689 Freehold Rd · Vista Center, NJ 08527

$349,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1956 1.00 ac lot $346/sqft · 23% below area Est $450k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Do you enjoy peaceful nature walks in a private, quiet, serene atmosphere? This original style 3 bedroom ranch is built on an acre of land with a gentle stream flowing through the wetland wooded backyard. If you enjoy calming moments this is the property to be at. Loveseat swing in the backyard. Featuring a classic white picket fence around the perimeter of the front yard, this home will take you back in time to the 1950's traditional feel. The cozy covered front porch has 2 built in bench seats perfect for enjoying a cup of tea on a summer day. Main bath featuring skylight. Home is being sold ''AS IS. Inspections will be for informational purposes only. ''

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Acre of land
• Gentle stream

Tags

• ACRE OF LAND
• GENTLE STREAM
• WETLAND WOODED BACKYARD
• LOVESEAT SWING
• CLASSIC WHITE PICKET FENCE
• COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Ranch model; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Creek/stream on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking; Stove; Microwave; Stove hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Cooling (type: Other)
• Interior features: Outdoor lighting; Swing set; Walk-out unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $349k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $327k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $327k (6.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.3% in Vista Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#507 in NJ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jackson Township School District (suburban): math 26% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #228 of 472 in NJ (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 572 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($115k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $349k implies a 159% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $326,843 (6.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.19%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $450,029
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: -22.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9 Peach Tree St	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,000 (-1%)	19mo	$400,000	$400	50
235 Perrineville Rd	0.47mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,156 (+15%)	4mo	$490,000	$424	44
613 Cosy Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,080 (+7%)	21mo	$425,000	$394	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-54,737
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-69,886
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08527

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,268 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax from tax record: −$428 /mo · $5,139/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$686
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,043

Max offer price $349,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $376	-5% $277	+0% $178	+5% $79	+10% $-19
Rent	-10% $-80	-5% $49	+0% $178	+5% $307	+10% $436
Rate	-1.0pp $354	-0.5pp $267	base $178	+0.5pp $88	+1.0pp $-4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $349,000 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $349,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $349,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $349,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $349,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $349,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-05-14
   listed $349,000 Active 777-char remark
8. 2002-03-21
   soldstatus $135,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,139 · $428/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,915 · $576/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,776/yr (+$148/mo · 34.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,221
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$5,139
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,138
• − Management: −$3,138
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$3,640
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$874
• After-tax cash flow: $3,012/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3407740
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $86,012
• Composite: 35.36/100
• National rank: #4956
• State rank: #228 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Vista Center

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #507
• US rank: #21522

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 58,991
• Household income: $115,487
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1031.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -349.94%
• Current HPI: 338.3328
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.71%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+158.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-29 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2026-05-28 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $349,000 MOMLS
• 2002-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,139 · -6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.