9714 Sumerlin St · Houston, TX 77075

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,149 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 19 Days on market

Built 1965 6,930 sqft lot $144/sqft · 15% below area Est $195k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Cash flow +8.4/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,930 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1965

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway
• Security: Leased security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Slab foundation; Built in 1965
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard (partial backyard fencing); Private yard; Paved driveway

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (including primary bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Laminate counters; Primary bedroom with private bath; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-147 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $139k (15.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (15.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Pasadena ISD (suburban): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #612 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Morris Middle (math 32% / reading 33%, grade F, #947 of 1,662 statewide, top 58%, 703 students, 86% FRL); The Summit (High School) (reading 24%, 148 students, 89% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 71% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 146 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,999 (15.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.82%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,224
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -15.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9714 Sumerlin St	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,149 (0%)	0mo	$165,000	$144	98
5 Ramey Cir	0.10mi	3/1.5	1,296 (+13%)	2mo	$225,000	$174	70
9602 Sumerlin St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,305 (+14%)	6mo	$190,000	$146	66
9426 Kingsvalley St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,239 (+8%)	2mo	$230,000	$186	62
10327 Southport Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,125 (-2%)	2mo	$225,000	$200	61
10906 Stover St	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,272 (+11%)	4mo	$129,900	$102	61
10821 Stover St	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,300 (+13%)	9mo	$175,000	$135	56
10810 Eddyrock St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+4%)	3mo	$249,000	$208	53
10206 Buena Park Dr	0.57mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,224 (+6%)	3mo	$189,900	$155	51
9450 Fuqua St	0.34mi	3/1.5	994 (-14%)	10mo	$222,000	$223	51
9931 Southport Dr	0.61mi	3/1.5	1,292 (+12%)	8mo	$215,000	$166	42
9326 Valley Tree Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+13%)	8mo	$249,980	$192	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-37,206
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-48,885
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77075

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,479 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$382 /mo · $4,582/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $-147

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,666

Max offer price $138,999

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10350 Stover St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,625	$1.17	44d	1	0.28mi
9462 Fuqua St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,750	$1.24	44d	1	0.29mi
10280 Windmill Lakes Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$1,410	$1.81	2d	9	0.38mi
10187 Windmill Lakes Blvd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$945	$1.02	44d	1	0.38mi
10121 Windmill Lakes Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	814	$1,491	$1.83	20d	17	0.51mi
10121 Windmill Lakes Blvd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	914	$1,445	$1.58	11d	1	0.51mi
10121 Windmill Lakes Blvd Unit 2162 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	914	$1,410	$1.54	5d	1	0.54mi
10121 Windmill Lakes Blvd Unit 2165 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	914	$1,402	$1.53	3d	1	0.54mi
10121 Windmill Lakes Blvd Unit 10178 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1009	$1,260	$1.25	22d	1	0.54mi
10121 Windmill Lakes Blvd Unit 10158 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	914	$1,434	$1.57	10d	1	0.54mi
9150 Blackhawk Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,550	$1.86	2d	1	0.63mi
9988 Windmill Lakes Blvd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	859	$1,290	$1.50	3d	15	0.69mi
9988 Windmill Lakes Blvd Unit 10045 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,125	$1.07	17d	1	0.69mi
9994 Windmill Lakes Blvd Unit 817 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,280	$1.22	44d	1	0.73mi
9750 Windwater Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	856	$1,662	$1.94	1d	13	0.77mi
9763 Windwater Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	916	$1,149	$1.25	44d	1	0.82mi
9757 Windwater Dr Unit 9814 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,247	$1.23	3d	1	0.83mi
9757 Windwater Dr Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1017	$1,290	$1.27	11d	1	0.84mi
11150 Beamer Rd Apt 422 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	904	$1,024	$1.13	11d	1	0.93mi
11156 Beamer Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,170	$1.16	44d	1	0.95mi
10931 Beamer Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,125	$1.11	44d	1	0.97mi
10931 Beamer Rd Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,125	$1.11	20d	1	0.97mi
10100 Almeda-Genoa Rd Unit 10157 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,467	$1.39	44d	1	1.00mi
10100 Almeda-Genoa Rd Unit 3165 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,946	$1.58	3d	1	1.00mi
10100 Almeda-Genoa Rd Unit 10133 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,978	$1.61	10d	1	1.00mi
10100 Almeda-Genoa Rd Unit 2112 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,459	$1.39	3d	1	1.00mi
10100 Almeda-Genoa Rd Unit 10137 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,491	$1.42	10d	1	1.00mi
10100 Almeda-Genoa Rd Unit 2047 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,502	$1.43	11d	1	1.03mi
9815 Almeda-Genoa Rd Unit 9842 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	956	$1,471	$1.54	3d	1	1.05mi
9815 Almeda-Genoa Rd Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,773	$1.37	13d	1	1.05mi
9815 Almeda-Genoa Rd Unit 9848 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1290	$1,781	$1.38	3d	1	1.05mi
10925 Beamer Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	868	$1,280	$1.47	3d	25	1.05mi
10010 Sagecanyon Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$2,000	$1.45	44d	1	1.05mi
10700 Fuqua St Unit 421 Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	904	$1,027	$1.14	5d	1	1.05mi
10601 Sabo Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	814	$1,359	$1.67	24d	5	1.10mi
10601 Sabo Rd Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	814	$1,359	$1.67	3d	11	1.10mi
10418 Sagemeadow Ln Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1429	$1,950	$1.36	44d	1	1.13mi
10701 Sabo Rd Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	785	$1,155	$1.47	1d	29	1.18mi
10950 Tanner Park Ct Houston, TX	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	998	$1,150	$1.15	3d	16	1.18mi
11144 Fuqua St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$1,959	$1.84	10d	24	1.41mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-04
   status $165,000 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $165,000 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $165,000 Active Under Contract 16 DOM
6. 2026-05-15
   listed $165,000 Active 466-char remark
7. 2026-05-14
   historical $165,000 466-char remark
8. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,582 · $382/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,582 · $382/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$4,582
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,420
• − Management: −$1,420
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$4,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,089
• After-tax cash flow: $-677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasadena ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $45,163
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7275
• State rank: #612 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,626
• Household income: $69,191
• Rent vs Own: 39.6% rent · 60.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1573.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 71% Two or more races 34% Black 14% White 7% Asian 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 60% Vietnamese 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.33%
• Current HPI: 260.3733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.17%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Coming Soon $165,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,582 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.