3616 Ambersweet Xing · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34219

$347,298

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 5,040 sqft lot Est $391k · 11% under $284/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MOVE-IN READY!! The first floor of this new two-story home is host to an open-concept layout that combines the kitchen with the living and dining areas, and an outdoor patio is easily reached off the main living space. Upstairs, five bedrooms surround a versatile loft, including the luxe owner’s suite, complete with a generous walk-in closet and en-suite bathroom. For those who call Rye Ranch® home, this community puts you close to countless shopping, dining and entertainment options. Embark on adventures like never before at amazing parks and recreational sites just nearby. Right across the street are highly rated schools, perfect for growing families. Prices, dimensions and feat

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Outdoor patio

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR PATIO
• VERSATILE LOFT
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• PARKS RECREATIONAL SITES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listed as a spec home; List price available (Active status)

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces, including a 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (Edison plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2112; Address: 3616 Ambersweet Xing, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Spec-built new construction (Edison plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $347k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-321/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $336k (3.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $336k (3.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gene Witt Elementary School (math 84% / reading 82%, grade A+, #65 of 2,144 statewide, top 3%, 689 students, 24% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2194 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $336,372 (3.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.33%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $390,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3813 Ambersweet Xing	0.16mi	5/2.5	2,112 (0%)	1mo	$345,000	$163	92
3427 Night Star Ter	0.23mi	5/2.5	2,112 (0%)	8mo	$379,000	$179	83
17827 Garden Grove Way	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,032 (-4%)	0mo	$365,000	$180	79
3540 Night Star Ter	0.13mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,032 (-4%)	5mo	$375,000	$185	76
3307 Pineberry Xing	0.14mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,244 (+6%)	2mo	$416,597	$186	75
3123 Pineberry Xing	0.25mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,032 (-4%)	1mo	$425,000	$209	74
3325 Night Star Ter	0.23mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,032 (-4%)	4mo	$450,000	$221	73
3332 Night Star Ter	0.21mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,244 (+6%)	3mo	$420,000	$187	70
17837 Haden Cv	0.18mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,847 (-12%)	1mo	$326,998	$177	65
17834 Cane Patch Ct	0.27mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,244 (+6%)	7mo	$479,999	$214	64
3805 Ambersweet Xing	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,874 (-11%)	8mo	$325,000	$173	63
3614 Night Star Ter	0.10mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,397 (+14%)	4mo	$435,000	$181	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-67,614
• Equity at exit: $51,783

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-98,253
• Equity at exit: $30,028

Cash invested: $97,243 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2194
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,364 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,821
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,209/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$284
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$706
• Net cashflow: $-27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,398

Max offer price $343,426

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $213	-5% $93	+0% $-27	+5% $-147	+10% $-267
Rent	-10% $-292	-5% $-160	+0% $-27	+5% $106	+10% $239
Rate	-1.0pp $148	-0.5pp $62	base $-27	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,824
• Closing costs: $10,419
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16457 Woodside Gln Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2748	$3,800	$1.38	25d	1	1.29mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $284 · $3,408/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $347,298 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $347,298 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $347,298 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $347,298 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $347,298 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $347,298 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $347,298 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $347,298 Active 2 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 689-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    days on marketlisting id $347,298 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $347,298 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $347,298 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $347,298 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $347,298 Active 62 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $347,298 Active 61 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,454
• − Property taxes: −$5,209
• − Insurance: −$1,736
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,229
• − Management: −$3,229
• − HOA: −$3,408
• − Depreciation: −$10,103
• Taxable loss: −$6,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,441
• After-tax cash flow: $1,120/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, modern home with an open-concept floor plan and ample natural light is ready for immediate occupancy. Potential buyers will appreciate the curb appeal and the home's location in a desirable community.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace kitchen faucet — Modernizes kitchen
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves energy efficiency and convenience

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace kitchen faucet — Modernizes kitchen ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Improves energy efficiency and convenience ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 219.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B