140 Pawnee Ave · Weigelstown, PA 17315

$141,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · Land · 52 Days on market

Built 2024 $131/sqft · 55% above area ↓ 14% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Do Not miss this 2 BR 2 full bath newly constructed double wide home in Dover school district In Thunderbird Terrace MHP . Features of this home are a large living room, Beautiful modern kitchen with island & spacious dining area. The master bedroom has a master bath stand up shower & a walk in closet. The home has a 2nd Bedroom and 2nd full bath on the main floor. This brand new home with all new appliances and an inviting porch can be yours, schedule your showing today. Lot rent includes Trash 580 per month * * For a limited time Free lot rent for 3 Months!

Key facts

• Newly constructed
• Walk in closet
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• NEWLY CONSTRUCTED
• MODERN KITCHEN
• WALK IN CLOSET
• INVITING PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $142k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $274 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $142k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.4% in Weigelstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#527 in PA, #4,886 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dover Area SD (suburban): math 39% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #232 of 539 in PA (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 170 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $981 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,643 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.28%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $91,761
• List price: $141,900
• Delta: 54.64%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-5,518
• Equity at exit: $21,158

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $17,765
• Equity at exit: $12,269

Cash invested: $39,732 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17315

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$744
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$177 /mo · $2,128/yr
• Insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $274

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,241

Max offer price $141,900

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $372	-5% $323	+0% $274	+5% $225	+10% $176
Rent	-10% $149	-5% $211	+0% $274	+5% $337	+10% $399
Rate	-1.0pp $345	-0.5pp $310	base $274	+0.5pp $237	+1.0pp $200

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,475
• Closing costs: $4,257
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3812 Fox Chase Dr Dover, PA	2.0	1.0	837	$1,295	$1.55	14d	1	0.34mi
3712 Castle Dr Dover, PA	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,895	$1.31	44d	1	1.16mi
2670 Springhouse Bnd Dover, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	991	$1,765	$1.78	14d	17	1.26mi
3807 Castle Dr Dover, PA	3.0	2.5	1402	$2,150	$1.53	21d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-14
   days on market $141,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $141,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $141,900 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $141,900 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $141,900 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $141,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $141,900 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $141,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $141,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $141,900 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $141,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-04-22
    listed $141,900 Active 582-char remark

    Show marketing remark (582 chars)

    Do Not miss this 2 BR 2 full bath newly constructed double wide home in Dover school district In Thunderbird Terrace MHP . Features of this home are a large living room, Beautiful modern kitchen with island & spacious dining area. The master bedroom has a master bath stand up shower & a walk in closet. The home has a 2nd Bedroom and 2nd full bath on the main floor. This brand new home with all new appliances and an inviting porch can be yours, schedule your showing today. Lot rent includes Trash 580 per month * * For a limited time Free lot rent for 3 Months!

13. 2026-04-19
    historical
14. 2026-03-19
    price $141,900
15. 2026-01-19
    price $146,900
16. 2025-11-02
    price $154,900
17. 2025-10-19
    listed $159,900 Active
18. 2025-10-01
    historical
19. 2025-06-28
    price $159,900
20. 2025-05-27
    listed $164,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,949
• − Property taxes: −$2,128
• − Insurance: −$710
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − Depreciation: −$4,128
• Taxable income: $1,094
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$263
• After-tax cash flow: $3,026/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dover Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4207680
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $56,418
• Composite: 40.44/100
• National rank: #3725
• State rank: #232 of 539 in PA

Livability — Weigelstown

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #4886

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weigelstown, PA
• Population (ZIP): 26,434

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.65%
• Current HPI: 247.2403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $141,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-19 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $141,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $146,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-02 Price Changed $154,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-19 Listed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-28 Price Changed $159,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-05-27 Listed $164,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2021): $34 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.