17506 W Van Buren St #524 · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$165,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured · 118 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $168k · at est. ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOTIVATED SELLER! Welcome to Cotton Lane Resort, a vibrant 55+ community in Goodyear! Situated on a corner lot, this 2 bed, 2 bath 2025 double-wide offers a cozy, simple design ideal for those who live actively but want an easy place to retreat and recharge. Enjoy single-level living with no interior steps, laminate flooring, recessed canned lighting throughout, and a bright, functional layout. Built with R-40 roof insulation for excellent energy efficiency, this home was designed for comfort. Indoor laundry and a covered two-car carport add everyday convenience. With resort amenities and typically more affordable living than many comparable parks, this is active adult living made simple.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions: West on Van Buren to Cotton Lane Resort on the right, enter park and take first left on Sue Ave. The home is at the very end on the right.
• HOA & community: Land lease (monthly); Land lease amount $511 per month; No association fees included; Community amenities include pool, community spa (heated), golf, pickleball, tennis courts, community media room, coin-op laundry, biking/walking paths, and fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 carport spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer; 220 volts in kitchen (electric)
• Home design: Manufactured/mobile home; Leasehold ownership
• Construction: Wood frame with wood siding; Blown cellulose insulation; Composition roof; Building area reported by owner
• Exterior features: Corner lot with desert front and gravel/stone front; Asphalt road access; No fencing; Desert and mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: 220-volt outlet in kitchen; Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Central air; Ceiling fans; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; No interior steps; Master bedroom with full bath; Low-emissivity dual-pane vinyl-frame windows; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $166k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $166k).
• Recommended offer: $151k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.0% in Goodyear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Agua Fria Union High School District (4289) (suburban): math 24% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #99 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1088 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($151k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,969 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.53%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $168,000
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17506 W Van Buren St #494	0.00mi	2/2.0	946 (-2%)	0mo	$170,000	$180	98
17506 W Van Buren St #511	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,032 (+8%)	0mo	$165,000	$160	87
17506 W Van Buren St #181	0.30mi	2/2.0	968 (+1%)	6mo	$160,000	$165	79
17506 W Van Buren St #210	0.30mi	2/2.0	968 (+1%)	8mo	$167,500	$173	78
17506 W Van Buren St #209	0.30mi	2/2.0	968 (+1%)	10mo	$175,000	$181	76
17506 W Van Buren St #183	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	980 (+2%)	10mo	$158,000	$161	69
17506 W Van Buren St #268	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+15%)	1mo	$186,250	$169	67
17506 W Van Buren St #450	0.30mi	2/2.0	996 (+4%)	20mo	$185,000	$186	63
17506 W Van Buren St #533	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,032 (+8%)	17mo	$195,000	$189	59
17506 W Van Buren St #116	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,048 (+9%)	15mo	$202,000	$193	58
17506 W Van Buren St #388	0.30mi	2/2.0	880 (-8%)	18mo	$154,000	$175	57
17506 W Van Buren St #389	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,066 (+11%)	12mo	$138,500	$130	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-20,142
• Equity at exit: $24,736

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-22,049
• Equity at exit: $14,344

Cash invested: $46,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1088
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,771 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$870
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$207 /mo · $2,488/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,535

Max offer price $165,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,475
• Closing costs: $4,977
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
195 N 173rd Ave Goodyear, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	822	$1,785	$2.17	1d	12	0.28mi
25 N 173rd Ave Goodyear, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	818	$1,815	$2.22	1d	29	0.47mi
16985 W Van Buren St Goodyear, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$1,426	$1.50	1d	57	0.53mi
16965 W Van Buren St Goodyear, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1034	$1,392	$1.35	1d	23	0.56mi
356 N 169th Ave Unit 356 Goodyear, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,950	$1.81	1d	1	0.65mi
356 N 169th Ave Goodyear, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$2,250	$2.09	1d	1	0.65mi
575 S Cotton Ln Goodyear, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$1,819	$1.74	1d	32	0.82mi
1050 S 173rd Ave Goodyear, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1007	$1,712	$1.70	1d	11	1.03mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,900 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,900 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,900 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,900 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    price $165,900
15. 2026-03-25
    price $169,900
16. 2026-03-06
    price $179,000
17. 2026-02-20
    listed $189,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥113°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,254
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,293
• − Property taxes: −$2,488
• − Insurance: −$1,627
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,700
• − Management: −$1,700
• − Depreciation: −$4,826
• Taxable loss: −$381
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$92
• After-tax cash flow: $2,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Agua Fria Union High School District (4289)
• NCES district ID: 0400450
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $64,107
• Composite: 27.92/100
• National rank: #6865
• State rank: #99 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $165,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $179,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $189,000 ARMLS