1009 Caplin St · Houston, TX 77022

$199,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 87 Days on market

Built 1982 4,321 sqft lot $137/sqft · 40% below area Est $331k · 40% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

this duplex offers a great opportunity for investors or owner-occupants seeking rental income. Conveniently situated near Loop 610 and Irvington Blvd, providing easy access to major roadways, shopping, and local amenities. The property consists of two units: Unit A: 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom Unit B: 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom Each unit has a separate layout, offering flexibility for leasing or owner occupancy. Strong rental demand in the area enhances the investment potential.

Key facts

• Built 1982
• Listed 87 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $188k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 285 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,207/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($53k/yr) (locally 1354% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $187,999 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.35%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $331,284
• List price: $199,999
• Delta: -39.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
505 Woodard St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,466 (+0%)	4mo	$495,000	$338	66
5708 Elysian St	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,388 (-5%)	1mo	$249,900	$180	61
2010 King St	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-4%)	3mo	$269,000	$192	61
304 Woodard St	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (+2%)	0mo	$435,000	$292	59
1909 Melbourne St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,364 (-7%)	5mo	$259,000	$190	57
811 Avenue Of Oaks St	0.31mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,568 (+7%)	9mo	$595,000	$379	57
516 Eleanor St	0.47mi	4/2.0	1,635 (+12%)	4mo	$429,990	$263	56
833 Dorchester St St Unit D	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,522 (+4%)	10mo	$338,990	$223	54
833 Dorchester St St Unit C	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,522 (+4%)	10mo	$338,990	$223	54
806 English St	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,586 (+8%)	2mo	$650,000	$410	52
6903 Semmes St	0.68mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,350 (-8%)	3mo	$399,900	$296	44
303 Woodard St	0.70mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,658 (+13%)	9mo	$299,000	$180	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-13,085
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $23,511
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77022

• Home prices YoY: -33.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,207 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$362 /mo · $4,339/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,891

Max offer price $199,999

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5124 Gold St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,895	$1.15	43d	1	0.88mi
2516 Ivy St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	0.97mi
1524 Evelyn St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1804	$2,800	$1.55	43d	1	0.99mi
3107 Melbourne St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	956	$1,500	$1.57	43d	1	1.09mi
1039 Hillstar St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1780	$2,750	$1.54	12d	1	1.15mi
7320 Jensen Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,176	$1.26	2d	5	1.20mi
4605 Fisk St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$3,000	$1.84	43d	1	1.25mi
1420 E 31st St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1790	$2,600	$1.45	24d	1	1.33mi
2623 Huntington Creek Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$2,299	$1.48	24d	1	1.39mi
705 Link Rd Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1850	$2,600	$1.41	7d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-07
   status Pending 473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (473 chars)

   this duplex offers a great opportunity for investors or owner-occupants seeking rental income. Conveniently situated near Loop 610 and Irvington Blvd, providing easy access to major roadways, shopping, and local amenities. The property consists of two units: Unit A: 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom Unit B: 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom Each unit has a separate layout, offering flexibility for leasing or owner occupancy. Strong rental demand in the area enhances the investment potential.

2. 2026-04-27
   price $199,999 473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (473 chars)

   this duplex offers a great opportunity for investors or owner-occupants seeking rental income. Conveniently situated near Loop 610 and Irvington Blvd, providing easy access to major roadways, shopping, and local amenities. The property consists of two units: Unit A: 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom Unit B: 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom Each unit has a separate layout, offering flexibility for leasing or owner occupancy. Strong rental demand in the area enhances the investment potential.

3. 2026-02-09
   listed $219,999 Active 473-char remark

   Show marketing remark (473 chars)

   this duplex offers a great opportunity for investors or owner-occupants seeking rental income. Conveniently situated near Loop 610 and Irvington Blvd, providing easy access to major roadways, shopping, and local amenities. The property consists of two units: Unit A: 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom Unit B: 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom Each unit has a separate layout, offering flexibility for leasing or owner occupancy. Strong rental demand in the area enhances the investment potential.

4. 2026-02-09
   historical

   Show marketing remark (473 chars)

   this duplex offers a great opportunity for investors or owner-occupants seeking rental income. Conveniently situated near Loop 610 and Irvington Blvd, providing easy access to major roadways, shopping, and local amenities. The property consists of two units: Unit A: 3 bedrooms, 1 bathroom Unit B: 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom Each unit has a separate layout, offering flexibility for leasing or owner occupancy. Strong rental demand in the area enhances the investment potential.

5. 2026-01-20
   price $229,999
6. 2026-01-01
   price $240,000
7. 2025-12-11
   listed $250,000 Active
8. 1988-09-17
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,339 · $362/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,339 · $362/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$4,339
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,119
• − Management: −$2,119
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$114
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$27
• After-tax cash flow: $3,025/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,805
• Household income: $52,739
• Rent vs Own: 49.6% rent · 50.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1354.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 24% Black 19% White 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 40% English-only · Spanish 59%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -151.13%
• Current HPI: 304.3745
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.47%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $219,999 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Price Changed $229,999 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $240,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Listed $250,000 HARMLS
• 1988-09-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,339 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.