Sherman Plan · Seguin, TX 78155

$243,299

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,193 sqft · SingleFamily · 139 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story home features a luxurious owner's suite on the first level, offering a tranquil retreat with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A nearby open-concept layout encourages seamless transitions and multitasking between the kitchen, living and dining areas. On the second floor, a versatile game room provides a convenient shared living area near three additional bedrooms.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 138 days

🏗️ New construction. The $243,299 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $282,792.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $243k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-313 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (2.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.6% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Seguin ISD (town): math 26% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #663 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oralia R Rodriguez El (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 475 students, 83% FRL); Briesemeister Middle (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 725 students, 77% FRL); Seguin H S (math 24% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,101 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1833 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 29d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,738 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.75%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $282,792
• List price: $243,299
• Delta: -14.32%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
724 Canyon Run	0.24mi	4/2.0	2,162 (-1%)	4mo	$233,999	$108	81
3552 Canyon Rdg	0.32mi	4/2.0	2,162 (-1%)	1mo	$226,999	$105	80
736 Canyon Vw	0.31mi	4/2.0	2,162 (-1%)	2mo	$237,999	$110	79
3564 Canyon Rdg	0.35mi	4/2.0	2,162 (-1%)	4mo	$250,999	$116	76
3576 Canyon Rdg	0.37mi	4/2.0	2,162 (-1%)	4mo	$222,999	$103	75
3548 Canyon Rdg	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,922 (-12%)	4mo	$221,999	$116	62
3565 Sky Pl	0.35mi	4/2.5	1,922 (-12%)	2mo	$214,999	$112	61
721 Canyon Run	0.21mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-14%)	9mo	$215,999	$115	59
3557 Canyon Rdg	0.33mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-14%)	4mo	$213,999	$114	58
737 Canyon Run	0.24mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-14%)	9mo	$217,999	$116	58
732 Canyon Vw	0.32mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-14%)	7mo	$221,999	$118	56
3573 Canyon Rdg	0.36mi	4/2.5	1,885 (-14%)	6mo	$223,999	$119	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-67,728
• Equity at exit: $42,165

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-92,534
• Equity at exit: $24,451

Cash invested: $79,182 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 20 active · 18 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.0 mo (20%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $224,299 ($121/sqft)
• Median days on market: 46 d
• This list price: 90% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +6.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1833
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,077 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,483
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$353 /mo · $4,242/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,474

Max offer price $237,474

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-118	-5% $-215	+0% $-313	+5% $-411	+10% $-509
Rent	-10% $-477	-5% $-395	+0% $-313	+5% $-231	+10% $-149
Rate	-1.0pp $-171	-0.5pp $-241	base $-313	+0.5pp $-386	+1.0pp $-461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,698
• Closing costs: $8,484
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3473 Canyon Rdg Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,795	$1.23	29d	1	0.19mi
3557 Canyon Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1885	$1,850	$0.98	0d	1	0.34mi
3572 Canyon Rdg Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1676	$1,700	$1.01	93d	1	0.38mi
1015 Reiley Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	3.0	1638	$2,500	$1.53	4d	1	0.76mi
1015 Reiley Rd Seguin, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$2,495	$1.52	70d	1	0.76mi
358 Lake Placid Dr Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1803	$2,800	$1.55	4d	1	1.46mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $237,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan (Sherman)Single-family property (Plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 3400 Canyon Rdg, Seguin, TX 78155

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (2,193 finished living area)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $243,299 Active 139 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $243,299 Active 138 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   pricedays on market $243,299 Active 137 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $242,299 Active 136 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $242,299 Active 135 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $242,299 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $242,299 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $242,299 Active 132 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $242,299 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $242,299 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $242,299 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $242,299 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $242,299 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $242,299 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-09-06
    price $242,299 Active 120 DOM
16. 2026-09-05
    days on market $239,299 Active 120 DOM
17. 2026-09-04
    days on market $239,299 Active 119 DOM
18. 2026-09-03
    days on market $239,299 Active 118 DOM
19. 2026-08-31
    pricedays on market $239,299 Active 115 DOM
20. 2026-08-30
    days on market $237,299 Active 114 DOM
21. 2026-08-29
    days on market $237,299 Active 113 DOM
22. 2026-08-28
    days on market $237,299 Active 112 DOM
23. 2026-08-27
    days on market $237,299 Active 111 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $237,299 Active 109 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $237,299 Active 108 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $237,299 Active 107 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $237,299 Active 106 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $237,299 Active 105 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $237,299 Active 104 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $237,299 Active 103 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $237,299 Active 102 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $237,299 Active 101 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $237,299 Active 100 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $237,299 Active 99 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $237,299 Active 98 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $237,299 Active 97 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $237,299 Active 95 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $237,299 Active 94 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $237,299 Active 93 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    days on market $237,299 Active 92 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $237,299 Active 90 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $237,299 Active 89 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $237,299 Active 88 DOM
44. 2026-08-03
    days on market $237,299 Active 87 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $237,299 Active 84 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $237,299 Active 83 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    pricedays on market $237,299 Active 82 DOM
48. 2026-07-28
    days on market $236,999 Active 81 DOM
49. 2026-07-26
    days on market $236,999 Active 79 DOM
50. 2026-07-24
    days on market $236,999 Active 77 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,929
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,841
• − Property taxes: −$4,242
• − Insurance: −$1,414
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,994
• − Management: −$1,994
• − Depreciation: −$8,227
• Taxable loss: −$8,783
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,108
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,650/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a luxurious owner's suite. It offers a good return on investment with potential for further updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Modernizes the bathrooms and improves aesthetics. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 27/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oralia R Rodriguez El F TX #2,668/4,322 Nat'l #27,846/41,679 Middle Briesemeister Middle F TX #1,445/1,662 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High Seguin H S F TX #1,011/1,632 Nat'l #10,191/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seguin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839690
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,210
• Composite: 24.17/100
• National rank: #7738
• State rank: #663 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 196,854 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 17% of renters

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Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $237,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: New construction plan (Sherman)Single-family property (Plan)
• Exterior features: Address: 3400 Canyon Rdg, Seguin, TX 78155

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Open living area (2,193 finished living area)