10503 Red Shiner Run · San Antonio, TX 78224

$258,499

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · SingleFamily · 68 Days on market

Built 2026 4,791 sqft lot $140/sqft · at area comps Est $255k · at est. $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $258k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-317 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (17.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (26.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• Southwest ISD (rural): math 21% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #701 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Spicewood Park El (math 16% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 593 students, 93% FRL); Ronald E Mcnair Middle (math 27% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 748 students, 77% FRL); Southwest H S (math 17% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 2,152 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 275 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $190,223 (26.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.82%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.25%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $254,999
• List price: $258,499
• Delta: 1.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10715 Red Shiner Run	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,850 (0%)	1mo	$232,999	$126	92
10711 Red Shiner Run	0.15mi	4/2.5	1,885 (+2%)	1mo	$264,999	$141	87
10707 Red Shiner Run	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,676 (-9%)	1mo	$220,499	$132	77
10622 Red Shiner Run	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,015 (+9%)	0mo	$267,999	$133	76
10826 Apple Pie Rd	0.43mi	4/2.5	1,900 (+3%)	0mo	$312,851	$165	73
1435 Leticia Gln	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,795 (-3%)	0mo	$267,999	$149	65
1439 Leticia Gln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-10%)	1mo	$255,999	$154	52
10807 Bernal Cv	0.50mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-15%)	1mo	$248,999	$158	51
10843 Bernal Cv	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,575 (-15%)	1mo	$223,999	$142	50
1427 Althea Bnd	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-10%)	1mo	$240,999	$145	49
1419 Althea Bnd	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,657 (-10%)	1mo	$261,999	$158	49
10323 Liberty Grv	0.62mi	4/2.5	2,111 (+14%)	1mo	$306,255	$145	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.61×
• Total profit: $116,600
• Equity at exit: $232,876

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.86×
• Total profit: $351,787
• Equity at exit: $502,207

Cash invested: $72,380 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78224

• Home prices YoY: 12.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,902 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,356
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$323 /mo · $3,877/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-317

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,303

Max offer price $212,677

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-138	-5% $-227	+0% $-317	+5% $-406	+10% $-495
Rent	-10% $-467	-5% $-392	+0% $-317	+5% $-242	+10% $-166
Rate	-1.0pp $-186	-0.5pp $-251	base $-317	+0.5pp $-384	+1.0pp $-452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,625
• Closing costs: $7,755
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10523 Goose Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.13mi
10723 Goose Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.23mi
2026 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1383	$1,650	$1.19	6d	1	0.23mi
10710 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.23mi
10719 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1645	$1,640	$1.00	45d	1	0.26mi
2107 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,675	$0.94	45d	1	0.27mi
10723 Butterfly Pass San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1687	$1,675	$0.99	45d	1	0.27mi
10527 Hunters Pond San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1510	$1,395	$0.92	45d	1	0.27mi
2111 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,700	$0.89	45d	1	0.28mi
2115 Bigmouth Rod San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	45d	1	0.28mi
2222 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	25d	1	0.29mi
2226 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1777	$1,650	$0.93	25d	1	0.30mi
2230 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	25d	1	0.31mi
10811 Soupe CV San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$1,995	$0.92	4d	1	0.31mi
1347 Neria LOOP San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2173	$1,699	$0.78	45d	1	0.31mi
2235 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1847	$1,755	$0.95	45d	1	0.33mi
2242 Fishing Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1917	$1,785	$0.93	45d	1	0.34mi
11327 Clearmine San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1362	$1,650	$1.21	0d	2	0.38mi
10210 S Zarzamora St San Antonio, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0	1139	$1,894	$1.66	0d	1	0.40mi
10610 Apple Pie Rd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1272	$1,595	$1.25	25d	1	0.41mi
2307 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,750	$0.97	45d	1	0.43mi
10507 Padron Bnd San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	45d	1	0.44mi
2318 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,795	$1.00	25d	1	0.45mi
10611 Vesta Curv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,735	$1.07	6d	1	0.48mi
2330 Redlove Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,600	$1.13	6d	1	0.48mi
2335 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,550	$1.01	6d	1	0.49mi
10807 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,700	$1.08	18d	1	0.49mi
10622 Vesta Curv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,725	$1.06	6d	1	0.49mi
10815 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	25d	1	0.50mi
10823 Bernal Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	3d	1	0.50mi
2343 Applewhite Mdw San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1798	$1,795	$1.00	25d	1	0.50mi
2350 Redlove Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,675	$1.18	25d	1	0.52mi
2350 Dry Moss Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1420	$1,650	$1.16	45d	1	0.52mi
10542 Nye Pass San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,595	$1.11	45d	1	0.54mi
1442 Mira Ml San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,545	$1.22	45d	1	0.56mi
10151 Asta Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1625	$1,650	$1.02	14d	1	0.58mi
1355 Neria Loop San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,575	$1.24	45d	1	0.61mi
2434 Dry Moss Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	2417	$2,500	$1.03	0d	1	0.62mi
10119 Ana Hts San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,550	$1.22	12d	1	0.62mi
1407 Mira Ml San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	18d	1	0.62mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $258,499 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $258,499 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $258,499 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $258,499 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $258,499 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $258,499 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $258,499 Active 56 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $258,499 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $258,499 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $258,499 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $258,499 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $258,499 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $258,499 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $258,499 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $258,499 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

16. 2026-04-14
    listed $257,999 New 617-char remark

    Show marketing remark (617 chars)

    The Dowing - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner's suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. Estimated Completion July 2026. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,827
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,480
• − Property taxes: −$3,877
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,826
• − Management: −$1,826
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,520
• Taxable loss: −$8,391
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,014
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,786/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840950
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,362
• Composite: 22.22/100
• National rank: #8153
• State rank: #701 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,232
• Household income: $59,891
• Rent vs Own: 42.3% rent · 57.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 90% Two or more races 24% White 6% Native American 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 75%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 55% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.95%
• Current HPI: 272.0709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.83%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $258,499 LERA
• 2026-04-14 Listed $257,999 LERA