239 Sunset Dr · Holley, NY 14470

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1987 4,356 sqft lot $45/sqft · at area comps Est $52k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in Thomas Estate (Clarendon) Rte 31A, just a few minutes from Brockport (Shopping, Banking, Car Wash, Groceries and more! Come see this charming 3-bedroom 2 bath double wide manufactured home with a fresh new deck and accessibility ramp. Once an offer is accepted, park approval is required. Visit liveheronfalls.com

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1987
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease amount (listed): $713
• HOA & community: Land lease

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer available
• Home design: Double-wide mobile home; Single-story; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Rectangular lot; Private road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Accessible approach with ramp; Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $581 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $49k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.3% vs local median 4.4% in Holley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#705 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Holley Central School District (town): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #505 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 28 units permitted in Orleans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Orleans County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($49k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $49,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.89%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $52,333
• List price: $49,900
• Delta: -4.65%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 Sunset Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,120 (0%)	8mo	$69,900	$62	89
116 Trinity Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,022 (-9%)	8mo	$35,000	$34	69
951 Cobblestone Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-6%)	9mo	$91,500	$87	61
267 Sunset Dr	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-12%)	8mo	$50,000	$51	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $28,920
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $72,852
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14470

• Home prices YoY: -10.8%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $534/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $581

Break-even live

Break-even rent $414

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-05
   listed $49,900 Active 324-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $534 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $689 · $57/mo
• Expected delta: +$155/yr (+$13/mo · 28.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,791
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$534
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,103
• − Management: −$1,103
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $6,554
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,573
• After-tax cash flow: $5,398/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Holley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614610
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,177
• Composite: 35.13/100
• National rank: #5013
• State rank: #505 of 590 in NY

Livability — Holley

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #705
• US rank: #13281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,765

Population outlook (Orleans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,123 people
• By 2030: 37,648 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 34,432 · -12.0%
• By 2050: 31,487 · -19.5%
• By 2075: 26,544 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 22,251 · -43.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orleans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.8% · R 70.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.7pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+36.0 2016: R+43.4 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+18.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.80%
• Current HPI: 287.9167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $49,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+13.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $534 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.