exterior and interior can further enhance its value.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
- Both Landscaping the front yard — A well-maintained front yard improves curb appeal and adds value. ↑
- Both Installing a smart home system — Modern technology can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
- Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — High-end appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
- Both Adding a smart thermostat — Energy-efficient systems can lower utility costs and attract eco-conscious buyers and renters. ↑
F
Composite school gradezoned avg 46/100
Zoned Schools
Elementary
Romeo Elementary School
D-
FL #1,234/2,144
Nat'l #15,585/41,679
Middle
Dunnellon Middle School
D
FL #310/571
Nat'l #4,622/14,009
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Marion
- NCES district ID
- 1201260
- Math proficiency
- 42% ▼ -7.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 43% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $40,015
- Composite
- 35.61/100
- National rank
- #4890
- State rank
- #61 of 73 in FL
Livability — Rainbow Lakes Estates
No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Rainbow Lakes Estates, FL
- County
- Marion County · 365,905 people
- Metro
- Ocala, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 9,785
- Household income
- $56,534
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 4% of renters
Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 365,905 people
- By 2030
- 376,768 · +3.0%
- By 2040
- 396,555 · +8.4%
- By 2050
- 412,723 · +12.8%
- By 2075
- 446,090 · +21.9%
- By 2100
- 436,193 · +19.2%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (87%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 87% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Asian 1%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 1%
- Common ancestry
- Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
- Foreign-born
- 4% · Canada, Vietnam
- Languages at home
- 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1% Vietnamese 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Marion
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -11.42%
- Current HPI
- 343.1464
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- Ocala, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
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| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
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| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
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| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
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| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-06-01 Listed $207,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…