115 Avian Ln · Jackson, MS 39204

$98,800

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,308 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1976 0.84 ac lot Est $157k · 37% under ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

For the fixer upper or investor buyer, here is an opportunity for you! This house located in Wingfield Place of Jackson, MS has both the interior space available and a fenced in backyard with a covered back porch. Space inside of the house includes 4 bedrooms * * * 3 full baths * * * 1 half bath * * * Living Room with Fireplace * * * kitchen with Eat In area * * * Dining Room with approximately +/- 2308 square feet and a 2-car garage. Check out the photos to see more information and reach out to your real estate agent to schedule your showing.

Key facts

• Fenced in backyard
• Covered back porch
• 0.84 acre lot

Tags

• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• COVERED BACK PORCH
• INTERIOR SPACE AVAILABLE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family house; One and one-half stories; Living area reported from public records
• Construction: Brick construction; Slab foundation; Built (year reported from public records)
• Exterior features: Asphalt shingle roof

Interior

• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (4 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Fireplace in the living room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Wilkins Elementary School (math 2% / reading 12%, grade F, #337 of 375 statewide, top 94%, 316 students, 100% FRL); Peeples Middle School (math 11% / reading 15%, grade F, #141 of 179 statewide, top 79%, 298 students, 100% FRL); Forest Hill High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #168 of 197 statewide, top 86%, 991 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+13.6%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,610/mo this rent would consume 64% of the median local household income ($30k/yr) (locally 1099% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($683 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $92,872 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.95%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $156,944
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1564 Wingfield Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,340 (+1%)	23mo	$160,000	$68	53
1771 Casteel Dr	0.57mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,061 (-11%)	17mo	$59,900	$29	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.00×
• Total profit: $82,984
• Equity at exit: $89,007

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.8%
• Equity multiple: 10.03×
• Total profit: $249,720
• Equity at exit: $191,947

Cash invested: $27,664 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39204

• Home prices YoY: 8.0%
• Rents YoY: 13.6%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,610 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$518
• Tax from tax record: −$391 /mo · $4,691/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,203

Max offer price $98,800

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,700
• Closing costs: $2,964
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
125 Wingfield Ct Unit NA Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1797	$1,650	$0.92	23d	1	0.15mi
1848 Willaneel Dr Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1623	$1,100	$0.68	13d	1	0.95mi
2729 Carleton St Jackson, MS	4.0	2.0	1666	$1,575	$0.95	13d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-07
   price $98,800
3. 2026-02-25
   listed $104,000 Active
4. 1995-09-28
   soldstatus
5. 1984-12-20
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,691 · $391/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,691 · $391/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,534
• − Property taxes: −$4,691
• − Insurance: −$494
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$2,874
• Taxable income: $2,633
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$632
• After-tax cash flow: $3,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 13,249
• Household income: $30,237
• Rent vs Own: 66.3% rent · 33.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1099.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 90% White 5% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.25%
• Current HPI: 233.9061
• Rent YoY: ▲ 13.56%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $98,800 MLSU
• 2026-02-25 Listed $104,000 MLSU
• 1995-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-12-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+11.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,691 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.