13102 Sapphire · Texas City, TX 77568

$327,275

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,198 sqft · Land · 85 Days on market

Built 2026 $149/sqft · 11% below area Est $366k · 11% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The delightful Ash floor plan is a sprawling, two-story design that is full of character. The exterior of the home is just as beautiful as the interior since the home will have a two-tone paint selection, and an exclusive landscaping package including shrubs, a caliper oak tree, and a yard that is fully sodded. Entering from your front porch, you are greeted by an elegant foyer with vinyl plank flooring that your two-car garage lies beside. Across the foyer is your convenient powder bathroom featuring a white pedestal sink and decorative mirror that flows right into your open-concept family room. The massive family room is perfect for entertaining guests and is boasting with ample amount of space. The smell of fresh cookies baking can be experienced from the family room, since the kitchen is opened up facing the living area. The expansive kitchen area is completed with granite countertops, beautiful flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances. You will love having the ability to install a kitchen island in the center of the kitchen, if you are needing more counter space. Speaking of more space, your oversized walk-in pantry will come in handy when you need to store all your food, spices, and dog treats. Integrating with your kitchen is your welcoming formal dining space with entry to your backyard in the corner of the room. Giving your backyard added value, you have the option of including a sizable covered patio! Adjacent to your. ..

Key facts

• Powder bathroom
• Fully sodded yard
• Vinyl plank flooring

Tags

• EXCLUSIVE LANDSCAPING PACKAGE
• FULLY SODDED YARD
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• POWDER BATHROOM
• OPEN CONCEPT FAMILY ROOM
• EXPANSIVE KITCHEN AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $327k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $38 ($456/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 654 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $261,269 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.37%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $366,346
• List price: $327,275
• Delta: -10.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-48,199
• Equity at exit: $48,798

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-28,739
• Equity at exit: $28,297

Cash invested: $91,637 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 654
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,613 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,716
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,284/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$549
• Net cashflow: $38

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,565

Max offer price $327,275

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,819
• Closing costs: $9,818
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	22d	1	0.64mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	991	$2,430	$2.45	2d	22	0.80mi
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$3,630	$1.60	1d	1	0.85mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	5d	1	0.89mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	11d	1	0.91mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	11d	1	1.06mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	44d	1	1.07mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	4d	2	1.13mi
114 Mustang Stampede Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1752	$2,050	$1.17	1d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $327,275 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $327,275 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $327,275 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $327,275 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $327,275 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $327,275 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $327,275 Active 75 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $327,275 Active 74 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $327,275 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $327,275 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $327,275 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $327,275 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $327,275 Active 67 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    price $327,275 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    The delightful Ash floor plan is a sprawling, two-story design that is full of character. The exterior of the home is just as beautiful as the interior since the home will have a two-tone paint selection, and an exclusive landscaping package including shrubs, a caliper oak tree, and a yard that is fully sodded. Entering from your front porch, you are greeted by an elegant foyer with vinyl plank flooring that your two-car garage lies beside. Across the foyer is your convenient powder bathroom featuring a white pedestal sink and decorative mirror that flows right into your open-concept family room. The massive family room is perfect for entertaining guests and is boasting with ample amount of space. The smell of fresh cookies baking can be experienced from the family room, since the kitchen is opened up facing the living area. The expansive kitchen area is completed with granite countertops, beautiful flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances. You will love having the ability to install a kitchen island in the center of the kitchen, if you are needing more counter space. Speaking of more space, your oversized walk-in pantry will come in handy when you need to store all your food, spices, and dog treats. Integrating with your kitchen is your welcoming formal dining space with entry to your backyard in the corner of the room. Giving your backyard added value, you have the option of including a sizable covered patio! Adjacent to your. ..

15. 2026-03-25
    listed $322,275 Active 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1498 chars)

    The delightful Ash floor plan is a sprawling, two-story design that is full of character. The exterior of the home is just as beautiful as the interior since the home will have a two-tone paint selection, and an exclusive landscaping package including shrubs, a caliper oak tree, and a yard that is fully sodded. Entering from your front porch, you are greeted by an elegant foyer with vinyl plank flooring that your two-car garage lies beside. Across the foyer is your convenient powder bathroom featuring a white pedestal sink and decorative mirror that flows right into your open-concept family room. The massive family room is perfect for entertaining guests and is boasting with ample amount of space. The smell of fresh cookies baking can be experienced from the family room, since the kitchen is opened up facing the living area. The expansive kitchen area is completed with granite countertops, beautiful flat-panel birch cabinets, designer light fixtures, and industry-leading appliances. You will love having the ability to install a kitchen island in the center of the kitchen, if you are needing more counter space. Speaking of more space, your oversized walk-in pantry will come in handy when you need to store all your food, spices, and dog treats. Integrating with your kitchen is your welcoming formal dining space with entry to your backyard in the corner of the room. Giving your backyard added value, you have the option of including a sizable covered patio! Adjacent to your. ..

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,284 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,989 · $499/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,705/yr (+$392/mo · 366.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,352
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,332
• − Property taxes: −$1,284
• − Insurance: −$2,434
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,508
• − Management: −$2,508
• − Depreciation: −$9,521
• Taxable loss: −$5,235
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,256
• After-tax cash flow: $1,712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,936
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $327,275 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Listed $322,275 Zillow

Property tax history

-6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,284 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.