1613 Arling Ave · Louisville, KY 40215

$95,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 572 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 1951 9,056 sqft lot Est $118k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Two bedroom starter home with carport.Lots is large, includes a nice size fenced yard.

Key facts

• 9,056 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1951

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family Cape Cod; 1 story
• Construction: Built in 1951; Wood frame with aluminum siding; Shingle roof; Poured concrete foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on the first floor)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (on the first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating
• Interior features: 5 total rooms; Basement (cellar)
• Laundry & utility: No first-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $168 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.0% in Louisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#333 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety D+, schools D-.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $95k implies a 239% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,150 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.56%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,404
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1524 Shingo Ave	0.09mi	2/1.0	575 (+0%)	2mo	$119,000	$207	94
1711 Bicknell Ave	0.69mi	1/1.0 (-1)	560 (-2%)	24mo	$70,000	$125	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-2,507
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $21,069
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40215

• Home prices YoY: -34.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,001 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,028/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$210
• Net cashflow: $168

Break-even live

Break-even rent $789

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 Lawson Ln Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	600	$785	$1.31	24d	5	0.25mi
4122 Craig Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	705	$1,051	$1.49	12d	1	0.62mi
1022 Stanley Ave Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	21d	1	1.13mi
4704 Southern Pkwy Unit A1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	750	$775	$1.03	17d	1	1.14mi
4626 Southern Pkwy Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	809	$895	$1.11	15d	3	1.27mi
4619 Southern Pkwy Unit 3 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$975	$1.39	2d	1	1.33mi
1105 Beecher St Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	708	$1,150	$1.62	16d	1	1.33mi
5011 Southside Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$975	$1.22	2d	9	1.33mi
5011 Southside Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,067	$1.33	24d	1	1.33mi
518 Iroquois Garden Dr Louisville, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$999	$1.18	3d	27	1.42mi
4501 S 6th St #82 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	538	$775	$1.44	17d	1	1.48mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0	684	$1,108	$1.62	24d	2	1.50mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Unit 3522-1 Louisville, KY	1.0	1.0	482	$865	$1.79	3d	1	1.50mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	734	$1,050	$1.43	3d	1	1.50mi
3524 Georgetown Cir Louisville, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0	684	$1,108	$1.62	15d	4	1.50mi

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-11
    listed $95,000 Active
15. 2025-02-10
    historical $895
16. 2025-01-16
    price $895
17. 2024-12-25
    listed $950
18. 2019-10-03
    soldstatus $28,000 Closed 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    Two bedroom starter home with carport.Lots is large, includes a nice size fenced yard.

19. 2019-09-23
    status Pending 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    Two bedroom starter home with carport.Lots is large, includes a nice size fenced yard.

20. 2019-09-19
    listed $32,500 Active 86-char remark

    Show marketing remark (86 chars)

    Two bedroom starter home with carport.Lots is large, includes a nice size fenced yard.

21. 2013-05-24
    soldstatus $18,000
22. 2013-02-15
    listed $21,900
23. 2012-11-12
    historical
24. 2012-05-12
    listed $27,000
25. 2010-03-25
    historical
26. 2009-09-25
    listed $65,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,028 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,028 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$1,028
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$961
• − Management: −$961
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $504
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$121
• After-tax cash flow: $1,889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #333
• US rank: #15887

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville, KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 769,292
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 20,532
• Household income: $43,725
• Rent vs Own: 56.4% rent · 43.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 997.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Black 33% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Romanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.35%
• Current HPI: 227.8248
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.16%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+44.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $95,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-02-10 Rental Removed $895 Avail
• 2025-01-16 Price Changed $895 Avail
• 2024-12-25 Listed for Rent $950 Avail
• 2019-10-03 Sold (MLS) $28,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-09-23 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-09-19 Listed $32,500 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-05-24 Sold (MLS) $18,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2013-02-15 Listed $21,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2012-11-12 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2012-05-12 Listed $27,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2010-03-25 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2009-09-25 Listed $65,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+18.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,028 · +142.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.