7866 Mulberry Rd · Chesterland, OH 44026

$226,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,494 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1960 1.23 ac lot Est $287k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $226k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $226k).
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.9% in Chesterland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#58 in OH, #835 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• West Geauga Local (rural): math 83% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #28 of 656 in OH (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 220 units permitted in Geauga County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Geauga County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $226,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.14%
• DSCR: 1.90
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $286,848
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8075 Mulberry Rd	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,590 (+6%)	3mo	$305,000	$192	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $31,110
• Equity at exit: $33,697

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $114,571
• Equity at exit: $19,540

Cash invested: $63,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44026

• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,412 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,185
• Tax from tax record: −$354 /mo · $4,249/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$716
• Net cashflow: $1,062

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,068

Max offer price $226,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,500
• Closing costs: $6,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-29
   listed $226,000
2. 2026-05-29
   historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,249 · $354/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,249 · $354/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,942
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,660
• − Property taxes: −$4,249
• − Insurance: −$1,130
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,275
• − Management: −$3,275
• − Depreciation: −$6,575
• Taxable income: $9,779
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,347
• After-tax cash flow: $10,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Geauga Local
• NCES district ID: 3904722
• Math proficiency: 83% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 86% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,759
• Composite: 73.94/100
• National rank: #166
• State rank: #28 of 656 in OH

Livability — Chesterland

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #835

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Geauga · 90,510 people
• City population: 10,722
• Metro: Cleveland, OH
• Population (ZIP): 10,722
• Household income: $106,740
• Rent vs Own: 10.3% rent · 89.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 11.9

Population outlook (Geauga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,919 people
• By 2030: 94,804 · -0.1%
• By 2040: 92,641 · -2.4%
• By 2050: 88,198 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 79,080 · -16.7%
• By 2100: 60,856 · -35.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Korean 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Geauga

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.5% · R 61.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.8pp toward R · 2008: -15.4pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+23.1 2016: R+25.5 2012: R+21.6 2008: R+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -121.61%
• Current HPI: 200.0173
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-29 Listed $226,000 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,249 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.