742 27th St · San Leon, TX 77539

$175,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,262 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 2011 7,013 sqft lot $139/sqft · 35% below area Est $271k · 35% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor opportunity! Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home on a corner lot with mature trees. Ideal for rental or weekend retreat, close to San Leon Elementary. Convenient location near HWY 146 and I-45, minutes from local dining in San Leon and Bacliff. Short drive to Kemah or Galveston. Sold as is.

Key facts

• Corner lot
• Mature trees
• Short drive to kemah

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MATURE TREES
• MINUTES FROM LOCAL DINING
• SHORT DRIVE TO KEMAH
• SHORT DRIVE TO GALVESTON

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $164k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.8% in San Leon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#899 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 664 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($164k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $164,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.50%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,245
• List price: $175,000
• Delta: -35.48%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
615 28th St	0.27mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,376 (+9%)	3mo	$299,900	$218	61
2786 Avenue H	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,170 (-7%)	23mo	$90,000	$77	53
2730 Avenue D	0.53mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,271 (+1%)	22mo	$275,000	$216	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,206
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-30,916
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 664
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,085 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$432 /mo · $5,190/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,886

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2735 Broadway St Unit 1546437P San Leon, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$4,994	$2.75	12d	1	0.26mi
339 Sea Breeze Dr Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.5	1456	$1,985	$1.36	4d	1	1.20mi
5223 Gulf Stream Ln Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.5	1778	$2,080	$1.17	10d	1	1.20mi
5139 Misty Ln Bacliff, TX	3.0	2.0	1794	$1,970	$1.10	10d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $175,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $175,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $175,000 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $175,000 Active 62 DOM
7. 2026-03-30
   listed $175,000 Active 292-char remark

   Show marketing remark (292 chars)

   Investor opportunity! Charming 3 bed, 2 bath home on a corner lot with mature trees. Ideal for rental or weekend retreat, close to San Leon Elementary. Convenient location near HWY 146 and I-45, minutes from local dining in San Leon and Bacliff. Short drive to Kemah or Galveston. Sold as is.

8. 2025-09-12
   soldstatus
9. 2021-02-24
   soldstatus
10. 2018-08-07
    soldstatus
11. 2018-07-30
    soldstatus Sold 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    RECENTLY RENOVATED 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME ! WALKING DISTANCE TO THE SCHOOL ON A CORNER LOT WITH LARGE MATURE TREES. FRESHLY PAINTED, WITH NEW FLOORS. NICE SIZE YARD WITH FRONT AND BACK PORCH. EXCELLENT INVESTMENT FOR RENTAL , OR FIRST TIME HOME BUYER , WEEKEND GET AWAY! GREAT LOCATION WITH EASY ACCESS TO HWY 146 AND I-45.

12. 2018-07-08
    status Pending 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    RECENTLY RENOVATED 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME ! WALKING DISTANCE TO THE SCHOOL ON A CORNER LOT WITH LARGE MATURE TREES. FRESHLY PAINTED, WITH NEW FLOORS. NICE SIZE YARD WITH FRONT AND BACK PORCH. EXCELLENT INVESTMENT FOR RENTAL , OR FIRST TIME HOME BUYER , WEEKEND GET AWAY! GREAT LOCATION WITH EASY ACCESS TO HWY 146 AND I-45.

13. 2018-06-28
    status Option Pending 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    RECENTLY RENOVATED 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME ! WALKING DISTANCE TO THE SCHOOL ON A CORNER LOT WITH LARGE MATURE TREES. FRESHLY PAINTED, WITH NEW FLOORS. NICE SIZE YARD WITH FRONT AND BACK PORCH. EXCELLENT INVESTMENT FOR RENTAL , OR FIRST TIME HOME BUYER , WEEKEND GET AWAY! GREAT LOCATION WITH EASY ACCESS TO HWY 146 AND I-45.

14. 2018-05-21
    listed $145,000 Active 322-char remark

    Show marketing remark (322 chars)

    RECENTLY RENOVATED 3 BEDROOM 2 BATH HOME ! WALKING DISTANCE TO THE SCHOOL ON A CORNER LOT WITH LARGE MATURE TREES. FRESHLY PAINTED, WITH NEW FLOORS. NICE SIZE YARD WITH FRONT AND BACK PORCH. EXCELLENT INVESTMENT FOR RENTAL , OR FIRST TIME HOME BUYER , WEEKEND GET AWAY! GREAT LOCATION WITH EASY ACCESS TO HWY 146 AND I-45.

15. 2005-02-26
    historical
16. 2004-08-07
    listed $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,190 · $432/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,190 · $432/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$5,190
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,002
• − Management: −$2,002
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$734
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$176
• After-tax cash flow: $2,072/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Leon

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #899
• US rank: #16159

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Leon, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+105.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $175,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-08-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-07-30 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2018-07-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-06-28 Pending — HARMLS
• 2018-05-21 Listed $145,000 HARMLS
• 2005-02-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-08-07 Listed $85,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,190 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.