10117 Sakura Dr Unit F · Sappington, MO 63128

$125,999

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · Condo public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1967 $128/sqft · 6% below area Est $134k · 6% under $333/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the highly desirable Lindbergh School District, this spacious 3-bedroom, 1-bath condo features new carpet and fresh paint throughout. The unit offers a separate dining area and a kitchen with abundant cabinet and counter space, including an electric stove—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom includes a private balcony and spacious closets. Additional highlights include a fully updated electrical panel, dedicated basement storage, and convenient building laundry located on the first floor. The community is well maintained by the HOA, which covers water, sewer, trash, landscaping, and snow removal. Enjoy community amenities such as a pool and clubhouse.

Key facts

• $333 HOA
• Community pool
• Built 1967

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $126k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $202 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $126k).
• Recommended offer: $111k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 4.3% in Sappington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#34 in MO, #3,057 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lindbergh Schools (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #38 of 324 in MO (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $871 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($111k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $109k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,879 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.11%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,126
• List price: $125,999
• Delta: -6.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-9,032
• Equity at exit: $18,787

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.08×
• Total profit: $2,837
• Equity at exit: $10,894

Cash invested: $35,280 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63128

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,770 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$661
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,005/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$333
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $202

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,515

Max offer price $125,999

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,500
• Closing costs: $3,780
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9920 Merito Dr Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	825	$1,005	$1.22	7d	4	0.50mi
10801 Edgecliffe Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	960	$1,850	$1.93	10d	1	0.70mi
11015 Golf Crest Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	864	$1,970	$2.28	21d	1	0.98mi
10934 Vargas Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	938	$1,849	$1.97	23d	1	1.01mi
12531 Old Tesson Rd St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	16d	1	1.01mi
4650 E Concord Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	962	$1,895	$1.97	1d	1	1.20mi
9854 Las Vegas Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1026	$2,100	$2.05	7d	1	1.25mi
11515 Gravois Rd Unit 11468-101 Sappington, MO	2.0	1.0	900	$1,175	$1.31	3d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $333 · $3,996/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrashelectriclandscapingsnow removalpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,999 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,999 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,999 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,999 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,999 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,999 Active 137 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,999 Active 136 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $125,999 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $134,900 Active 131 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 130 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 129 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-04-16
    price $134,900 705-char remark

    Show marketing remark (705 chars)

    Located in the highly desirable Lindbergh School District, this spacious 3-bedroom, 1-bath condo features new carpet and fresh paint throughout. The unit offers a separate dining area and a kitchen with abundant cabinet and counter space, including an electric stove—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom includes a private balcony and spacious closets. Additional highlights include a fully updated electrical panel, dedicated basement storage, and convenient building laundry located on the first floor. The community is well maintained by the HOA, which covers water, sewer, trash, landscaping, and snow removal. Enjoy community amenities such as a pool and clubhouse.

14. 2026-01-23
    listed $139,900 Active 705-char remark

    Show marketing remark (705 chars)

    Located in the highly desirable Lindbergh School District, this spacious 3-bedroom, 1-bath condo features new carpet and fresh paint throughout. The unit offers a separate dining area and a kitchen with abundant cabinet and counter space, including an electric stove—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom includes a private balcony and spacious closets. Additional highlights include a fully updated electrical panel, dedicated basement storage, and convenient building laundry located on the first floor. The community is well maintained by the HOA, which covers water, sewer, trash, landscaping, and snow removal. Enjoy community amenities such as a pool and clubhouse.

15. 2026-01-21
    historical $139,900 705-char remark

    Show marketing remark (705 chars)

    Located in the highly desirable Lindbergh School District, this spacious 3-bedroom, 1-bath condo features new carpet and fresh paint throughout. The unit offers a separate dining area and a kitchen with abundant cabinet and counter space, including an electric stove—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom includes a private balcony and spacious closets. Additional highlights include a fully updated electrical panel, dedicated basement storage, and convenient building laundry located on the first floor. The community is well maintained by the HOA, which covers water, sewer, trash, landscaping, and snow removal. Enjoy community amenities such as a pool and clubhouse.

16. 2025-11-11
    price $139,999
17. 2025-07-31
    price $145,000
18. 2025-06-03
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 2025-01-23
    historical
20. 2024-12-30
    price $139,900
21. 2024-09-15
    price $149,500
22. 2024-07-25
    price $159,500
23. 2024-07-23
    listed $159,000 Active
24. 2024-06-12
    historical
25. 2024-06-07
    price $169,900
26. 2024-05-02
    listed $179,900 Active
27. 2023-12-11
    soldstatus Closed
28. 2023-11-25
    status Pending
29. 2023-11-16
    price $135,000
30. 2023-11-06
    listed $140,000 Active
31. 2023-11-05
    historical $140,000
32. 2021-04-28
    soldstatus $109,000
33. 2021-04-26
    soldstatus Closed
34. 2021-03-12
    historical Active Under Contract
35. 2021-03-10
    listed $98,500 Active
36. 2017-09-19
    soldstatus $61,000
37. 2017-09-14
    status Pending
38. 2017-09-14
    soldstatus Closed
39. 2017-04-22
    historical Contingent (No Kickout)
40. 2017-03-30
    price $63,500
41. 2017-03-15
    listed $64,900 Active
42. 1990-10-01
    soldstatus
43. 1989-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,005 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,222 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$217/yr (+$18/mo · 21.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 78% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,235
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,058
• − Property taxes: −$1,005
• − Insurance: −$1,427
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,699
• − Management: −$1,699
• − HOA: −$3,996
• − Depreciation: −$3,665
• Taxable income: $686
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$165
• After-tax cash flow: $2,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lindbergh Schools
• NCES district ID: 2918690
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $66,145
• Composite: 42.62/100
• National rank: #3186
• State rank: #38 of 324 in MO

Livability — Sappington

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #34
• US rank: #3057

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sappington, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 30,540
• Household income: $92,359
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 5% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -228.34%
• Current HPI: 211.4603
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+107.9% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $134,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-23 Listed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Coming Soon $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Price Changed $139,999 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $145,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-03 Listed $150,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-23 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-30 Price Changed $139,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-15 Price Changed $149,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-25 Price Changed $159,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-23 Listed $159,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-12 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-07 Price Changed $169,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-02 Listed $179,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-11 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-25 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-16 Price Changed $135,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-06 Listed $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-11-05 Coming Soon $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-26 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-12 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-03-10 Listed $98,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-14 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-14 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-04-22 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-30 Price Changed $63,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-15 Listed $64,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1990-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-12-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,005 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.