164 Willow Pkwy · Oroville, CA 95966

$49,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · Manufactured public records · 570 Days on market

Built 1991 Est $50k · at est. ↓ 26% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Your Serene Retirement Awaits. Discover the perfect blend of comfort and community at Olive Hill Mobile Home Park. This charming 55+ senior living community offers a tranquil lifestyle with a host of amenities to enrich your golden years. Cozy Home: Enjoy the convenience of a well-maintained home featuring a gas range, refrigerator, dishwasher, and washer/dryer. Climate Control: Stay comfortable year-round with a recently replaced New HVAC system. Easy Living: Benefit from an EZ access walking ramp and a carport for added convenience. Community Amenities: Immerse yourself in a vibrant community with a clubhouse, swimming pool, recreational facilities, billiard room, library, fitness cente

Key facts

• Carport
• Community pool
• Built 1991

Tags

• RECENTLY UPGRADED HVAC SYSTEM
• EZ ACCESS WALKING RAMP
• CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Double body type (multi-unit/mobile classification)
• Financial info: Land lease (monthly): $974 — rent includes electric, trash, water, sewer; Manager approval required; Pets allowed with breed restrictions
• HOA & community: Part of association; Association amenities: pool, dog park, clubhouse, grounds maintenance; Senior community; Park name: Olive Hill; Community features: watersports, golf course, dog park, hiking, fishing, foothills, lake, park

Exterior

• Parking: RV access/parking; Boat parking; Attached carport; Guest parking; Private paved road with maintained surface
• Utilities: Public sewer; District/public water; 220V in laundry
• Home design: Single-story; Mobile home (Palm Manor model, 20 x 52) remains on site; Faces east
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Wood skirt; Built in (year source: other)
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Patio; Community pool; Close to clubhouse; Has view; Ramp to main level; 2+ access exits; Parking accessibility

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Refrigerator; Gas range; Dishwasher; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Entry level: 1
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating / central furnace; Central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Double-pane windows; Front and back entry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in individual room; Washer included; Dryer included; Electric dryer hookup (220V in laundry)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 31.1% vs local median 4.6% in Oroville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,136 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools D, cost of living D, crime F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 570 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 570 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 31.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 88.52%
• DSCR: 4.94
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $49,735
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Sycamore	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+4%)	2mo	$12,500	$12	89
130 Sycamore	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,148 (+13%)	0mo	$26,000	$23	74
135 Sycamore #135	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+4%)	20mo	$30,000	$28	73
227 Ash Pkwy	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+12%)	8mo	$16,900	$15	70
127 Sycamore	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	7mo	$25,000	$22	67
119 Sycamore Pkwy	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	11mo	$57,000	$49	64
198 Cedar Pkwy #198	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+14%)	14mo	$75,000	$65	64
138 Sycamore	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+12%)	16mo	$60,000	$53	63
2673 Fort Wayne St	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+2%)	19mo	$168,000	$162	62
185 Cedar Pkwy	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	880 (-13%)	22mo	$60,000	$68	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 89.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.12×
• Total profit: $57,562
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.64×
• Total profit: $134,674
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,701 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $371/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $1,031

Break-even live

Break-even rent $397

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,059	-5% $1,045	+0% $1,031	+5% $1,017	+10% $1,002
Rent	-10% $896	-5% $963	+0% $1,031	+5% $1,098	+10% $1,165
Rate	-1.0pp $1,056	-0.5pp $1,043	base $1,031	+0.5pp $1,018	+1.0pp $1,005

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3250 Spencer Ave Oroville, CA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,400	$1.56	14d	1	0.45mi
2127 B St Oroville, CA	3.0	2.0	980	$1,400	$1.43	14d	1	0.47mi
1945 Fort Wayne St Oroville, CA	3.0	1.0	876	$1,950	$2.23	14d	1	0.61mi
2850 Myers St Oroville, CA	3.0	2.0	1095	$2,200	$2.01	14d	1	0.62mi
4325 Lower Wyandotte Rd Oroville, CA	3.0	2.0	1152	$2,000	$1.74	14d	1	0.69mi
2739 Gilmore Ln Unit 4 Oroville, CA	2.0	1.0	720	$1,595	$2.22	14d	1	0.70mi
2737 Gilmore Ln Unit 1 Oroville, CA	2.0	1.0	720	$1,595	$2.22	14d	1	0.71mi
1189 High St Oroville, CA	3.0	2.0	1462	$1,850	$1.27	14d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 570 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 569 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 568 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 567 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 566 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 564 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 563 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 561 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 560 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 559 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 558 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,900 Active 554 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 553 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 552 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 551 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 550 DOM
17. 2026-04-02
    price $49,900
18. 2025-12-09
    price $51,900
19. 2025-09-06
    price $59,900
20. 2025-04-01
    price $63,000
21. 2025-02-01
    price $66,000
22. 2024-11-26
    listed $67,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $371 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $379 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$8/yr (+$1/mo · 2.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,416
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$371
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,633
• − Management: −$1,633
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $12,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,948
• After-tax cash flow: $9,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oroville

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1136
• US rank: #25715

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oroville, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• City population: 49,684
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-25.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $49,900 CRMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $51,900 CRMLS
• 2025-09-06 Price Changed $59,900 CRMLS
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $63,000 CRMLS
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $66,000 CRMLS
• 2024-11-26 Listed $67,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $371 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.