22459 Blazing Star Run Land · Connerton, FL 34637

$368,090

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $190/sqft · 8% below area Est $400k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

An open floorplan is shared among the family room, dining room and kitchen in this single-story home. Separate from three secondary bedrooms, the serene owner's suite features a spa-like private bathroom designed for tranquil shared living. Completing the home is a two-car garage for storage and other versatile needs.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Family room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $368k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-280 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $328k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $287k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $287k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#596 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Connerton Elementary School (math 48% / reading 57%, grade C-, #976 of 2,144 statewide, top 46%, 958 students, 39% FRL); Pine View Middle School (math 63% / reading 52%, grade B, #157 of 571 statewide, top 28%, 1,170 students, 32% FRL); Land O' Lakes High School (math 56% / reading 64%, grade C+, #106 of 667 statewide, top 16%, 2,248 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 439 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 70% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $286,551 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.26%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $399,938
• List price: $368,090
• Delta: -7.96%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22400 Blazing Star Run	0.06mi	4/2.0	1,936 (0%)	4mo	$380,090	$196	94
22588 Nebula Way	0.12mi	4/2.0	1,936 (0%)	8mo	$355,390	$184	88
22640 Nebula Way	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,936 (0%)	7mo	$370,000	$191	87
22450 Nebula	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,936 (0%)	10mo	$417,000	$215	85
22496 Nebula Way	0.08mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-6%)	10mo	$384,900	$212	78
22428 Nebula Way	0.09mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-6%)	12mo	$379,240	$209	76
22103 Blazing Star Run	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,936 (0%)	12mo	$400,000	$207	75
8182 Painted Sky Pl	0.31mi	4/2.5	1,870 (-3%)	6mo	$350,900	$188	73
22162 Nebula Way	0.30mi	4/2.0	1,810 (-6%)	3mo	$355,000	$196	73
8042 Painted Sky Pl	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,936 (0%)	14mo	$382,775	$198	69
9205 Shadyside Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,061 (+6%)	4mo	$417,000	$202	52
21752 Indian Summer Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,092 (+8%)	4mo	$497,500	$238	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.54% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-54,362
• Equity at exit: $79,433

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-49,050
• Equity at exit: $75,627

Cash invested: $103,065 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 56 active · 14 under contract
• Months of supply: 16.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $387,695 ($196/sqft)
• Median days on market: 30 d
• This list price: 34% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +5.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34637

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 439
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,866 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,930
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$460 /mo · $5,521/yr
• Insurance: −$153
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$602
• Net cashflow: $-280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,220

Max offer price $327,569

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-26	-5% $-153	+0% $-280	+5% $-407	+10% $-534
Rent	-10% $-506	-5% $-393	+0% $-280	+5% $-167	+10% $-54
Rate	-1.0pp $-95	-0.5pp $-186	base $-280	+0.5pp $-375	+1.0pp $-472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,022
• Closing costs: $11,043
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22430 Blazing Star Run Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1936	$2,550	$1.32	40d	1	0.05mi
22310 Blazing Star Run Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,450	$1.31	75d	1	0.15mi
8879 Coqui Song Ln Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1851	$2,300	$1.24	44d	1	0.21mi
8862 Gallantree Pl Unit 8862-Townhouse Land O' Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,195	$1.37	108d	1	0.36mi
8938 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1851	$2,550	$1.38	79d	1	0.39mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,145	$1.34	44d	1	0.41mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,050	$1.28	29d	1	0.41mi
8948 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,050	$1.28	32d	1	0.41mi
9001 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,100	$1.31	62d	1	0.46mi
9094 Gallantree Pl Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,100	$1.31	10d	1	0.53mi
8897 Flourish Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,149	$1.33	10d	1	0.68mi
21816 Crest Meadow Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	3.0	2061	$3,200	$1.55	64d	1	0.74mi
8930 Ehren Cutoff Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,200	$1.70	10d	1	0.77mi
21648 Southern Charm Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.0	2560	$3,000	$1.17	40d	1	0.79mi
9344 Bella Vita Cir Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2072	$2,900	$1.40	75d	1	0.93mi
8827 Sentiero Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,795	$1.36	78d	1	1.02mi
8827 Sentiero Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$2,795	$1.36	74d	1	1.02mi
21286 Wistful Yearn Dr Land O Lakes, FL	5.0	3.5	2492	$3,600	$1.44	7d	1	1.14mi
9645 Carabiner Way Land O' Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1870	$2,500	$1.34	77d	1	1.17mi
9676 Nyssa St Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,050	$1.28	80d	1	1.22mi
21818 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,250	$1.41	110d	1	1.24mi
21881 Lyonia Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,000	$1.25	4d	1	1.25mi
21869 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1601	$2,400	$1.50	120d	1	1.30mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	100d	1	1.31mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,945	$1.21	77d	1	1.31mi
21831 Adriatic Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1601	$1,995	$1.25	95d	1	1.31mi
9750 Campanula Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	2208	$2,700	$1.22	120d	1	1.33mi
7847 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1807	$2,131	$1.18	44d	1	1.35mi
7843 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,050	$1.03	0d	1	1.36mi
7843 Foxgrove Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.5	1985	$2,050	$1.03	10d	1	1.36mi
9890 Red Bay Loop Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1949	$2,595	$1.33	78d	1	1.45mi
7076 Gulf Cypress Ave Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,450	$1.34	0d	1	1.49mi
7076 Gulf Cypress Ave Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1826	$2,450	$1.34	10d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-24
   days on market $368,090 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $368,090 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $368,090 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $367,590 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $367,590 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   price $367,590 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $367,090 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $367,090 Active 5 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   remarks 319-char remark
10. 2026-06-08
    listed $366,590 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,619
• − Property taxes: −$5,521
• − Insurance: −$1,840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,751
• − Management: −$2,751
• − Depreciation: −$10,708
• Taxable loss: −$9,804
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,353
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,680–$29,040 screening

This single-story home features a modern open floorplan with good condition and minimal repairs needed. It is move-in ready with a good resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior (every 5 years) — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace carpet in living areas (every 10 years) — Improves comfort and value ↑
• Resale Upgrade kitchen appliances (every 10 years) — Modernizes the kitchen and attracts buyers ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 57/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Connerton Elementary School C- FL #976/2,144 Nat'l #11,114/41,679 Middle Pine View Middle School B FL #157/571 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Land O' Lakes High School C+ FL #106/667 Nat'l #3,545/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

C Composite livability gradescore 66/100

Livability — Connerton

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #596
• US rank: #11437

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Connerton, FL
• County: Pasco County · 570,045 people
• City population: 11,398
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,049
• Household income: $115,214
• Rent vs Own: 8.7% rent · 91.3% own

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.54%
• Current HPI: 126.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B