45 Orchard St · Marlboro, NY 12542

$189,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,066 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1940 5,750 sqft lot Est $211k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits at 45 Orchard Street in the heart of Marlboro. This 1-bedroom, 1-bath home offers the perfect canvas for renovation and customization. Featuring a traditional layout with a living room, dining room, and kitchen, the home also boasts hardwood floors hidden beneath the carpet, ready to be restored to their original charm. An unfinished basement provides additional storage or future potential, while the location offers convenience to Marlboro’s hamlet, local shops, wineries, and commuter routes. With the right vision this home has the potential to truly shine!

Key facts

• Unfinished basement
• Hardwood floors
• 5,750 sq ft lot

Tags

• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• CONVENIENCE TO LOCAL SHOPS
• CONVENIENCE TO WINERIES
• CONVENIENCE TO COMMUTER ROUTES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 1-car garage; No carport
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electric service by Central Hudson; Cable available; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront; No additional parcels

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Oil heating; No cooling system
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Full unfinished walk-out basement; Full attic
• Laundry & utility: Utilities: electricity connected

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 3.0% in Marlboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#347 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute D-.
• Marlboro Central School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #366 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Marlboro Elementary School (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #1,505 of 2,108 statewide, top 72%, 761 students, 0% FRL); Marlboro Middle School (math 36% / reading 43%, grade F, #418 of 729 statewide, top 59%, 433 students, 45% FRL); Marlboro Central High School (math 92% / reading 92%, grade A+, #171 of 1,100 statewide, top 18%, 628 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools at 27% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $53k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.2% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $184,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.52%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,068
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Orchard St	0.00mi	1/1.0	1,066 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$164	100
21 Orchard St	0.11mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,220 (+14%)	1mo	$370,000	$303	61
39 Grand St	0.15mi	2/1.0 (+1)	960 (-10%)	18mo	$190,000	$198	57
32 Western Ave	0.27mi	2/1.0 (+1)	943 (-12%)	22mo	$133,000	$141	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.97% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $114,416
• Equity at exit: $156,965

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $315,757
• Equity at exit: $324,528

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12542

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,487 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$512 /mo · $6,148/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,009

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $485	-5% $431	+0% $378	+5% $324	+10% $270
Rent	-10% $181	-5% $279	+0% $378	+5% $476	+10% $574
Rate	-1.0pp $473	-0.5pp $426	base $378	+0.5pp $328	+1.0pp $278

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Hudson West Dr Marlboro, NY	2.0–3.0	2.0	1347	$2,650	$1.97	14d	2	0.50mi
198 South St Marlboro, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,100	$2.10	14d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   listed $189,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,148 · $512/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,148 · $512/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,847
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$6,148
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,388
• − Management: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $1,812
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$435
• After-tax cash flow: $4,096/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marlboro Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3618570
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $68,737
• Composite: 43.7/100
• National rank: #2953
• State rank: #366 of 590 in NY

Livability — Marlboro

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #347
• US rank: #5847

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Marlboro, NY
• Population (ZIP): 5,859

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.97%
• Current HPI: 325.4749
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-24 Listed $189,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,148 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.