16840 W Jaguar Ln · Avra Valley, AZ 85653

$249,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2004 1.01 ac lot $109/sqft · 8% below area Est $270k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious home in the heart of Avra Valley on an acre lot! All paved roads, close to shopping, schools, & I-10! Detached garage, no HOA, and plenty of room for toys & animals! Tons of potential for investors or buyers looking to put in their own sweat equity! Almost 2300 sq ft and a HUGE bonus room that could be a family room, office, or 5th bedroom. Spacious kitchen with island and dining area. Open concept and split bedroom floorplan! Large primary suite with two closets, garden tub, and separate shower. Entire property is fenced, flat, and usable. Horse friendly with an enclosed area for horses or other animals! RV hookup for water & sewer (buyer to verify). Property is being sold as-is and priced accordingly. Needs new HVAC, some flooring, and complete refresh throughout.

Key facts

• Huge bonus room
• Close to schools
• Paved roads

Tags

• ACRE LOT
• HUGE BONUS ROOM
• PAVED ROADS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO I-10

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $378 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (1.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.9% in Avra Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#275 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 412 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.51%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $269,792
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -7.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16722 W Spur Bell Ln	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,240 (-2%)	13mo	$302,000	$135	65
11240 N Derringer Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0	2,128 (-7%)	22mo	$380,000	$179	62
10983 N Coyote Cove Rd	0.49mi	4/2.0	2,432 (+7%)	18mo	$340,000	$140	51
17140 W Placita Rodrigo	0.54mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,128 (-7%)	9mo	$280,000	$132	51
11643 N Derringer Rd	0.56mi	4/2.5	2,128 (-7%)	13mo	$325,000	$153	50
16940 W Falcon Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,135 (-6%)	19mo	$275,000	$129	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-15,247
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $21,939
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85653

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 412
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,463 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,896/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$517
• Net cashflow: $378

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,984

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $519	-5% $449	+0% $378	+5% $308	+10% $237
Rent	-10% $184	-5% $281	+0% $378	+5% $475	+10% $573
Rate	-1.0pp $504	-0.5pp $442	base $378	+0.5pp $314	+1.0pp $248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $249,000 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Spacious home in the heart of Avra Valley on an acre lot! All paved roads, close to shopping, schools, & I-10! Detached garage, no HOA, and plenty of room for toys & animals! Tons of potential for investors or buyers looking to put in their own sweat equity! Almost 2300 sq ft and a HUGE bonus room that could be a family room, office, or 5th bedroom. Spacious kitchen with island and dining area. Open concept and split bedroom floorplan! Large primary suite with two closets, garden tub, and separate shower. Entire property is fenced, flat, and usable. Horse friendly with an enclosed area for horses or other animals! RV hookup for water & sewer (buyer to verify). Property is being sold as-is and priced accordingly. Needs new HVAC, some flooring, and complete refresh throughout.

17. 2026-04-17
    listed $250,000 Active 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Spacious home in the heart of Avra Valley on an acre lot! All paved roads, close to shopping, schools, & I-10! Detached garage, no HOA, and plenty of room for toys & animals! Tons of potential for investors or buyers looking to put in their own sweat equity! Almost 2300 sq ft and a HUGE bonus room that could be a family room, office, or 5th bedroom. Spacious kitchen with island and dining area. Open concept and split bedroom floorplan! Large primary suite with two closets, garden tub, and separate shower. Entire property is fenced, flat, and usable. Horse friendly with an enclosed area for horses or other animals! RV hookup for water & sewer (buyer to verify). Property is being sold as-is and priced accordingly. Needs new HVAC, some flooring, and complete refresh throughout.

18. 2021-04-16
    soldstatus $260,000 Closed 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath Manufactured home in popular area of Avra Valley.This home has a bonus family room. completely fenced-in, Large flat acre low care graveled lot with separate 2 car garage and additional RV hookup for water and sewer. Large open kitchen with island and separate dining area. Open split floor plan. Has laundry room and large master suite with garden tub and separate shower. Huge Bonus room, game room or easily convert to second master suite horse friendly property.

19. 2021-04-15
    soldstatus $260,000
20. 2021-03-09
    historical Active Contingent 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath Manufactured home in popular area of Avra Valley.This home has a bonus family room. completely fenced-in, Large flat acre low care graveled lot with separate 2 car garage and additional RV hookup for water and sewer. Large open kitchen with island and separate dining area. Open split floor plan. Has laundry room and large master suite with garden tub and separate shower. Huge Bonus room, game room or easily convert to second master suite horse friendly property.

21. 2021-02-28
    listed $249,900 Active 484-char remark

    Show marketing remark (484 chars)

    4 bedroom 2 bath Manufactured home in popular area of Avra Valley.This home has a bonus family room. completely fenced-in, Large flat acre low care graveled lot with separate 2 car garage and additional RV hookup for water and sewer. Large open kitchen with island and separate dining area. Open split floor plan. Has laundry room and large master suite with garden tub and separate shower. Huge Bonus room, game room or easily convert to second master suite horse friendly property.

22. 2018-03-08
    status Pending
23. 2018-03-07
    soldstatus $124,900 Closed
24. 2018-03-07
    soldstatus $124,900
25. 2018-01-25
    historical Active Contingent
26. 2018-01-19
    price $124,900
27. 2017-12-28
    listed $134,900 Active
28. 1995-05-08
    soldstatus $1,140,000
29. 1980-10-01
    soldstatus $1,400,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,896 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,896 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,556
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$1,896
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,364
• − Management: −$2,364
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $494
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$119
• After-tax cash flow: $4,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Avra Valley

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #23869

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Avra Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 23,574
• Household income: $86,154
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.29%
• Current HPI: 249.3403
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.43%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-82.2% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $249,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-17 Listed $250,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-04-16 Sold (MLS) $260,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-04-15 Sold (Public Records) $260,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-09 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2021-02-28 Listed $249,900 MLSSAZ
• 2018-03-08 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2018-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $124,900 Public Records
• 2018-03-07 Sold (MLS) $124,900 MLSSAZ
• 2018-01-25 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2018-01-19 Price Changed $124,900 MLSSAZ
• 2017-12-28 Listed $134,900 MLSSAZ
• 1995-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $1,140,000 Public Records
• 1980-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $1,400,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,896 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.