1376 Lincoln St · Anthony, NM 88021

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,014 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 123 Days on market

Built 1970 0.25 ac lot $94/sqft · 40% above area Est $68k · 40% over ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a well-established and beloved part of town, this property sits on a generous lot ready for vision and renovation. While the home is being sold as-is, it offers a blank-canvas opportunity for buyers seeking to create significant value through strategic updates. With recent comparable showing strong returns after rehab, this is a prime chance for contractors, flippers, and DIY investors to shape a legacy property. Don't miss your chance to capitalize on a home with deep roots in the community and exceptional upside potential--schedule a showing and start your renovation journey today!

Key facts

• 0.25 acre lot
• Built 1970
• Listed 122 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $713 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#238 in NM) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Gadsden Independent Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #21 of 29 in NM (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 54 active listings in the ZIP; 964 units permitted in Doña Ana County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($657 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 123 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 123 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.14%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $67,744
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: 40.23%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

2.51% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $54,393
• Equity at exit: $40,138

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.00×
• Total profit: $133,111
• Equity at exit: $59,922

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88021

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 54
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $766/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $713

Break-even live

Break-even rent $762

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 123 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 114 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 113 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 112 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 103 DOM
17. 2026-02-16
    listed $95,000 Active 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    Nestled in a well-established and beloved part of town, this property sits on a generous lot ready for vision and renovation. While the home is being sold as-is, it offers a blank-canvas opportunity for buyers seeking to create significant value through strategic updates. With recent comparable showing strong returns after rehab, this is a prime chance for contractors, flippers, and DIY investors to shape a legacy property. Don't miss your chance to capitalize on a home with deep roots in the community and exceptional upside potential--schedule a showing and start your renovation journey today!

18. 2025-09-23
    price $100,000
19. 2025-09-06
    price $110,000
20. 2025-08-21
    price $120,000
21. 2025-07-27
    price $130,000
22. 2025-07-09
    price $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $766 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $766 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,962
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$766
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,597
• − Management: −$1,597
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $7,442
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,786
• After-tax cash flow: $6,764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gadsden Independent Schools
• NCES district ID: 3501080
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $28,461
• Composite: 21.6/100
• National rank: #8298
• State rank: #21 of 29 in NM

Livability — Anthony

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #24342

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anthony, NM
• Population (ZIP): 16,102

Population outlook (Doña Ana County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 219,177 people
• By 2030: 220,967 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 222,775 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 223,576 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 228,461 · +4.2%
• By 2100: 214,536 · -2.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 94% Two or more races 32% White 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 87%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 19% English-only · Spanish 81%

Political lean MEDSL · Doña Ana

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.8% · R 44.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.3 2016: D+18.0 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.51%
• Current HPI: 278.827
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-32.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-16 Listed $95,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $100,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $110,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-08-21 Price Changed $120,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $130,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2025-07-09 Price Changed $140,000 SNMMLS as distributed by MLS GRID

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $766 · +10.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.