23725 Glowing Embers Dr · Elgin, TX 78621

$237,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 21 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition Est $248k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price: $228,999

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family home (spec, Newlin plan)
• Exterior features: Living area listed as 1474

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home (new construction inventory type); Plan name: Newlin

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $238k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-41 ($-486/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (14.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (14.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.4% in Elgin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#167 in TX, #4,404 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Elgin ISD (rural): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #741 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Neidig El (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 599 students, 79% FRL); Elgin Middle (math 22% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,327 of 1,662 statewide, top 81%, 780 students, 82% FRL); Elgin H S (math 12% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 1,672 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 814 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.1% rent growth), your $67k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $203,068 (14.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.73%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $247,632
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23817 Glowing Embers Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	1mo	$221,990	$151	96
13400 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+2%)	1mo	$257,990	$171	80
13316 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+2%)	1mo	$250,999	$166	80
23501 Firelight Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-4%)	2mo	$228,990	$162	79
13324 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+2%)	2mo	$252,990	$168	79
13321 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-4%)	1mo	$237,999	$169	78
13405 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,411 (-4%)	2mo	$237,990	$169	77
13309 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-5%)	2mo	$226,990	$162	76
13421 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-5%)	1mo	$241,999	$173	76
23821 Glowing Embers Dr	0.06mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	1mo	$245,999	$148	69
13409 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,575 (+7%)	1mo	$248,990	$158	68
13329 Trumpet Creeper Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-14%)	2mo	$220,990	$175	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $127,316
• Equity at exit: $214,408

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $377,515
• Equity at exit: $462,380

Cash invested: $66,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78621

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 814
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,031 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,248
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$297 /mo · $3,570/yr
• Insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,082

Max offer price $232,136

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $124	-5% $42	+0% $-41	+5% $-123	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-201	-5% $-121	+0% $-41	+5% $40	+10% $120
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $20	base $-41	+0.5pp $-102	+1.0pp $-165

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,500
• Closing costs: $7,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13305 Banquete St Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1707	$1,995	$1.17	45d	1	0.41mi
13501 Mussel Run Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	17d	1	0.42mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	17d	1	0.46mi
13124 Maidenhair Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1448	$1,775	$1.23	25d	1	0.46mi
13520 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,850	$1.16	3d	1	0.54mi
13604 Menard Way Elgin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,875	$1.27	25d	1	0.56mi
13725 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,100	$1.17	25d	1	0.65mi
13804 Knights Branch Dr Elgin, TX	3.0	2.5	1427	$1,900	$1.33	6d	1	0.67mi
13121 Blackeyed Susan Trl Elgin, TX	4.0	2.0	1586	$1,800	$1.13	19d	1	0.70mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,675	$1.43	25d	1	0.81mi
14129 Tordillo Dr Unit NA Elgin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,495	$1.33	0d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $237,999 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,999 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $237,999 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $238,999 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $238,999 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $238,999 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   price $238,999 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $228,999 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $228,999 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $228,999 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $228,999 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $228,999 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $228,999 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    remarks 399-char remark
15. 2026-06-01
    listed $228,999 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,368
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,332
• − Property taxes: −$3,570
• − Insurance: −$1,190
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,949
• − Management: −$1,949
• − Depreciation: −$6,924
• Taxable loss: −$4,546
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,091
• After-tax cash flow: $605/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good foundation, structure, and roof. The exterior and landscaping are well-maintained. The interior walls and paint are in good condition. The kitchen and bathrooms need minor repairs and updates to lighting and decor. The home is move-in ready with a good rehab level of cosmetic.

Repairs flagged

• Minor kitchen lighting — Outdated lighting fixtures.
• Minor bathroom lighting — Outdated lighting fixtures.
• Minor kitchen decor — Outdated decor.
• Minor bathroom decor — Outdated decor.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Update kitchen and bathroom lighting — Modern lighting enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace outdated kitchen and bathroom decor — Fresh decor improves the home's appeal and can attract more buyers/renters.
• Both Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase the home's value.
• Both Replace kitchen and bathroom light fixtures — Modern lighting enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen lighting · Outdated lighting fixtures.	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom lighting · Outdated lighting fixtures.	Minor	$500–3,000
kitchen decor · Outdated decor.	Minor	$500–3,000
bathroom decor · Outdated decor.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$2,000–12,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Update kitchen and bathroom lighting — Modern lighting enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace outdated kitchen and bathroom decor — Fresh decor improves the home's appeal and can attract more buyers/renters. ↑
• Both Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and can increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Replace kitchen and bathroom light fixtures — Modern lighting enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elgin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4818360
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $55,176
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8749
• State rank: #741 of 826 in TX

Livability — Elgin

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #167
• US rank: #4404

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bastrop County · 68,601 people
• City population: 27,860
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,411
• Household income: $98,534
• Rent vs Own: 18.9% rent · 81.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 235.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 38% Two or more races 19% Black 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 38%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 36%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 29.47%
• Current HPI: 416.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B